[0:00]and that the dollar-denominated kind of transactions were controlling the whole world,
[0:08]between players that had nothing to do with the dollar.
[0:12]And now, turning more and more energy independent,
[0:18]you can decide to be here, Canada, Mexico, the two big oceans.
[0:25]You can do quite well alone for the immediate and medium,
[0:32]but if for a generation America will go kind of isolationist,
[0:42]you will see others, there is no vacuum.
[0:46]Not one player will cover the world, but America will be weakened.
[0:51]It will start with, it will gradually infiltrate into any area.
[0:56]It will start.
[0:57]It will start with, probably even with this mass kind of, the UN is still here.
[1:09]It's just because America is the real player.
[1:12]You know, you become less and less involved, you become, you will start to feel it in trade areas.
[1:18]Some of the trade wars will end differently if America is not a real player on the world arena.
[1:24]But it sounds like that's a thesis, it's an interesting thesis,
[1:29]but it's a, you know, it may be.
[1:31]It may be the opposite of that.
[1:33]It may be that by disengaging, America is actually better off for the next any number of generations.
[1:45]I mean, we don't really need this involvement.
[1:47]We don't really benefit from it.
[1:49]No, I think, yeah.
[1:50]We don't really improve anybody else's situation.
[1:53]By definition, it's a speculation.
[1:57]I don't mean to come back to tell you.
[2:00]It's my opinion.
[2:01]But it's my opinion after looking, watching the world for many, many years.
[2:05]We became dramatically more, dramatically.
[2:11]I remember I said 30 years ago, sitting down with Bill Casey,
[2:17]who was head of our intelligence, we discussed the world.
[2:24]Pakistan was now in the situation where Iran is now.
[2:28]And America was, on one hand, the king of the world,
[2:31]and on the other hand, totally independent of the rest of the world.
[2:36]Except for the relationship.
[2:37]And if I compare the situation then to the situation now,
[2:44]not to mention what I can read about Taiwan.
[2:47]I was a kid immediately after.
[2:52]It changed dramatically in the sense that everything becomes interrelated.
[2:56]The symbiotic relationship that I was mentioning between America and China,
[3:00]which neither side really laughed, but circumcised, will put you together,
[3:06]is something you could not think of 40 years ago.
[3:09]And now it's inevitable.
[3:10]You have to do it somehow.
[3:12]And when it comes to the way, when you see the subtle way that the world is interwined to each other,
[3:19]products are produced, you don't have to know the type of situation.
[3:22]Probably with robotics in manufacturing, you can bring some of the work from the Far East back home and do it.
[3:29]But the situation where, until when I was young, America's trade with the world was for some 4% of GDP.
[3:38]It's probably four times now.
[3:41]Marvelous.
[3:42]And it becomes more and more interwined.
[3:46]Now, one of the sources of power in America is this international approach.
[3:52]You know, basically you say, what the hell is there to do if diplomatically or economically we create fortress America?
[4:02]It doesn't have to do with other sources of exit.
[4:05]But part of your source of exit was the inflow of talents from all around the world into this,
[4:12]a beacon of freedom that was also leading the world, carrying the mission.
[4:18]There are many benefits to this policy of being a kind of beacon of enlightenment and advancement to the rest of the world.
[4:27]From the former Soviet Union, not to mention the German intellectuals in the late 30s of the previous generation,
[4:37]to what happens now with the Chinese young capability.
[4:42]You know, the young guys, they all come here, not just because it's better education cases,
[4:50]but because it's a combination of better education, a better example of how you only could live.
[4:55]But that comes from your being a signal of how the world should have been looked like.
[5:02]Being less cynical than Chinese.
[5:06]It's interdependent as well.
[5:10]Once you become isolationist, it will take a shape.
[5:14]It will take a shape of being really not intervening.
[5:16]So you will see tragedies happen on other sides of the world, and you won't be there.
[5:22]And that will undercut the moral position of America.
[5:27]And America is unlike any other country on earth, any other country based on history,
[5:33]ethnic roots, culture, relationship, whatever.
[5:37]Here it's a country, a state, based on idea.
[5:42]The idea is to let everyone go.
[5:43]The idea is to let everyone go.
[5:44]The idea is to let everyone go.
[5:44]The idea is to let everyone go.
[5:44]The idea is to let everyone do this.
[5:49]People are not born equal.
[5:51]That's an urban legend, or misogynist.
[5:54]They are born equal.
[5:55]But here we are creating a unique ecosystem, where they at least have almost equal opportunity.
[6:04]That will not remain the same.
[6:06]It cannot remain the same, because in order to be the source of attraction,
[6:10]in the long term, you have to carry certain value.
[6:12]And you cannot carry it if it's just talk.
