[0:03]Hi everybody. I'm Britney Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is Democratic strategist Lucy Caldwell. Lucy, thanks so much for joining me.
[0:12]>> Hey Britney, thanks for having me. >> Of course. I want to look ahead today and talk about 2026 and 2028 and what we can expect. But I think in order to do that, we should first talk about what
[0:24]we've seen in the past year. So I want to talk about Democrats specifically first. After the 2024 election, it really was a question of where does the party go from here? And it seems like
[0:34]they were lost in the political wilderness a bit. Earlier this month though, Democrats across the nation notched some wins on election night. Of course, the bigger wins were in blue and
[0:45]blueleaning states, but two types of Democrats won. More progressive ones as well as more moderate ones. And I'm curious, you see this, then it all comes
[0:56]to a head Friday. There was a meeting in the white house between mayor elect Zoran Mdani and President Trump and President Trump was really complimentary of the Democratic socialist Zoran
[1:06]Mamdani. He said this is someone I could really work with. A lot of his ideas are my ideas. So to start off the conversation, what do you make of really the past year when it comes to the
[1:16]Democratic party? >> Well, I think tracking back from Friday and then looking to the most recent election wins for Democrats. I will tell you something. You probably don't expect
[1:27]me to say, but this is how you normalize authoritarianism and Democrats are still asleep at the wheel. I think that it is good to have these wins. Those are encouraging. You know, I work to try to
[1:38]elect Democrats, but I'm a former Republican. I was a Republican strategist who left the party because I saw that today's MAGA Republican party, in my view, is a force for
[1:48]authoritarianism. And I think that unfortunately many Democrats who I think are by the way I think the Democratic party is the only vehicle to defeat authoritarianism and I think there is
[1:59]authoritarianism just at the core of today's Republican party. They are still operating in a paradigm like a 2012 paradigm. And so we see a win like the
[2:09]wins in Virginia where look it would have been really unprecedented for Spanberger not to win the governorship in Virginia, right? You know, we usually see people switch. You know, New Jersey,
[2:19]that was pretty expected. They were big wins. It is good to see double-digit wins in a race like that, but Citerelli was an incredibly weak candidate. And then in New York City, yeah, of course,
[2:30]you would expect the person who came out of the Democratic primary to win the general election in the mayoral race, especially when facing such a incredibly
[2:40]flawed candidate as Andrew Cuomo. So I think then when we go back to a few days ago and you see Zoran Manni who has so much momentum behind him in the White
[2:49]House making nice with Donald Trump and kind of doing the dog and pony show visit to the Oval Office. To me, that reflects a Democratic party that across
[2:59]the board from the progressive left, by the way, former Republican here, I have centrist politics, right, to people who are the more third way wing of the
[3:09]Democratic party, just not reading the tea leaves about how big a threat the country still faces and really still needing to do a lot to get into gear.
[3:19]And I know that's not a raw raw thing to say, but that's how I see it. And then let's flip then to Republicans because Republicans seemed united in
[3:29]2024. Now the headlines are flipped. It's Republicans in disarray when it came to the flip-flop on Epstein and releasing those files. Most recently a
[3:39]few days ago, Marjorie Taylor Green, the congresswoman from Georgia who was perhaps President Trump's one of his at least staunchest allies. She announced her resignation. I mean, what do you
[3:50]think of that? And what do you think this means then for politics at large? >> Well, I think that Marjorie Taylor Green um probably has another act in her. I think a lot of people noted that it's
[4:02]interesting that she is uh resigning her seat in Congress the day before the January 6th uh anniversary. Will that be because she is going to make another
[4:12]announcement, for example, that she is going to run for Senate or take on some other large stage? So, I don't think that Marjorie Taylor Green uh is going away. I think she is still going to be a
[4:24]strong force in the Republican party. I think it's really dangerous when Democrats, even jokingly, say things like, "Oh, maybe Marjgerie Taylor Green can come over to our side." No,
[4:35]absolutely not. She is a person uh who has been a apologist for January 6 insurrectionist. So I think if you want to know the the story beneath the surface on the Republican party with
[4:47]that sort of infighting right now, look to the conflict between Donald Trump and folks like Elon Musk, right? That's why we see the rise of people like Thomas Massie and others who are using their
[4:57]voices to uh push back against Donald Trump. But remember, they are not pushing back against Donald Trump from the center. These are not friends of Mitch McConnell. These are people who
[5:09]want to see him hold the line, be more MAGA. They want to see more u right-wing [laughter] sort of bonafites from Donald Trump. The Epstein issue is really interesting because that is an issue
[5:20]that universally Donald Trump does find himself in trouble with from Roana to Thomas Massie and Marjgery Taylor Green. Um but I'm not sure that Republicans are so much in disarray simply from the
[5:31]resignation of one congresswoman. And when you're looking at Epstein, Marjorie Taylor Green, she said this is ripping MAGA apart. Do you agree? And what do you think the impact on the
