[0:11]Hello, I'm Gavin Lee and welcome to this week's edition of the world this week. I'm joined as ever by a panel of distinguished correspondents who'll be assessing the latest states of play in global affairs. In a week that's marked
[0:20]four years of war in Ukraine. It was a silent subdued ceremony in Kev's independent square with flowers and candles to honor the fallen. Nine European leaders were there to show solidarity. But there's no end in sight.
[0:32]Tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians have died. At least 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers according to the government. Many more missing, presumed dead in the so-called kill zone. In the east, where Russia has annexed roughly 20% of the country, the front line that once
[0:44]resembled the trench warfare of bygone world wars, has been transformed by technology to an expanded area often miles wide, where drones now dominate the battlefield. Open source
[0:54]intelligence estimates Russia has lost as many as 325,000 soldiers. >> Dear people, the strength that has sustained us all these years is you, our
[1:06]people. Our resistance is you. Ukrainian men, Ukrainian women. Everyone does not give up. >> It's been the week where President Trump delivered the longest State of the Union
[1:17]address on record, coming in at 1 hour 47 minutes. He boasted a quote waring economy, record stock market highs, and lower inflation and gas prices compared to the Biden era. The border, he said,
[1:28]was stronger than ever, the most secure in American history, a speech peppered with at least 60 superlatives and plenty of showmanship that saw him bring out the Olympic gold medal winning USA ice hockey team. And with the familiar
[1:40]rhetoric of foreign policy scant on any new detail, this was a best off combination. And on his immigration policy, sitting Democrats became sitting
[1:49]ducks as he posed a doozy of a question. If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support. The
[1:58]first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens. You should be ashamed of yourself not
[2:16]standing up. You should be ashamed of yourself. >> It's a week where Bill and Hillary Clinton testified in a private hearing about what exactly they knew about the life and crimes of Jeffrey Epstein. The
[2:27]former US Secretary of State says he had no information. Doesn't recall ever meeting him, accusing the Republican le House oversight committee of partisan political theater and calling on them to request that Donald Trump testifies and
[2:38]asked why the private hearing couldn't be held in public. Her husband, former President Bill Clinton, appears prominently in a batch of recently released Epstein files with heavily redacted photos of him in a swimming
[2:49]pool alongside the convicted pedophile Epstein and Gain Maxwell. He also traveled several times on Epstein's private jet, although neither of the Clintons are accused of any wrongdoing.
[2:58]She spoke to reporters afterwards. Can I ask why was Colleen Maxwell invited to your daughter Chelsea Clinton's wedding in 2010? She'd already
[3:09]been mentioned in a civil lawsuit by Virginia Duprey. Before that, Jeffrey Epste already been convicted before that. She came as the plus one, the guest of
[3:20]someone who was invited. >> Thank you all. >> Meanwhile, there was a second high-profile arrest in the space of a week in the UK in connection with Epstein. The first captured in that
[3:32]unforgettable image by Reuters photographer Phil Noble of a wideeyed, seemingly terrified Andrew Mountbatten Windsor leaving the police station by car. The arrest of the former US ambassador Peter Mandlesson came next.
[3:43]Both accused of passing confidential market sensitive government information to the convicted child sex offender. They both deny the arrest of Mandlesson came over claims he may have been preparing to leave the country. The
[3:54]British parliamentary speaker Lindseay Hy confirmed that he was the one to tip off police. I'd like to confirm that upon receipt of
[4:03]information that I felt it was relevant, I passed this on to the Metropolitan Police in good faith as is my duty and responsibility.