[6:15]In a sense, this is a perfect example. If it could have worked just by talking about it, there is no better executive branch.
[6:27]What are the opportunities in the Middle East now, the most immediate, low-hanging fruit opportunities?
[6:38]For what? For political advancement? I think that most of it is business, because they take money.
[6:49]It looks like a sticky, dark fluid, but they take money out of the ground or some good, and they have a lot of money.
[6:59]So they do things that no one else can do in technology, in education, in business.
[7:06]They can intervene in major projects.
[7:08]For example, American corporations, leading duck companies, they can run assets that are low-hanging fruit.
[7:19]They become more and more sophisticated. Ten years ago, they needed all the websites of the world to help them.
[7:26]With time, they become more and more kind of…
[7:28]So is it a division now in the Middle East between the nations that have enough wealth,
[7:36]that have enough money, that have enough resources?
[7:37]Yes.
[7:38]They have enough wealth to guarantee or provide some level of stability, and then the others who are…
[7:46]Culturally, we are stricken. It's the worst place, culturally.
[7:53]Because Islam is not right. It's not like Christianity or Judaism, not to mention Confucianism or the other Eastern religions, so to speak, which are very tolerant.
[8:09]It's not about religion, it's about social order.
[8:12]Islam is still extremely active, a vital kind of religion that gives answers for the frustrated guys,
[8:28]and promise of conquering somehow the world.
[8:31]And that's crazy because, you know, the women are still kind of suppressed.
[8:38]It's such a normal society.
[8:40]And it can take…
[8:41]You cannot show them the light and it won't.
[8:45]Much worse atrocities happened in Europe under, you know, a hundred years after Heinlein, I don't know,
[8:56]probably a hundred years after Beethoven or Schiller or whatever, you know.
[9:01]And it was done by the most advanced parts of our Western civilization.
[9:07]Which means that all culture is like ice in the spring.
[9:14]It's not really stable.
[9:16]But at least you can turn the other way around very fast.
[9:20]Because the moment the Nazis were defeated, there was Konrad Adenauer, someone on the French side,
[9:27]it's great fun within generations.
[9:30]They get fed up of 400 years of fighting since Martin Luther, the original.
[9:36]Here you see that when you talk to them seriously…
[9:40]I told Jeffrey about one of the members of the inner circle of the Saudi court who told me
[9:48]Islam needs Martin Luther to reform Islam, to make it something about accountability, about your behavior.
[9:58]But it's good and bad news.
[10:01]It's good news that someone who brought with a source of Wahhabi madrasa, he thinks this way.
[10:08]But bad news is that…
[10:10]When you look at the European example, after Martin Luther took 150 years of religious wars,
[10:16]then 300 years of national wars, including two world wars,
[10:21]before Europe became a dying paradise, I call it.
[10:24]But in Israel it's still… everything is crazy.
[10:28]It's still vibrating of primal energies.
[10:35]There is no Václav Havel waiting for a revolution in any Arab country.
[10:40]There is no whiteness.
[10:42]So from the Israeli point of view, this is an opportunistic time, a scary time, a…
[10:52]It shows you that…
[10:55]I do two and a half lessons or two lessons inside.
[10:59]I want to be modest about traditions.
[11:04]Mubarak employed half a million people just to let him know when this comes.
[11:09]So how can we do it?
[11:13]Second is that when people tell us, especially in the light of the last two weeks,
[11:19]when people…
[11:20]Oh, don't worry.
[11:24]Don't be too paranoid.
[11:26]Something really terrible happens.
[11:29]The world will step forward.
[11:31]It's the 21st century.
[11:33]It's a community of nations.
[11:35]We're working.
[11:37]Don't worry.
[11:38]They are a bit too different.
[11:40]Look at what happened in Syria.
[11:41]What kind of atrocities?
[11:45]No one…
[11:46]And it doesn't mean…
[11:47]The fact that everyone sees it on the screen, you don't really need intelligence material,
[11:51]highly confidential.
[11:52]See it on the screens.
[11:54]And still there is no unity of purpose and political will and capacity to co-ordinate
[11:59]certain actions to stop it.
[12:02]And the third kind of insight is that our best friends used to tell us for many years.
[12:11]The root cause is your inability to solve…
[12:17]So is it more or less positive that you are no longer the center of the Middle East?
[12:25]Yeah, it's not true.
[12:26]It's not true.
[12:27]But, you know, this geopolitical earthquake would take place even if I would have signed
[12:33]peace with Arafat or Rabin.
[12:36]Because they say it's beyond us.
[12:43]So we became modest.
[12:45]When I was still in uniform, I used to call it, Israel is a villa in the jungle.
[12:49]Inside the villa you can have the best philharmonic orchestra.