[5:43]Epstein files and what those emails and everything we've seen so far as it relates to Jeffrey Epstein? What do you think the political impact is? >> It's really hard to say because of the
[5:54]way that that bill went through and what the implementation of it will be. Of course, there's a 30-day window once the bill is signed for the Department of Justice to release uh the files, any files that are not classified. But there
[6:06]is a very big loophole that Donald Trump and his cronies can create for themselves in how those records are released, which is of course that any records tied to an ongoing
[6:17]investigation, the Department of Justice will be able to uh make the case, right, that they are not going to release those records, right? And so last week, Donald Trump, we're not talking enough about
[6:27]the fact that Donald Trump just last week directed the Department of Justice to go start investigations into his political rivals, Democratic donors, people who are, you know, influential
[6:38]Democrats. So, we know that the Justice Department is going to stand up. You opening an investigation doesn't mean anything, right? Investigation after investigation after investigation, and they'll be able to drive a truck through
[6:50]kind of any excuse for refusing to release those those files. So this is, as I said, an issue that does not have backlash. This is an issue that people across this political spectrum are
[7:01]united on. And so I actually don't think that this issue is going away in terms of anger from the American people. But I also don't think that we're suddenly going to see the light of day in terms
[7:10]of transparency around Epstein. >> And to that point, I mean, it there have been calls for release the files, release the documents when it comes to
[7:20]Epstein really for for years from both parties. Republicans were really loud and some Republicans ran on that in 2024. So, you don't think that this is going away anytime soon? I mean, what do
[7:31]you think the next iteration of this is? Do you think it would just be easier and almost we the country could move on if everything was released all at once and
[7:40]then that was it? >> It's very hard to say because at this point, I mean, you mentioned Republicans running on this issue in 2024. Donald Trump ran on this issue in 2024. He ran
[7:52]on the issue of transparency around the Epstein files even though Epstein was one of his best friends. So I think that the way that the Trump administration and Pam Bondi's Justice Department have
[8:02]behaved in the aftermath really makes the situation very tricky such that I'm not sure there's any scenario where we could ever quell the conspiracy theories around Epstein or ever create for the
[8:13]American people a true sense that they've gotten the answers they deserve. And Democrats when it comes to this in the political landscape now have been really united in calling for more
[8:25]transparency. And when you look at other issues, the top issue in 2024 and now is affordability. And Republicans in 2024, they owned that issue. More voters thought Republicans could make things
[8:36]more affordable for people. Now in 2025, Democrats seem to own that issue. when you're looking ahead, how do you think or who do you think is the party that right now is better equipped to continue
[8:48]owning this issue? >> Well, I think the Democrats are certainly in a better position now to make the case that the buck stops with Republicans who control every branch of government, right, when it comes to why
[9:00]are things not more affordable. And I think that Donald Trump, a person who is a multibillionaire, right? Um rolling out the the sort of lines about I don't want to hear any more about affordability because you can just go
[9:12]get your Walmart Thanksgiving dinner. Those are sound bites that reflect just being so out of touch with the experience of the American people who are experiencing high costs, continued inflation, really challenging
[9:23]affordability issues around the fight around the government shutdown in recent weeks. One of the things that was most interesting was the juxtaposition of
[9:34]issues on the Democratic side around things like uh uh renewing insurance subsidies right for the ACA premiums and others juxtaposed with the things that
[9:45]Donald Trump's administration is choosing to spend money on the ballroom the new plane for Christine you know the the bailout for Argentina so it's not necessarily even about the dollars and
[9:57]cents of well we're spending over here instead of over here. It's the let them eat cake feeling that that gives the American people about how this
[10:07]Republican party is operating while they continue to really face challenges that they thought would be relieved by now. >> And to that shutdown point, it was really interesting that after the
[10:18]election, it seemed like voters were telling Democrats, signaling to them, we're with you on this shutdown fight. and Democrats said, "Hey, we are really entrenched in our position because we
[10:30]need to lower the cost of health care for all Americans." Then right after that, and it seemed like Democrats had more leverage at the moment. Then we see a small group of Democrats in the Senate vote with Republicans for that
[10:41]continuing resolution that ultimately opened the government and they did not receive any concrete um concessions when it came to healthcare. I mean, what do you make of that? Do you think? And I know a shutdown, a lot of people in the
[10:53]federal government, they weren't who work there, they weren't receiving paychecks. Shutdown's a horrible thing. But do you think that Democrats really dropped the ball when it came to that fight? I mean, what do you make of that?