[4:15]Okay, it's time to meet the panelists. With me in the studio, we have a great friend of the pros program, Bourju Daragari, independent journalist, three times pulit surprise finalist, author two of the Substack Badlands. It is
[4:26]great to have you with us, Bouru. >> Thank you. I want to mention something that in the triage of big news doesn't often get looked at. Is something going on this week? There's a clash between
[4:36]Anthropic, the AI company, and the US government. It's an ethical clash, it seems. What's going on at the heart of that? >> Oh, that's that's a very interesting story that's happening right now. You have this company, it's an AI startup
[4:47]backed by Amazon called Anthropic. Um and they basically have uh demanded that the Pentagon, which is one of their main clients, and that is something really interesting and noteworthy in the whole
[4:58]AI space. A lot of their clients are military. Um they they want a commitment from the military that the the the AI that they are using won't be used for two things. for uh domestic mass
[5:10]surveillance of Americans and for autonomous uh warfare and uh they said that until they get those commitments they can't provide their technology to
[5:20]uh to the Pentagon anymore and you know there was a big statement by the CEO of the company of Anthropic uh saying this and explaining its position and also detailing all the work they have been
[5:32]doing for the military and for the intelligence agencies he notes uh and And uh you had this uh statement coming out from a Pentagon spokesman uh saying
[5:43]essentially uh we have not asked them to do anything illegal. We basically want a commitment that we will do nothing that is illegal um regardless of and the the
[5:52]the underlying uh word there is unethical which is he doesn't mention and they have until uh 5:00 p.m. today Eastern time to buckle so in a few hours or they lose all their Pentagon
[6:03]contracts. But it's also interesting because you you compare that with what's been going on at the bigger company Palanteer >> named after the Tolken stepping stones of Lord of the Rings to which Alex Karp
[6:15]it's its boss has basically been saying it's an ideological >> enthusiastic yes he wants to he said before defend the west he is a contract with >> and kill people he said he he was quite
[6:27]public about saying that yeah so yes there's a different attitude there in other parts of the AI space >> well we've invited Alex Cop onto the program. We hope he joins us soon. The the invite is still there about the the
[6:38]company. There's a lot of scrutiny this week. Financial Times calling for more scrutiny on the company which have contracts not just British military, the US military, but also the British NHS, French air boss boss company as well. So
[6:50]we will look at that. But it's great to have you with us tonight. Uh let's move elsewhere. Let's go to Brussels. Let's bring in Yokim Clemente, Europe correspondent for the Estonian public
[7:00]broadcaster. E R R U E Ursy Rafus Aarang Hurling Yokim I think I got that almost right pronunciation it is fantastic to have you with us again tell us about your week and what you've been working
[7:11]on >> well I've just finished a small report on climate policy and European competitiveness it seems kind of a highly technical issue we're talking a
[7:23]lot about the emissions trading system which is basically a system where European industry pays for the carbon they admit when they produce use electricity for example or other things. But it's very interesting that such a
[7:35]technical issue has really become kind of a focal point back home in Estonia and in European politics more widely. I I think we see some ground shifting. The
[7:45]Italians have just come out yesterday saying that uh this whole system needs to be put on hold and cancelled for the time where we figure out the uh how to reform it to make sure that we're
[7:56]essentially not shooting ourselves in the foot when we are uh you know trying to make sure we don't hurt the climate but are allowing our companies to
[8:05]compete on the world stage. So, it's it's been a very kind of interesting issue lately uh when it comes to how do we make sure that Europe has the
[8:16]economic power to make sure that we have the military power to be a player on the world stage. >> Something else we might have missed this week, but you can take us into this world. It was Estonian National Day,
[8:28]wasn't it? The anniversary of the Declaration of Independence in 1918. I've got a question for you. As well as the military parades that is there, there's a standout dish I'm told
[8:37]Estonians must eat which is called kula kula voy. It's a a sprout sandwich. What is it? >> Let me help you. It's ginu which I think
[8:47]in English it's it's a sprout sandwich. So you it's rye bread which we eat in Estonia, not this uh bread you're used to in France
[8:57]where you or Belgium where you have um you know made from wheat but made from rye and on top of that you have sprout and it's a very traditional kind of
[9:06]Estonian dish we like to eat during our independence day and maybe you know not in moderation a little shot of vodka by the side and
[9:17]we celebrate our colors and celebrate the fact that you know 100 years ago 180 years ago um we beat the Soviet Union then Russia in our war of independence.
[9:29]So it is possible if you stand up for your freedom to actually get freedom uh as so I I think that's also a sign that we should hold out hope for the Ukrainians.
[9:40]>> Brilliant to have you with us tonight. Let's move up the the E19 and the A1. Let's go from Brussels to Antworp. Bring in Tun Votin, award-winning Dutch war photojournalist, writer, cultural
[9:50]anthropologist who's covered conflicts in Haiti, Iraq, Syria, Rwanda, the Balkans, child soldiers in Sierra Leone, Mexico's drug cartels, and for the past two years a fentinel crisis in the US.
[10:00]Welcome to the panel, Ton. Uh let's start with uh by way of intro introduction. You're working on a book called The Silent Killer on the West Coast and you've embedded yourself in doing this on the streets to document
[10:12]the human impacts of it all. Tell us about what you found. >> Well, um, in 2009, I arrived in Mexico
[10:22]to photograph the drug war. I found a level of violence and cruelty and impunity that I only had witnessed
[10:30]before in so-called univil wars in Cherylon, Angola, Liberia, Afghans and posts Soviet. But at the same time, Mexico is a very civilized cultured
[10:41]country. And it it was very strange for me to to see this level of insanity in a civilized country. I went back several time eventually I made a photo book, but
[10:51]I found it so interesting. I actually I made a PhD on Mexican drug violence. I focused on first of all what kind of war it is. It is a war and I call it hybrid
[11:02]warfare. You can compare it with the war that ISIS is waging against the west. It's very uh it's at all levels. It's un it's unpredictable.