[12:52]Best ballet, culture, standards, I don't know, quality of life.
[13:00]But when you walk out, you have to be aware that you are in a jungle.
[13:04]No mercy for the weak, no second opportunity for those who cannot protect themselves.
[13:10]And we, it's a Jewish prophecy from Isaiah and Micah, you know, the end of time or the
[13:17]land, the land can lie to them.
[13:20]As long as you practice, you have to replace the land every year.
[13:23]You prefer to be a benign liar.
[13:29]We don't have any hostile intentions, but you should be protected.
[13:34]So you should be open-eyed.
[13:36]That's the real message for us.
[13:38]And the events of the last two weeks, dramatically, those in Israel, including people in high
[13:44]office, President Shimon Peres, keep telling from his kind of high position of the elder
[13:53]statesman, don't worry.
[13:55]The Americans told explicitly what they were going to do.
[13:57]Don't worry.
[13:59]Next time you can really rely on them.
[14:09]When it comes to real questions, something really bad happens.
[14:13]So those people who prefer to say, okay, we should develop a relationship, we should
[14:20]be cooperating with the good guys, try to blow the bed, but basically we should be open-eyed
[14:27]enough to know that among those truths, we will be, we might end up being a law.
[14:32]Yeah.
[14:35]Yeah.
[14:38]What he's going to be doing now is sort of – the world seems to be in crisis in lots
[14:43]of different places.
[14:44]That's one of the – whether it be crisis in food, national security, energy security,
[14:53]cyber security.
[14:54]And what we're talking about –
[14:55]Food, even water, you know.
[14:56]Think of the Nile River.
[14:57]Crazy water.
[14:58]In what way?
[14:59]There are agreements, international agreements, signed or written by the Brits for more than
[15:10]100 years.
[15:13]Now it has to be – now there are some – probably a dozen of independent states along the Nile.
[15:27]Population has been – compared to when it's less water, and you have to use it.
[15:39]And, you know, people for a long time predicted that it can lead to –
[15:44]Terrible worse when it comes to water for – but the idea is to produce much more
[15:50]food for less water, and to reuse the water several times, even along the big river, so
[15:56]that you can gain another 100 years or so.
[15:59]Basic.
[16:01]Yeah.
[16:04]The guy who is the French agricultural minister was here yesterday.
[16:07]He said food security for France is just – food riots?
[16:11]What is he saying?
[16:12]Food security is – the world is going to – especially when the –
[16:17]the population of China and India became more kind of developed, with more money.
[16:22]If they – if the Chinese and the Indians would like –
[16:35]production deals and so on.
[16:37]So there is a need to produce enough food to – an area cultivated – cultivable area
[16:44]is covered more and more by urban kind of industrial assets.
[16:51]So you need to develop ways to produce much more.
[16:55]So, higher crops – there are three elements that we in Israel, in fact, very good in
[17:02]all of it.
[17:03]Higher crops, pest –
[17:06]Control.
[17:07]Pest immune or –
[17:08]Mm-hmm.
[17:09]Usually genetically some kind of complex kind of normal product, normal evolution,
[17:16]but accelerated evolution or genetic manipulation to make them more steady, more immune against
[17:25]pests.
[17:26]And now, you know –
[17:27]Number three is to make all these two or three times the crops with one third of the water.
[17:36]That raises the input-output rate by about a factor of 10, which gives you another 100 years.
[17:47]And it's needed because there's a lot of not the right lens being put.
[17:56]It needs R&D as always and technologies and kind of a virtual cycle of training power
[18:09]and a way to implement them into places where people are still primitive,
[18:14]they can hardly read English, and to teach them how to do it.
[18:19]Do you think the world is a more dangerous place or less dangerous?
[18:22]Do you think the world is a more dangerous place over the past 15 years?
[18:24]Or nothing's really changed, it's just the danger is different?
[18:27]After 15 years I believe it's basically a more stable place.
[18:31]More stable, right?
[18:32]Yeah.
[18:33]I think in China, hundreds of millions of Chinese are there.
[18:47]Remember, everywhere Bab Attaq went, still went, the American experience in China.
[18:59]He was the American attaché, the last attaché before you lost China.
[19:04]A military attaché.
[19:05]He tells his experience there.
[19:08]And I thought that there were huge famines from time to time.
[19:11]Tens of millions.
[19:13]Much better in terms of protection than 15 years ago.
[19:23]And major advances, even as a result of like Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
[19:29]There is a development in providing clean water.
[19:33]There are developments providing a weight of loss of life
[19:39]at the age of less than one year.
[19:41]Declines dramatically in Africa.
[19:43]Africa looks better than 15 years.
[19:45]It's still crazy compared to, I don't know, Connecticut.