[11:03]>> I do. I think that those eight Democrats, really, seven Democrats and one independent really, really did wrong by the caucus and actually also by the
[11:14]long-term interest of the American people in how they did that, right? I think it is it will be interesting to see how this is reflected around the fight for Chuck Schumer's job and
[11:24]whether or not a replacement is coming. But I think ultimately those eight Democratic Sen senators if you count Angus King, right, they really did a
[11:34]thing that was not part of the plan and was not effective because I don't see a lot of coverage right now about the insurance subsidies of those premiums, right? They've just left it. It's gone.
[11:45]We we s we had a week of a news cycle. Don't worry guys, we're promised a vote by John Thoon. Americans know that they can't trust Republican senators. So, I think they
[11:57]really missed the moment. There was really interesting polling as that fight was going on that showed that Democrats actually holding the line on those issues. the American people supported it and they wanted to see Democrats
[12:08]continue to hold the line on that issue and that if they they would continue to have higher favorability with voters, but actually especially among independents, those persuadable voters, they went pretty negative with them if
[12:20]they gave in and they did. So, I think they're going to have a little bit of recovery work to do on that front. >> And then when you're looking at 2026 first, do you think anything do you
[12:30]think they have enough time for recovery work there? because I know that the American people have short memories when it comes to shutdowns, right? Like you said, it's already out of the news cycle. No one's really talking about
[12:40]those ACA subsidies any longer. Do you think that that will be forgotten by November of next year? >> I think it's hard to say. I think that look, one of the reasons that the
[12:50]healthcare issue was so poignant around this last shutdown fight is because people were trying to go buy insurance on the exchange. It was open enrollment.
[13:00]So, we'll actually have similar calendar realities as people head into the midterms. I think that again though, it goes back to an issue that you raised earlier when we were beginning the
[13:10]conversation, which is who owns the affordability issue. And time and time again, as with Joe Biden before him, Donald Trump, the incumbent president who also enjoys majorities in the House
[13:22]and Senate, his party is going to own those issues. So Americans memories are short for things like electoral issues for things like economic pain and kitchen table issues. Those really
[13:34]motivate voters when it comes to to turning out. >> And when you looked at the wins from election night a few weeks ago, a progressive one in New York City, Zoramani, then you see more moderates
[13:44]win in Virginia and New Jersey, which isn't surprising. But when you're looking at 2028, the candidates that people are gravitating to, they're all over the spectrum, right? Newsome is a front runner in a lot of polls. One poll
[13:55]morning consult has um former vice president Harris. You have Pete Budadge, Alexandri Kaziocortez, Governor Pritsker, Shapiro Walls, Basher, Booker,
[14:05]Whitmer, Clolobachar. You're seeing all these names. I mean, you made the tea leaves for us. What are you looking for in 2028? Do you think it's Newsome's to
[14:15]lose? What does that look like? >> You know, I think it's too early to tell. I think that we've seen this in a lot of past cycles on both sides where there are names that appear, right, who out of the gate where you think that's
[14:26]got to be the one. That must be the guy or gal who's going to win the nod and it's possible, but sometimes I used to be a competitive runner, right? The person who goes out really fast in the
[14:36]race, right, is often not the person who uh kicks it in at the end and and comes through the tape first, right? It's those people drafting off of them a bit behind. So, I think Nuome is doing great
[14:48]work right now as Democrats go in terms of raising alarm about this authoritarian Republican party. I don't know where we see that take him in 2028. I think there are some names that you
[14:59]didn't mention. I actually think that Ruben Ggo is a very interesting candidate. He's the uh junior senator from Arizona. He is a person who really, I think, has a a unique bent to how he
[15:10]talks. And he himself, of course, is a Latino man and talks a lot about those types of issues. That's a a particular cohort of of the Democratic party that they used to count on that has gone
[15:21]away. And he's a person who beat Carrie Lake in that Senate race in the same year uh that Donald Trump also won the state of Arizona. So, I think that those purple state senators and governors are
[15:33]are really interesting. What I'm concerned about is what moves Republicans are going to make up and down the ballot right now that really could make it hard for us to have a fair
[15:43]election in 2028. So, I think that as these candidates get out and spread messages around affordability, around issues to make people's lives better, we also have to keep raising the alarm from
[15:54]my perspective about the real threat that this Republican party poses to the rule of law and ensuring that people are standing up and really trying to make sure we can shore up safeguards for our