[11:13]Uh I also analyze the conflict uh from a economic point of view. I analyze the cartels as ultra capitalist as predatory
[11:23]capitalist uh corporations. Very interesting. Uh who used the same tactics uh and approach as ordinary corporations
[11:33]uh only they use violence but in a very selective way. And at last I looked at the logic of cruelty, how people can commit the most uh atrocious acts,
[11:45]ultraviolence. And I refrained from calling the perpetrators uh animals, irrational animals. And I said, listen, this this ultraviolence is
[11:55]a rational strategy to impose order to to make propaganda to intimidate opponents and also as a recruitment strategy. So that's basically where I
[12:06]focus on. After that I focused on the drug violence in Antworp. I wrote a book about crystal mets also Mexico is a big producer of crystal met and currently
[12:17]I'm writing a book on fentinil at this moment uh the most horrible drug has taken the lives of nearly 400,000 people
[12:25]in the US and also Mexico is responsible for producing the fentinil with the help of China which is
[12:36]trafficking in precursor chemicals to to Mexico so it's it's a very complicated But I I talk to many addicts on the streets. I I do research on on policy of city governments. >> Yes.
[12:48]>> And I of course I I research on US policy and Trump, how Trump is trying to to to to to curtail the cartels. >> Well, tune. We will look into that in
[12:58]more detail. It's great to have you with us as well tonight. Let's head from Antworp to Washington DC. Let's welcome Ina Stratzina, the foreign affairs editor at Latvian Public Broadcaster
[13:08]LTV. It is great to see you, Ina. Great to have you back with us on the program, too. You've just finished broadcasting Latvian TV today. Uh you've come to talk to us tonight. So, thank you. Tell us about what you've been covering this
[13:20]week. >> I Gabin, very very nice, very happy to see you again. And of course, I remember our wonderful uh Brussels Times. Uh yes,
[13:31]this week very very busy here in Washington. Of course the main stories we are following as every journalist here what's going on with Epstein files
[13:41]we what's going on with Iran and for me uh personally this week also was full of official visits here from Latvia high
[13:50]level visits and in this time when we are still in uh Russia's war in Ukraine
[13:59]it's very much uh felt also here in in the states and our politicians tried to
[14:06]come here to convince and to tell um um American counterparts about the situation in the Baltics that we need security. We need we are NATO member
[14:18]state but still we uh want to assure be sure that United States is with us and also we need economical cooperation and
[14:27]uh cooperation in energy sphere. So there are a lot of lot of u things which our side is willing to u to uh develop
[14:38]with American side and of course uh >> no we will look at that when we get to Ukraine. It is great to have you with us. Quick question to you going back to what Yoim said on the Estonians eating I
[14:50]think it's kilu voy we'll get a pronunciation from yoim. Is there a Latvian equivalent arrival of this sprat sandwich? Actually
[15:00]we do eat sprats and this is something we are u we are taking as a present also when we go somewhere abroad. Uh maybe
[15:09]not so typical as our Estonian friends but yeah we do like splats. This is one
[15:15]of our um most popular u most popular food. Yeah. So yeah we we do eat. We do eat. Yes. >> Thumbs up to spreads. Great to have you
[15:26]with us in a Let's begin 8:30 Tuesday morning in Ukraine. That's when President Zalinski released an address to the nation on social media marking four years of war and resistance to Russia's initial plan to take the
[15:37]capital in three days. Zilinski start in the same chair, the same office, the same underground bunker on Vancouver Street in Kev, where he sat on the 24th of February, 2022, uttering reportedly a
[15:48]phrase that illustrates his wartime leadership in response to President Biden's offer to evacuate him. quote, "I need ammunition, not a ride." Ever aware of the importance of optics, the president offered a new perspective on
[15:59]what was going on back then. >> Much was done here. We had never shown this facility before.
[16:10]It's empty now, of course. But at the beginning of the war, there were hundreds of people here. I worked here. Then we went upstairs to
[16:21]address you, the people. Here was our team, the government, daily coordination, phone calls, the search for solutions,
[16:33]everything necessary for Ukraine to endure. >> At 8:30 on that morning in 2022, convoys of Russian tanks, troops, and equipment were advancing towards Kev. But the fight back was already underway.
[16:45]Ukrainian forces blowing up key bridges to stop the encirclement, slowing and repelling the invasion and stopping the airborne special forces from landing the start of their tactical defense around
[16:54]Kev. There were some of the headlines. Let's show you some actually on the week that the full-scale war broke out. Putin invades, says the Guardian. Uh we also
[17:04]saw from the Daily Mail, Putin to seize the capital in days, it said. Well, much of the West has rallied since Ukraine's cause. Although there's a wider debate on the speed, the scale of that support,
[17:15]the question of whether acting earlier and faster would have stopped the Russians entrenching in the east. In terms of spending, Europe now accounts for the largest share of total military and humanitarian aid. The US reluctance
[17:26]under President Trump saw Washington also briefly paused intelligence sharing last year to pressurize Keefe towards their idea of peace negotiations. And that pressure hasn't gone away. US special envoy Steve Wickoff saying this
[17:37]week it is a silly war and President Trump has said he wants a deal by summer ahead of the US midterms. Yoke, let me first come to you. President Zilinski here in Paris uh while the Olympics were
[17:48]on last year. You interviewed him. Can you tell us what you took away from that and also from looking at him then to now this week? This the wartime leader of
[17:58]Ukraine. Well, I think what's most amazing about Zilinski is just the fact that you can see when you're talking to him or when you see his performances on TV, even
[18:09]after these four years, you see that there is still fight in him. And without such a leader, I think, you know, at the start of the war, there were many predictions. The Russians thought that, you know, it would be over in three
[18:21]days. I got to say the European allies sometimes also thought that the Ukrainians didn't have as much fight in them. But uh you know uh when I talk to Silinski the primary impression I got
[18:32]from him is even though if you look at his press conferences sometimes you wonder how does he keep it up? How is he not tired? Every time he's kind of vocalizing the fact that hey I am young.