[19:50]But it looks much better than Africa used to be.
[19:54]Yeah, because my sense is that it's getting better.
[19:59]And I think people just have more information now.
[20:02]The risks waiting down the stream are immense, especially for America.
[20:06]So it will be left to the most.
[20:09]America still...
[20:11]Some of the combination with success and the role it plays on the world
[20:20]tells people that this model is the winning one.
[20:23]It's totally different once you isolate yourself.
[20:27]And then any experience will be perceived as,
[20:32]OK, probably it works there.
[20:33]It cannot work anywhere.
[20:34]Well, it sounds like you think that that's one of the major dangers
[20:40]that we're now heading toward, is the U.S. isolation.
[20:44]Europe cannot lead.
[20:45]It's extremely transparent.
[20:47]It's probably better than the United States to live in,
[20:49]to enjoy life, whatever aspect of life.
[20:52]But it's short-sighted.
[20:54]It's like thinking of the next quarter, not the next several generations.
[20:59]The real leaders now, in terms of the combination of the United States,
[21:10]the U.K., Scandinavians, Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Australia,
[21:17]whenever I talk to Israel, I tell them,
[21:19]look, our real reference group is North America, Western Europe,
[21:23]the Scandinavians and Australia and New Zealand.
[21:26]That's it.
[21:27]The rest of the world is turbulent, we hope.
[21:30]But if this group of nations is not leading the world in any perceivable aspect,
[21:38]even in sports, you know, we used to joke,
[21:41]why the hell these Germans are so...
[21:43]or Russia is so interesting.
[21:46]Why?
[21:47]Because they were winning the Olympics, more medals.
[21:49]They were poisoning their athletes to death, basically,
[21:54]in order to get more medals.
[21:56]In the service, someone put his life at hands away in the battlefield
[22:00]and the other in the porteries.
[22:03]I remember one.
[22:05]A German swimming trainer came to visit Israel.
[22:12]Probably a Jewish kibbutzim.
[22:21]And he was fascinated.
[22:23]He was kind of mesmerized by the kibbutzim.
[22:26]He said, that's the ideal birthplace for world champions.
[22:30]I said, why?
[22:31]He said, look, every community of 100 families has its Olympic swimming pool,
[22:37]which is true in the kibbutzim,
[22:38]because we need it for irrigation.
[22:40]So we put it and we used it as a swimming pool before.
[22:44]And the kids are psychologically supported by the parents
[22:49]because they live together in the same community.
[22:50]And he sees some good swimmers in the kibbutzim.
[22:55]Only the shorts are missing.
[23:01]The production line of champions.
[23:03]So why were they so interested?
[23:06]Because they understand that most of mankind,
[23:11]half of them are under the average.
[23:16]It's a bell curve of quality.
[23:21]Most people are exposed for prey
[23:27]to mythologies.
[23:29]And the mythologies, we need the Olympics.
[23:31]It's great.
[23:32]You see, don't ask where.
[23:33]Think of Owen.
[23:35]You were too young to see it.
[23:37]But these guys who kind of shaken the confidence of Hitler
[23:43]about the superiority of the Aryan race.
[23:46]A black guy that could,
[23:48]I don't remember his name.
[23:51]Carl Lewis, I think.
[23:54]Carl Lewis, no?
[23:56]Yeah, Carl Lewis probably.
[23:58]He made everything.
[24:00]Long jumping,
[24:01]one hundred meters, two hundred meters,
[24:03]four different.
[24:06]It was extremely important to the rest of the world,
[24:09]to the free world,
[24:10]that we showed,
[24:11]we were sitting and reading about it.
[24:15]If America will not lead,
[24:17]this group of nations will not lead.
[24:19]If they will not lead,
[24:20]they will be dragged behind.
[24:22]And the other mythologies will take over.
[24:27]History is only the story of those who won.
[24:30]Because they write the history.
[24:34]It didn't help the Russians and the East Germans much in the end.
[24:40]It didn't help the Germans very much that they won the Olympics.
[24:42]Of course, of course.
[24:43]Because they were,
[24:44]basically because America stood firm, you know.
[24:47]Let me say,
[24:48]Hawkins is going to be here because it's already 12.30.
[24:50]So just five minutes.
[24:52]Michael wants to talk to you about this UAV for Terry.
[24:56]Ah, Terry.
[24:57]It's okay.
[24:58]And then 4.30.
[25:00]It can't be late though.
[25:02]4.30.
[25:03]I'm trying to get them here at close to 4.
[25:10]So if you want to come 4.
[25:12]I'll try to come 4.50.
[25:14]Okay.
[25:15]So right now you're working in an ex parte.
[25:21]I just published a film led by me.