[0:01]It's not easy to see how they effectively run the next decade in the Pacific.
[0:06]I don't disagree with anything you said.
[0:21]And I don't know who he trusts on these kinds of...
[0:41]Who, the president?
[0:43]I don't know who the president really trusts.
[0:46]McDonough.
[0:47]On these kinds of strategic...
[0:48]McDonough.
[0:49]McDonough.
[0:50]McDonough.
[0:51]Yeah.
[0:52]The young guy.
[0:53]The young guy.
[0:54]Yeah, but he doesn't...
[0:55]I'll leave you with Valerie Jarrett.
[0:56]There is a woman named Samantha...
[0:59]Power.
[1:00]Power.
[1:01]Yeah.
[1:02]No.
[1:03]Yeah, but he doesn't...
[1:14]There's a difference between who he trusts and who he likes.
[1:19]Yeah.
[1:20]So I don't...
[1:21]The rest is shit.
[1:22]You know.
[1:23]He...
[1:24]Not Jarrett.
[1:25]You know Valerie Jarrett?
[1:26]Yeah.
[1:27]She's an idiot.
[1:28]She is?
[1:29]An idiot.
[1:30]I don't know her well enough.
[1:31]But I noticed that she...
[1:32]You know, but she's all right.
[1:33]Yeah.
[1:34]I noticed that Obama listens to her.
[1:35]Her...
[1:36]His door, his telephone is always open for her.
[1:37]He listens to her.
[1:38]He believes her instincts about politics, about who is against him, who is for him,
[1:57]what's going around.
[1:58]Who is hooking water from Chicago to the world.
[1:59]But it's like...
[2:00]Do you think Richard Nixon ultimately cared what...
[2:01]Listened to what B.B.
[2:02]Robozo thought?
[2:03]Listened to?
[2:06]You may not know this name.
[2:08]B.B.
[2:09]Robozo.
[2:10]No.
[2:11]No.
[2:12]I don't remember.
[2:13]Richard Nixon...
[2:14]Yeah.
[2:15]B.B.
[2:16]Robozo was some kind of business...
[2:17]Yeah.
[2:18]Semi-corrupt.
[2:21]Semi-corrupt.
[2:22]Semi-corrupt.
[2:23]Semi-corrupt.
[2:24]Semi-corrupt.
[2:25]Semi-corrupt.
[2:26]Semi-corrupt.
[2:27]Semi-corrupt.
[2:28]Semi-corrupt.
[2:29]Semi-corrupt.
[2:30]Semi-corrupt.
[2:31]Semi-corrupt.
[2:32]Semi-corrupt.
[2:33]Semi-corrupt.
[2:34]Semi-corrupt.
[2:35]Semi-corrupt.
[2:36]Semi-corrupt.
[2:37]Semi-corrupt.
[2:38]Semi-corrupt.
[2:39]Semi-corrupt.
[2:40]Semi-corrupt.
[2:41]Yeah.
[2:42]Semi-corrupt business guy.
[2:43]Yeah.
[2:44]Yeah.
[2:45]Who was Richard Nixon's best friend.
[2:46]And whenever Richard Nixon went to Key Biscayne or went to California, B.B.
[2:47]Robozo was there.
[2:48]Richard Nixon would spend a lot of time on B.B.
[2:49]Robozo's boat.
[2:50]And if B.B.
[2:51]Robozo wanted something Richard Nixon would say.
[2:52]But I don't think Richard Nixon was deciding what to do about the...
[2:54]China.
[2:55]He was talking to B.B.
[2:56]Robozo.
[2:57]Yeah.
[2:58]Okay.
[3:02]So in this regard, he's probably alone, but he feels, comparing to other leaders that
[3:12]I happened to meet in the last decades, Obama impressed me as an extremely autonomous person.
[3:21]Exactly, that's what I'm saying.
[3:22]He feels good with himself, even when he's alone in the room.
[3:28]I didn't see in him what we know in Clinton, or in our Paris, and Anshati, I have an intelligent
[3:36]experience there, emotionally or psychologically, there is there, deep in there, within the
[3:43]priority, and Anshati will need for love, for explicit expressions of love.
[3:50]I didn't see anything of this in Obama.
[3:52]I've never seen, I mean there's lots of things, lots of things to say about you.
[4:02]Somebody told me.
[4:03]Somebody told me this story that Bob Reich, he was secretary of labor with Clinton.
[4:11]Yeah, a small guy.
[4:12]A small guy.