[18:44]I'm Veral. I have the nation of Ukraine behind me. We are fighting. We are not asking you to fight for us. We're just asking you to help us uh fight. And you
[18:56]know, if you compare that to Putin who's sitting in his bunkers and kind of isolating, the Ukrainians and Silinski have always been saying that if you're going to bet
[19:05]on somebody, you know, you bet on the guy who shows some life, shows some fire. And you know this classic quote, I don't need a ride, I need ammunition. I think we are in the same space right
[19:17]now. Sure, the Americans are not giving aid anymore. It's funded by the Europeans. But the real question is the Ukrainians are proving still after four
[19:28]years of fullscale war that there's still fight in them and they are asking for our help just to give them bullets. really
[19:38]>> resistance a key word despite what Ukrainians are going through and despite the fact that is has not been easy and there's been a coming and going of political faces a political landscape in
[19:49]Europe in the US too and you've seen this in a uh you've reported from Ukraine back and forth over the past four years on the technological transformation as well I want to ask you about that this sort of trenches giving
[20:00]way to foxholes uh no man's land now a wider kill zone the drone warfare we're seeing what's your sense of of how the front lines have have changed. >> I think uh the amazing thing is that
[20:14]Ukraine uh is uh so strong that in these four years actually actually Russia couldn't advance much. It has taken some
[20:24]territories in the eastern part but really the these are not significant that they wouldn't change Ukraine's faith but of course situation is very
[20:35]very difficult and soldiers are very tired and people are super tired also in in the cities being shelled absolutely
[20:44]every single day and uh uh this situation is um really shame I think for us uh the western war that in these four
[20:54]four years we haven't been able to to stop Putin to stop uh this terrible war and uh uh to get uh um these peace
[21:06]negotiations where they should be. So yeah, I think Ukraine is uh struggling. The analysis are that this year will be ste still war
[21:17]year and there is no any signal that uh there would be some u result some good
[21:26]uh outcome for Ukraine uh till the summer and u not uh maybe also till the end of the year. So yeah situation is
[21:36]very very very bad. B listening to in a Euro to press the editorial in the independent on the day before I think the invasion on the possible humanitarian consequences. You were at the border with with Hungary and you
[21:47]stayed there for the week. You also talked about President Putin how he would use refugees to destabilize other nations. How do you reflect on on that now? I I think they they definitely tried I mean they they definitely tried
[21:58]to uh destabilize Europe in many different ways including um uh grayzone type uh cybernetic warfare uh information operations. Um they did and
[22:10]I think to Europe's credit um they they still welcome uh Ukrainian refugees. There is no hostility. They didn't turn against them. Uh but you know that was indeed uh one of the things that Russia
[22:22]had in its arsenal of destabilization is creating wars and other countries do this too right now in Eurasia. There's other powers create wars in order to
[22:31]destabilize your enemies uh by uh destabilizing the refugee flows. >> I'll also pick up on something you wrote two days after which is you talked about
[22:40]Western hunger for Russian gas. Putin's central bank accumulating a record $630 billion in foreign reserves at the time turning a blind eye. you said to human rights violations and crackdowns.