[16:06]American democracy. And then when you look on the Republican side, it's a little less interesting because in all the polls, there's one very, very clear front runner and that's Vice President
[16:15]JD Vance. Everyone else is in a distant second, third, and so on. And he's obviously the heir to what people are calling MAGA. I mean, who do you think
[16:26]on the Democrat side would be best equipped to go head-to-head with him? And I know that, like you said, it's too early to tell. Everything can change. I mean, we saw in 2015 Jeb Bush was the
[16:36]front runner and President Trump was in a way, way distant place obviously how things change, but who do you think is one of those Democratic candidates who's best to go head-to-head with the Arab
[16:47]parent to >> Ruben Ggo? I do think a Ruben Ggo JD Vance matchup would really take the wind out of the sales with someone like JD
[16:56]Vance, right? similar tough background, you know, tough childhood, really uh incredible sort of American story, veteran military record, uh you know,
[17:07]put himself through Harvard as an RO in ROC, served in combat, uh you know, I think creates a really interesting antidote to the phoniness of of some of
[17:17]JD Vance's uh um currently crafted narrative. But again, I think that we are not paying enough attention to the things that people like Steve Bannon are saying when they talk
[17:29]about a Trump third term and Trump and and what will how that will unfold because I think that people now think, oh no, crisis averted. Donald Trump is going to go away and we're going to have
[17:40]a reset. Even if Donald Trump does not run for office or try to make the case for a third term in 2028, there is going to be some effort of foot among MAGA to
[17:51]keep the core Trump center in power. And that is the thing that I think is the biggest threat the American people face right now. So I think it's good to have our eyes on who will the elected
[18:02]officials be who put their throw their hats in the arena. But I think that there's a lot brewing under the surface with this Republican party that people need to be paying attention to outside of the normal paradigm of sort of say
[18:12]circa 2012 horse race politics. So [laughter] >> So that's really interesting. Um and my last question to you then is maybe not
[18:22]who should be or who do you think is going to be leading the Democratic party, but what exactly do you want to see them doing in the next year? And is that paying more attention to perhaps
[18:33]these far-right media personalities, see what they're saying? Because it's not so much fringe anymore. It seems like there's I mean, a lot of people on the internet watch the event and listen to
[18:43]people like Nick Fuentes. Do you want them to start listening to that and see where some people on the far right are getting their information? >> I'm so glad you mentioned that because
[18:55]it just struck me actually the other night. I was, you know, doing the kind of doom scrolling as I was lying in bed trying to get to sleep, which is the opposite of how to get to sleep. And I saw this post from Candace Owens that is
[19:05]just completely insane, right? It was about the idea that French President Emil Mcron and his wife have, you know, hired an assassin to kill her. Like totally deranged stuff. But what was
[19:16]really deranged is how many mainstream right-wing media personalities were retweeting it and engaging it and saying, "This is something we have to look at. Like this is interesting." How did we get to this place where someone
[19:28]like that has such a big following? Well, one of the things that I think is happening on the Democratic side is that the Democratic Party has to change the way that they engage with media. The Democratic Party is constantly asking
[19:39]themselves, "Oh, how do we find the next Joe Rogan? We need our own Joe Rogan." Well, NAGA doesn't just have one Joe Rogan, right? They have millions of influencers, small and large, who have
[19:51]these really loyal followings. But on the left, I think there's been this centralized approach to media. There's been this fear of um a sort of like dissemination of of voices in a way
[20:02]where you can't control the message, right? But as you do that, that means that you don't have genuine voices and media personalities that people engage with, right? And so actually centerright
[20:13]media and far-right media feels like home to people, right? They feel like these are genuine, authentic voices. And so I think I would like to see Democratic power players focus on
[20:25]actually how to loosen the grip actually and empower influencers across the leftwing spectrum to go really connect with their audiences in authentic ways
[20:36]and not try to control what those people say. They're not going to be able to at all get to the point of being on par with Republicans between now and even 2028. But I think that trying to take
[20:47]some lessons from the the structural playbook of right-wing media is the first step. >> Well, there's certainly a lot to look out for between now and 2026 and 2028
[20:58]and beyond. And I hope that as we're looking, you can join me and break it down and discuss. Lucy Caldwell, thank you so much for joining me. You're welcome back anytime. >> Britney, thank you so much for having
[21:10]me.