[4:13]He said he had been a friend of Clinton's, they'd been students together in England,
[4:19]so he was kind of Clinton's friend.
[4:22]He said that if he went to a cabinet meeting, and whenever Clinton looked at him, he looked
[4:28]annoyed or looked away, for sure Clinton would call within two days.
[4:34]How's it going Bob?
[4:35]What's up?
[4:36]Is there something on your mind?
[4:37]What's going on?
[4:38]He just wanted love.
[4:39]If you tried that shit with Obama, you'd freeze in hell before he called.
[4:40]I mean, Obama didn't, he had lunch, he was pretty much set to have lunch alone half
[4:41]the days.
[4:42]Is that right?
[4:43]Yeah.
[4:44]I mean, they would schedule in like time for him to be alone.
[4:45]And if he did, if he did some event, where you know, he was speaking to a thousand people.
[4:46]No.
[4:47]No.
[4:48]No.
[4:49]No.
[4:50]No.
[4:51]No.
[4:52]No.
[4:53]No.
[4:54]No.
[4:55]No.
[4:56]No.
[4:57]No.
[4:58]No.
[4:59]No.
[5:00]No.
[5:01]No.
[5:02]No.
[5:03]No.
[5:04]No.
[5:05]No.
[5:06]No.
[5:07]No.
[5:08]No.
[5:09]No.
[5:10]No.
[5:11]It would give him like a little rest time afterwards.
[5:12]No.
[5:13]No.
[5:14]There are too… too many human beings around him.
[5:15]Yeah, he just wanted to be, yeah.
[5:16]He had no...
[5:17]And, you know, it's the same.
[5:18]He wants to be with the people he wants to be with.
[5:19]I think that it's a source of strength ultimately in tough moments in politics.
[5:27]Probably, it's not the most effective way to mobilize people.
[5:33]No, but it's...
[5:35]Oh, wait.
[5:36]Or look, another thing, which I'm sure they tried.
[5:40]If you were president, let's say you're president of the United States,
[5:46]and you like to play golf.
[5:49]You like to?
[5:51]You're president of the United States, and you like to play golf.
[5:54]No.
[5:55]Which he does.
[5:56]No.
[5:57]It's a potential big political asset that you like to play golf.
[6:04]No.
[6:05]The president likes to play golf with his buddies.
[6:08]And so 80% of the golf is with the same three guys.
[6:14]His photographer, his campaign guy, and his three buddies from Chicago.
[6:20]That's who plays golf.
[6:21]Now, most people, if they were president and they played golf,
[6:26]they'd play golf with people from Congress.
[6:28]They'd play golf with business guys.
[6:30]They'd play golf with people who would read Clinton memoirs.
[6:36]Yeah.
[6:36]It's all boring.
[6:36]Because it's like a list of the things, what he had done,
[6:40]and still very careful not to insult anyone years after he's not in office anymore.
[6:48]And Obama just is not...
[6:54]Cerebral.
[6:55]He's extremely cerebral.
[6:57]They called him...
[6:58]Yeah, and he has this nickname.
[7:02]Their nickname for him during the campaign was Black Jesus.
[7:06]Is that right?
[7:07]Yeah.
[7:07]Who knows?
[7:09]What kind?
[7:09]What kind of character Jesus was.
[7:11]No, but he has this sense of himself as not me.
[7:20]You know, I think of other elements.
[7:26]I think seven or eight, probably Kennedy.
[7:43]He doesn't see the rest of them.
[7:47]He understands that greatness comes from the side of achievement,
[7:57]sometimes against hindsight.
[8:04]And that's, I think, even when he's in Iran,
[8:10]this will be a great stain on his role.
[8:19]If they turn nuclear under risk, he had, you know, Bush, it's a paradox.
[8:29]You will to joke in Israel that labor governments can make war,
[8:39]and only the good governments can make peace.
[8:42]Here you find something similar.
[8:44]The Bush administration, they can run very high rhetoric.
[8:48]But in effect, they were parallel even from ordering the Pentagon to plan contingency.
[8:53]This administration, they got Nobel Peace Prize.
[8:59]They're dumb.
[9:00]They got one payment before they even started it.
[9:02]Somehow, they are planning and preparing much more seriously.
[9:06]I mean, the Pentagon, right now, they keep improving.
[9:10]I used to scorn American colleagues that when we are talking about surgical operations,
[9:19]we are talking about using scalpel.
[9:22]And they are talking about chisel with 10 pounds hammer.
[9:25]And, but in the last several years,
[9:29]they developed extremely subtle scalpel, probably more effective than ours.