[22:51]Imports of Russian gas and oil imports in Europe are not zero, but they've reduced a lot. >> They've reduced a lot and it's to their credit uh there is still some uh
[23:00]holdouts in terms of punishing uh Russia economically with Hungary refusing to abide by these proposed sanctions uh fresh round of sanctions. But look, I
[23:10]think more broadly this is I I I wonder uh if if the world is getting somewhat tired of this at this point. Uh it's been four years. It is a you know
[23:20]grueling war of attrition I think. Um I and I I spoke to I interviewed a a scholar a Ukrainian scholar this week and I asked him what would be the you know the ugliest terms that you would
[23:30]accept and that the Ukrainians would accept. And what one of the things that he said was kind of interesting is that you know we could probably accept a you
[23:39]know get getting lo the eastern Ukraine Donbas and uh Crimea and and so on. But what are the security guarantees after
[23:49]that? As long as, and as he put it, as long as Putin is around, he's going to continue to pose a threat. So, it's a real dilemma. It is a, you know, horrible war. And it what would be a
[24:00]real tragedy if it were to continue for another four years. >> We're in a situation where we've got all four of your correspondents who've covered Ukraine either from the borders inside Ukraine, including you, too. And
[24:12]you worked as a a photojournalist in Ukraine since the war began. I think I'm right in saying including during the battle of Mikaveiv in 2022. Tell us about the fighting then that you saw. What stayed with you on reporting
[24:23]in Ukraine? >> Well, it it's a very difficult war to cover. Uh when I was there in in uh I think three years ago, uh you had hardly
[24:35]any access to the front lines. um uh the the Ukrainian government was still very suspicious of of journalists. Um but
[24:47]it's it's it's and you didn't have really access to to really the front front lines. I was taken on a press trip and these were like the the third or the fourth front lines basically what I
[24:57]understand from colleagues things are changing now and you have a little bit more more access to what's really happening but it's still it's a very nasty war. It's a very dangerous war
[25:07]especially uh the drones are very scary and for a photojournalist uh I'm in my photo work I try to capture
[25:18]people uh expressions and then drone warfare is something very automatic something very robotike so for a current day war photographer uh these drone wars
[25:29]are very very challenging >> y listening to to tune one thing that strikes me as the what happens next question. I wanted to bring something into you which you will be able to tell us more about which
[25:41]is this. The Estonian foreign intelligence services brought out its annual security assessment this month. It's been much anticipated because it's considered by many in NATO as the intelligence with the best view of
[25:52]Russia. Their intel says they quote do not see any intention on the part of the Kremlin to attack any NATO country this year. and they don't see that changing in the immediiacy because NATO, it says,
[26:02]has taken steps to deter Moscow for the time being. Tell us about that Estonian foreign intelligence and and why it is so championed within Europe for what it does.
[26:14]>> I mean, as much as I speak to colleagues here in Brussels, you know, intelligence people as well, military people, uh they really value the reports Estonia gives
[26:24]because uh I mean we are right there on the border. There's a long history of, you know, we didn't really have this naive view of Russia that they weren't the threat that maybe some of the
[26:34]intelligence agencies in Europe more to the west might have had. So there's a long history of uh looking at Russia, analyzing Russia and not fear-mongering. You know, you hear from this report that
[26:46]we're not saying that, you know, tomorrow there's going to be attack an attack and, you know, we need to kind of I don't know that the world ends unless we uh completely turn our countries upside down to defense against this. No,
[26:57]it's a rational analysis based on facts. Uh, which is why I think it's respected in Europe. And it's the assessment mostly uh as much as we've spoken to
[27:07]intelligence people back home in Estonia is based just on the fact that if you look at the the units that Russia has although they are building a bigger presence on the border with Estonia on
[27:19]the border with Finland that they have huge plans to extend their forces there to focus a lot more on drones which is you know very scary for us and for all
[27:29]of Europe really. We need to be prepared for a Russian army that's supercharged on this experience of drone warfare from Ukraine. The experience that we in Europe don't really have. We need to be
[27:40]prepared for this and we need to do more to be prepared for this. But we are seeing that as long as they are engaged in Ukraine, there just aren't the units
[27:51]in uh on the borders with Estonia, with the other Baltic states, with Finland to actively threaten NATO countries with an invasion. That doesn't mean that the
[28:02]Russians aren't trying to, for example, stage various hybrid attacks, attacks of infrastructure, sometimes hidden, you know, spying activities, all other
[28:13]things to kind of destabilize Europe. But then when it comes to, you know, fullcale military war with Russia, I like it's not in the cards in the near
[28:22]future just because they are so occupied with Ukraine. Ukraine is really kind of defending our freedom at this moment. It is a good thought, Yokim. I see the Kremlin mark the anniversary with
[28:33]President Putin spokesperson Dmitri Pescov saying this quote the main goal is to ensure the safety of people who live and have lived in Donetskin Luhansk the people's republic as well as Zaparisia and the hearan oblast who were
[28:44]in truly mortal danger from Ukraine. Those goals of the special military operation have not been achieved. Make of that what you will to Heliscoco State, Mexico. In the early hours of Sunday morning where special forces
[28:56]raided a rental home in the woods in the remote town of Tal Papa up in the mountains. It's 2 hours drive south from the biggest city, Guadalajara. Six military helicopters full of the elite parachute infantry brigade descended,
[29:07]tipped off that the leader of one of the most powerful criminal organizations in Mexico, one of the world's most wanted drugs traffickers was inside. Nessio Esera Svantes aka Elmeno. The source of
[29:19]that intel is that have been known because his hideout. Uh, a source knew one of Eleno's girlfriends. They followed her and that took them to him. And after a decade in hiding, it came
[29:29]down to a firefight. Attempt by Elmeno to escape out the back with his bodyguard. He was found hiding in the undergrowth of the compound where a second firefight was reported. Aleno and
[29:38]both bodyguards injured. Elmeno fatally was placed on a helicopter, transported to hospital, but confirmed dead on route. is President Shinbau.
[29:49]>> All operations are carried out by federal forces. There is no US participation in the operation. >> What there is is, as we have said here several times, is a great deal of
[29:59]information sharing. Once the death was confirmed, footage emerged of the cartel's response. Smoking, burnt out buses, cars, banks, supermarkets, not just in Halisco, but from coast to coast
[30:09]in at least 20 states. shootings too. At least 25 members of the National Guard killed in retaliation by the Helisco cartel. Ton, let's begin with you. You've covered, as you said, the cartels in Mexico, including the Halisco New
[30:21]Generation Cartel. Tell us about Elmeno, who he was, this avocado grower turned drug dealer turned police officer turned cartel boss. Complicated story, and an
[30:32]elusive man. Well, Aleno, first of all, he was a pathological apathetic killer, but he
[30:41]was able to organize one of the biggest and most powerful cartels of Mexico. One of the most brutal, one of the most ruthless cartels, a cartel that really
[30:52]confronts the authorities in in the ideal world. The cartels and crime are working under the radar, but they really sought the confrontation with
[31:02]authorities. They they they shot down a army helicopter with RPG. They ambushed the head of police uh in in Mexico City
[31:11]with with with 50 uh cal with heavy machine guns. Um they had training
[31:20]camps. Uh they for recruits to kill prisoners which were people from other cartels. They they they did the most gruesome atrocities.
[31:31]uh basically and it's not a rational uh irrational uh cruelty but it's it's a way of intimidating
[31:41]the enemy and also a way of making a brand and the Kis cartel they were very smart business people as well they had some kind of a franchise operations they
[31:51]went to um the state next door and they they discussed with the local crime boss listen do you want to join the kaliscoon
[31:59]you can our uniforms, our logo, uh our brand name, um and we want just 10% of your profits and uh if they attack you,
[32:11]we will defend you and if we are attacked, we expect you to defend us. And in a couple years, the Cartel Kaliscoco was able to to establish a presence in 20 states of the 32 states
[32:22]of of Mexico. And they were involved in as true narco capitalist in kidnapping in extortion of avocado farmers uh but
[32:33]also uh production of of crystal meds but most important the production of fentinil and and that's basically why
[32:42]why Trump declared cartel kaliscoco together with cartel as public enemy number one from the US and this was a very complicated operation And of course
[32:54]there was a very sensitive relation between the US and Mexico. >> Yes. >> Of course in the 19th century there was the US Mexican war and and and but this was done with intelligence from the
[33:04]Americans. The the Mexicans could not have pulled this off on their own. >> So operational by Mexico but a lot of intelligence support from from the US. A brief point. I know you've extensively
[33:16]looked at the you talked right at the start of the the key violent cities associated with the cartels that you actually went out in the streets. You spoke to a lot of the crime gangs, Sedat Huarez, Kuliaan, Tijana. You've
[33:26]explained the spread of this Hiliscoco as a group, not just to Helisco, but as you say, up to 20 states, hence what we saw with the cars burning in the in the banks building burning too. What do you
[33:38]expect will fill that void? I mean, how how big after the death of Almeno is this as a victory for the state? >> Well, there are basically two
[33:46]possibilities. uh Almano uh maybe he had realized he has not eternal life and he has basically appoints already successor then you have
[33:58]basically a peaceful transition. The other thing is you can have a power struggle and then the cartella can disintegrate in different factions and then it will be very nasty and very
[34:08]bloody and because you have you will have new factions and both all of these factions have to present themselves to the outside world uh with with atrocious
[34:20]violence basically as a signal from we are the new kids on the block and but it can also internal struggle can also mean that the cartel will really weaken and that's what's currently happening. in
[34:30]the Caloa cartel. This used to be the most powerful cartel after the cartel. But El Chapo was arrested and El
[34:40]Mayo was betrayed by sons of El Chapo. And right now thousands of people in Kulyakan are killed and and and lower cartel is is completely
[34:51]uh fractionized in different factions. So so it's completely weakened. So we don't know what is happening. And uh I heard about successors but nobody knows for sure. I heard today that some
[35:03]lieutenants were killed. So we just have to to wait and see a couple of weeks till till till till the ecosystem will become more clear. >> And and to that point in a few more
[35:13]weeks we'll see the World Cup happening this summer in Mexico as well. In a just listening to that I'm reminded of the fact President Trump has said this. This is after the operation. He said this. if
[35:22]Mexico doesn't get a grip on the drug cartels smuggling fentinel across the border that he he remains the right to to carry out military action. So there
[35:33]is a sense really that that pressure hasn't gone away in >> uh that's right in carry on.