[9:37]And bear in mind that they hold the big stick there anyhow, without having to announce it.
[9:48]Basically, I once told the President, look, I'm confident that if on a scale,
[9:55]a spectrum of operational decisions, a decision to delay,
[10:01]the Iranian nuclear program by several years would look more like a raid on Bin Laden
[10:12]than a fully fledged war in Iraq, you might have considered very seriously already.
[10:19]It is only the fact that somehow people succeeded in implanting in your mind an extremely dramatic scenario
[10:32]that might eventually develop out of it,
[10:35]that makes you judge it as something closer to the other pole.
[10:42]And that's not an accurate description of reality.
[10:48]When you start out, you're exactly right,
[11:00]but I started thinking that part of his grand legacy
[11:09]was that he was going to bring hope and harmony to the big military.
[11:15]That he was going to give the Tyro speech,
[11:18]that the Islamic world was going to feel better about him.
[11:21]That Israel was going to be induced to be constructive.
[11:26]That there was going to be peace in the West Bank.
[11:29]And then everybody was going to feel better.
[11:31]And he was going to do, for Iran, what Nixon did for China.
[11:35]And so, I think he started with the idea that he was going to be a visionary great man.
[11:42]And I think he's done that in a few ways.
[11:44]he's learned in the last four years that that's not gonna happen and now i think he thinks and now
[11:51]i think it's much more defensive that is i think he's trying to avoid a stain
[11:57]rather than to have him rather than to have it is my sense yeah
[12:04]is my sense watching but is he but how long i have this sense that people always say
[12:28]the next year is the crucial year the next nine months are the crucial nine months
[12:34]about what about iran but then it sort of moves drifts moves a quarter every quarter
[12:45]move forward a quarter every quarter yeah it's like uh shale oil was you know it's i think it's
[12:51]no longer true but for for 40 years the price at which shale oil would be profitable was the same
[12:59]the current price of oil plus 10.
[13:05]yeah but when it's 100 plus 10 is different no no it's no longer four plus ten eight plus ten
[13:11]right but it's um but is is iran likely to come to a crunch in the next um in the next year
[13:23]what's the country to to reach a nuclear capacity is there likely to be well no i mean
[13:28]one question but i mean so things that could happen are there could be an attack let me
[13:33]describe it the foreign way iranians will always act based on what they feel to what extent the
[13:44]other side mainly the united states and israel are ready to act and they're clever enough to to
[13:51]act counter counter cyclists namely with the attention of the whole world somewhere else or
[14:00]or for other reasons, will be paralyzed from doing something,
[14:06]they will be, when all of us are focused on it and stand ready,
[14:15]they might even go with further gambits.
[14:17]They might enough really stop everything for a year, just in order to...
[14:22]And they are chess players, extremely clever,
[14:26]but they are determined to follow in the footsteps of Pakistan and North Korea.
[14:33]And not to fall into the trap of Qadhafi, late Qadhafi, or under other circumstances.
[14:43]Really, they want not to end with something like Iraq or Syria.
[14:52]So the very fact that I can quote these three pairs of examples
[14:58]means that there is opening for them.
[15:03]They need for something much more dramatic than the present kind of level of sanctions.
[15:07]They are very unprecedented and very painful for them.
[15:10]They use their reserves dramatically,
[15:17]and some of the reserves are...
[15:18]Practically blocked, they cannot approach it very easily.
[15:22]Riyadh, the currency, the...
[15:33]And it's not easy, but as we know from other examples in the past,
[15:36]the elites don't suffer.
[15:41]See, that's what I was struck by. I was struck...
[15:44]I didn't see...
[15:48]Treated the country as one actor, doing what was best for the country,
[15:57]then I think there's a case to be made that the...
[16:04]Reward, take off the sanctions, give them rewards, they give up the nukes, all that.
[16:09]I...
[16:10]But if you take it from the point of view of the people who are there now,
[16:15]I don't see how if the sanctions come off and they give up the nukes,
[16:20]they're alive and in power a year later.
[16:24]You know, it's...
[16:26]The basic strategy of the regime is to defend its...
[16:37]And for them...
[16:38]We're talking from time to time about a zone of immunity for the military program.
[16:47]But the whole program aims at achieving another layer of immunity,
[16:53]an immunity for the regime.
[16:55]They see...
[16:56]Look at what happened right now in North Korea.
[17:00]They fully understand Iran.
[17:02]Once they turn nuclear,
[17:04]that's become the ultimate guarantee that no one will try to intervene
[17:09]within their internal...