[35:48]Yeah. Uh yes about the pressure. >> We're listening to you both. Ton we'll come straight back to you in a you continue then we got your thought on
[35:57]that to respond to. >> Yeah sorry I just uh wanted to say that yeah the pressure is going on but at the
[36:06]moment I think also uh President Trump and this is this this topic I will follow I understand is very much busy
[36:14]with Iran. Iran. So it might also be uh the Mexico might be also uh later his point of interest. Sorry for interrupting.
[36:24]>> No, no, it was your question. Ton, what were you going to say? >> The fentinil epidemic which has cost the lives of maybe 300 or 400,000 people has
[36:36]been declared national emergency. Uh Trump has declared the cartels terrorist organizations. He has declared fentil a
[36:45]weapon of mass destruction. So basically this is all creating a context in which he can attack the cartels but uh cartels are like very much embedded in Mexican
[36:56]society. They don't have a big sky scraper a big headquarters where all the cartels are located and you drop one bomb and the problem is finished. It's a very complicated problem because you
[37:08]have levels at corruption at all levels at municipal level at state level and uh in the past there are instances that the
[37:15]national drug was actually uh being paid by cartels. So it's a very complicated problems problem. So uh it won't be easy
[37:25]to we out but at least Kia Shinbau extradited about 100 naros that were already
[37:34]imprisoned in Mexican jails and cinala cartel has declared it's illegal to produce fentinil because uh they want to
[37:44]whitewash themselves. So basically uh seizures of fentinil have dropped 50% on the Mexican border. They went up by the way on the Canadian border. So, uh, the
[37:55]hardline approach of Trump is having at least some results. >> Very interesting. Bor, let me ask you a question. What you making of the the timing of the operation, the US pressure we've been talking about, also the intel
[38:06]to this this downfall via one of his lovers apparently. >> Well, I think that the timing was opportunistic uh based on what I understood and what I read and heard.
[38:15]Um, the US uh intelligence sharing is has been ongoing for decades. Um, what I found really fascinating was the response of this cartel. Um, this guy,
[38:27]he's he's been described as, as Ton pointed out, this guy has been likened by Mexican authorities to ISIS in the level of violence that he has been perpetrating and also in the cult-like status that he has within this
[38:38]organization. Why would you do that? Why would you have this massive uprising across 20 provinces? I think they were uh angry states rather. They were angry
[38:48]because they were basically, as Ton pointed out, they've been paying off these cops. And it's like, you know, but hey, we've been paying you off. How can you come after our cult leader? Um, but,
[39:00]you know, I guess the proper response is you were paying off the cops. You weren't paying off the army. Uh, but but I think that is a really interesting and fascinating uh development in Mexico. >> Well, let's take us from Mexico. Thank
[39:11]you, Boru, to an area that you know very well. Let's go to talk about the situation in Iran. To Switzerland, Thursday morning, 10:00 stop for indirect talks between the US and Iran broken at the residents of the Aman
[39:22]ambassadors to the UN along the shores of Lake Geneva. Widely framed as a last chance for diplomacy with a huge US military buildup in the Middle East and President Trump's threats of force if no deal is reached on Iran agreeing to
[39:33]diminish its nuclear program. President Trump has not been exactly clear with what he's seeking. He told protesters a month ago that help was coming, urging them to keep demonstrating before they were crushed and thousands killed in the
[39:44]regime's suppression descent. He's talked about wanting Tehran to quit funding its militant proxies and missile capabilities. This is what Israel wants too with Tel Aviv calling for the US to
[39:54]demand the total package is agreed to. After midnight hammer, they were warned to make no future
[40:04]attempts to rebuild their weapons program. in a particular nuclear weapons. Yet they continue. They're starting it all over. We wiped it out
[40:13]and they want to start all over again. And at this moment, again, pursuing their sinister ambitions. We are in negotiations with them. They want to make a deal, but we haven't heard those
[40:25]secret words. We will never have a nuclear weapon. >> The economist ran this headline this week. Americans, it said, has no idea what President Trump wants from Iran.
[40:37]The president himself may be among them and that he might have backed himself into a corner with the military buildup. Boru, let's start with you. You were born in Imperial Iran before the the
[40:48]revolution. Tonight, as we we're on air, I think Germany, France, the UK telling its citizens not to go to Israel. Amongst the possible risk of reprisals,
[40:59]China, Italy telling its citizens not to go to or to leave Iran. >> Yeah, I I think that it is drifting towards that. I think that it it will happen. I think there will there's now
[41:09]probably way more chance that there will be some kind of military action by the US against Iran. Um and then then the question becomes what does Iran do and then what is the escalation after that?
[41:19]Look, this is a very terrible situation. I think um I think that uh you know I'd liken Trump to a guy who you know heard that if you you know you go way out into
[41:29]the provinces there's a furniture store that has furniture on sale and then he gets out there and he finds out that actually the furniture isn't as cheap as he thought. So he has a choice you know
[41:40]sort of a sunk cost fallacy here. he has a choice between driving all the way back with no furniture or doing, you know, getting something getting something at that at that shop that is not as as cheap as he thought it would
[41:52]be. And so I think that is the situation we're in and that's why the confusion is there. It's like a you know, as I I wrote in in one of my uh uh uh newsletters or something this week, I
[42:02]forget what, but um it's a war in search of a strategy at this point. Um, and I think that is a real uh mistake for the US and it's also going to be potentially
[42:13]really tragic for the region. Um, we're talking u Iran as well as Israel that could be hammered by, you know, advanced weapons. We're talking, you know, potentially in in the war last year,
[42:24]there was a thousand civilian casualties in Tehran of four four dozen or so in Israel. So, we'll see what happens in the coming hours. It is worth saying you've been speaking to people uh
[42:35]particularly perhaps few people who really know the Iranian level of ability to respond and and how it's built up its nuclear enrichment since since June last year.
[42:47]Tell me about what you you found out. >> I don't know about anything about enrichment. I've heard that the enrichment has not started up and that it the the sites have been you know blown up. They were successfully blown up. So in terms of the nuclear stuff,
[42:59]not a lot. But in terms of conventional capabilities, yes, um Iran has been preparing for this round. It knew that that was not over. It has not been sitting on its uh laurels over the last
[43:10]eight months or so. In addition, uh China has been coming to the aid. And then there were a few really good reports that I've been reading about how Russia has been secretly and quietly
[43:20]helping uh Iran out with its anti-missile and intelligence capabilities. One thing I want to ask you. I I listened to the Economist Middle East
[43:31]reporter Nick Farmer who was talking about a quiet civil war going on within Iran. It's saying there's the two sides between the royalists and the regime that it's very tense but it's it's
[43:42]bubbling under the surface. It's very hard to know because of so few voices coming from Iran. Do you have contest? Do you have those? >> I mean there there are people among the protesters who support the monarchists.
[43:52]Um I don't think they really know what they are saying. It's just it's the one slogan that really angers the regime is when you shout in favor of Pathi. Um the the guy is not a realistic leader for
[44:04]the future of the country. Resa Pathi, the the son of the former shock or king. So I'm not sure what that is about. I I don't know. There's no um there's no
[44:14]quiet civil war in the country. There could be if there is a regime collapse. >> Listening to that Yim, I'm interested to know your thoughts on Brussels. I spoke to the former Swedish foreign minister
[44:25]An Linda recently. She said she wasn't against the idea of a US military invention uh intervention. What are you picking up in Brussels whether President Trump should stick to diplomacy? I see
[44:35]that's one area Ka Kalas, former prime minister and foreign affairs chief in the EU, she said, "We don't want another war in the region." Quote, "We already have a lot."
[44:46]>> Yeah. No, I mean I think the European idea about this is always kind of uh you know it's a bit mixed. You have some people who are kind of admitting that I
[44:56]mean there nobody in Europe is a fan of the regime in Iran. Nobody's really a fan of the fact that they've been developing nuclear weapons. I mean when Trump had this midnight hammer hammer
[45:07]operation where they struck the nuclear facilities a lot of or some Europeans were saying that basically the US was doing you know the dirty work for Europe. So there are some voices in
[45:17]Europe who I think are you know not opposed like you mentioned to some sort of intervention but from the perspective of Gaia Galas what Galas has been always
[45:27]been adamant is that she believes that there needs to be you know a very rules based world order so nobody's above the law that you don't have unilateral actions from the US you know doing
[45:38]whatever they want visa v Iran that you know if if they do decide for some sort of military um operation that you would
[45:49]risk, you know, a wider escalation that would mean we are also drawing attention away from uh Ukraine, for example, or other issues that we we should be dealing with in Europe.
[46:00]>> It is a weekend with a lot of pressure and a lot of tense governments and citizens in the Middle East. That's it for this week. Thanks to another great panel talking us through another complicated set of global affairs with
[46:10]unique insight and clarity. in the studio with me. Thank you to Bosu Daragahi, three times Pulis surprise nominated independent journalist in Anwun Vhutan, award-winning Dutch war photojournalist, writer and cultural
[46:22]anthropologist from Washington DC. We've been joined by Ina Stradzina, foreign affairs editor, Latvian public broadcaster LTV. Thank you, Ina. And to Brussels, we just heard from Yokim Clemente, Europe correspondent from the
[46:33]Estonian public broadcaster ER R. Thank you, Yokim. And thank you for watching. We'll have Kula Shaker send us out tonight as he played at the cafe de la dance in Paris this week in a week that commemorated the anniversary of the
[46:44]death of John Keats who died in Rome 205 years ago aged only 25 in his words beauty is truth truth is beauty that is all ye know on earth and all ye need to
[46:55]know but in case there's anything else ye might need to know best see you in seven days for the world next Heat. Heat.