[17:11]However brutal they might have to go with their own people.
[17:15]So that's what they're...
[17:18]They do not need it in order to drop a bomb on a neighbor.
[17:23]They need it in order to be able to spread terror,
[17:26]to hegemonize the region,
[17:28]to intimidate neighbors,
[17:30]and to be secure that whatever they are doing will not end up with
[17:34]someone trying to topple the regime.
[17:39]So I think that the problem is that for us, for Israel,
[17:42]time is running out.
[17:45]Because they keep acting, they keep enriching,
[17:49]they keep repairing more centrifuges.
[17:51]And now it starts with a new version of centrifuges
[17:53]that will be only five times more effective in enrichment.
[17:58]That shortens the time frame between decisions
[18:01]and reaching weapon-grade capabilities running from...
[18:05]They protect better the sites.
[18:10]They improve radars to identify stealth.
[18:19]They are not sleeping.
[18:21]They already built a force of some six,
[18:24]six-five hundred,
[18:26]to place into their places
[18:30]in the Straits of Hormuz.
[18:33]In Africa, down the sea,
[18:35]Israel has its limited military potential.
[18:44]And they are not sleeping.
[18:46]And they are not sleeping.
[18:48]And they are not sleeping.
[18:56]And they are not sleeping.
[18:57]And they are not sleeping.
[18:59]And they are not sleeping.
[19:01]And they are not sleeping.
[19:03]Their military potential won't be able to delay them by significant...
[19:09]And probably a year later or 18 months later,
[19:14]even America won't be able to do it in a clearly surgical operation.
[19:20]And that's basically their calculation.
[19:23]So they do not have a timetable.
[19:27]It doesn't matter for them.
[19:28]They waited for nuclear weapons for years or...
[19:34]For all of them, four years, it doesn't matter.
[19:37]They just want to reach it before they start to collapse as a regime.
[19:46]Will their election matter?
[19:50]It matters because it gives excuses to those who don't want to create a moment of truth,
[19:57]not to reach this moment.
[19:59]Under normal situation, the coming spring, it should have been a moment of truth,
[20:05]or P5-1 is going to meet in other style.
[20:09]After what was probably a direct conversation, there was some rumors that Valerie started to...
[20:16]She was born in Iran, in Shiraz. Her father...
[20:19]Who was in Iran?
[20:20]Valerie Jarret was born in Iran.
[20:24]Where is she really?
[20:25]In Shiraz.
[20:26]Her father was before the revolution.
[20:30]He was heading a hospital financed by some international NGO, by American government,
[20:38]to help the...
[20:39]Iranian people.
[20:40]So she was born there.
[20:42]And some others, even, you know, some former players, including one of my former colleagues
[20:55]and some former leading ambassadors, tried to create a direct contact with the Iranians
[21:04]to try to clarify what would be the terms and the reasons.
[21:08]And the Iranians assumed, I know it, I'm not guessing,
[21:12]that this type of guys would not have contacted them without informing the...
[21:21]the...
[21:22]N.F.C.
[21:23]or State Department, Pentagon, whatever.
[21:26]And so for them, even if the intention is not this, it is read by the Iranians as...
[21:33]And they might end up...
[21:34]I recommend it to the...
[21:41]I told them, you cannot pretend to be able to tell you whether to talk to them directly
[21:45]directly or not, if you feel that's ultimately necessary to make sure that you exhausted all alternatives.
[21:56]But if you do it, do it as early as possible, so that coming the election, coming April,
[22:02]they will have to face a choice, because if they reach election and you are still negotiating with them,
[22:08]they will tell their people, we are standing firm and give the whole world including America,
[22:12]we are not crawling to our doorstep to ask for some concessions.
[22:17]And at the same time they keep moving, it's ridiculous.
[22:21]And I guess that even after election, someone else will be elected, whoever he is,
[22:29]there will be people who will say, oh, that's a moderate, assume that they will elect someone
[22:35]who is less, just less, kind of less colorful than Ahmadinejad.
[22:44]Immediately there will be interpretations that he is more serious, more moderate.
[22:48]But he is moderate, I am too light, that makes a difference.
[22:53]He should get a chance, so it will swallow another quarter.
[22:57]So that's how 2013 is going to pass.
[23:02]That's one of the reasons why I decided to leave, because I don't see it converging into a moment,
[23:08]a real moment of truth or decision.
[23:11]It can easily drag over another year.
[23:16]At a certain point they will turn nuclear.
[23:18]I told the president, I remember Clinton.
[23:21]I never questioned his will to block North Korea, but somehow it didn't happen.
[23:30]I told Jeff, I remember sitting with Bill Casey, it was Reagan time,
[23:36]as head of our intelligence.
[23:39]In regard to Pakistan, it was exactly the same.
[23:42]How many sites, how many centrifuges, how about a plutonium bypass,
[23:47]where can they...
[23:48]It didn't work.
[23:51]Reagan wanted to see them non-nuclear, but that's what might easily happen.
[23:59]And if it happens, now what?
[24:05]I think it will, first of all, it will be the end of any considerable non-proliferation regime.
[24:14]Because it basically means that if you can defy the whole world,
[24:17]if you have enough money, not a huge amount of money,
[24:21]and it will start a much more...
[24:28]self-confident intimidation of neighbors,
[24:32]which is still the major supplier of oil to Europe, to the east, to the south.
[24:40]And the regimes there are already kind of crushed between two powers,
[24:47]one is Iran and the other is the Islamists in Turkey and Egypt,
[24:51]kind of pillars of the...
[24:56]main pillars of the Middle East.
[24:59]And the Saudi leadership,
[25:01]they are dying, I don't know how you call this phenomenon,
[25:05]where a candle is just about to die.
[25:08]Flicker.
[25:09]Flicker.
[25:10]Flicker.
[25:11]So the old man there is practically...
[25:19]They now just nominated the third one, someone about our age,
[25:23]a bit of intelligent mucre.
[25:30]But I don't believe anyone sees him as a...
[25:32]Probably knife, another carving will become ultimate.
[25:37]But it's...
[25:38]They are not self-confident.
[25:40]And Abdallah Jordan is not self-confident.
[25:43]The UAE is...
[25:45]Some of the Emirates are much more confident because of their money,
[25:50]but it's all...
[25:51]The Qataris are confident, aren't they?
[25:56]They behave, yeah.
[25:58]They behave this way.
[26:00]It's a...
[26:01]I call them a TV station with the Emirates.
[26:04]It's a type of...
[26:07]I know, I met the...
[26:10]Jasson.
[26:17]Oh, he came?
[26:18]Yeah.
[26:19]The security conference?
[26:20]Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[26:21]And I talked to him.
[26:25]The Americans, I met Kerry this morning.
[26:27]And I told him they are just starting to hedge their bets
[26:38]against the possibility that you will be the...
[26:41]We will be the losers and Iran will be the winners.
[26:44]That's all.
[26:45]They start...
[26:46]They see Turkey and Egypt under Islamist government,
[26:51]so they become more Islamist.
[26:53]They see the determination of the Iranians,
[26:56]and what happens in Iraq,
[26:58]so they turn more pro-Iranian.
[27:00]So it ends up that they're less pro-us or pro-the others.
[27:05]It's...
[27:06]That's...
[27:07]They're trying to survive.
[27:09]So Kerry, several years ago, I asked...
[27:13]Not him, the other one.
[27:14]I asked him...
[27:17]Even then, I asked him,
[27:19]are you starting to hedge your bets with this stuff?
[27:22]He told me, look at Google Earth.
[27:25]In front of our shows, you will find certain...
[27:27]A place where you can find two wells,
[27:31]25 yards from each other.
[27:34]One is other, the other is Iranian.
[27:38]They were practically drinking from the same...
[27:43]The same...
[27:44]The same...
[27:45]The same place.
[27:48]Whoever has a bigger...
[27:50]Higher diameter of a...
[27:53]Of a pipe takes more.
[27:56]And so we have to take them into account.
[27:58]So Middle Eastern...
[28:05]What's happening in Egypt?
[28:06]What's your...
[28:17]For the best kind of ideology,
[28:19]a kind of vision.
[28:24]Morsi is an engineer.
[28:29]The same diameter, the...
[28:34]Bolt and the...
[28:36]The knot and the same...
[28:38]It doesn't end with ideology.
[28:40]The same spiral that...
[28:42]And the...
[28:43]The great leader,
[28:45]which is not...
[28:50]Unlike the...
[28:52]Ayatollah that come...
[28:53]The...
[28:54]The great leader...
[28:55]Ayatollah that come...
[28:56]He was not a religious scholar.
[28:57]He was a veteran.
[28:58]But I have to vaccinate.
[28:59]I have to make sure that they can't get pregnant.
[29:01]It's practical.
[29:02]And the third one is that one who's supposed to run for president.
[29:07]He's a businessman.
[29:16]To create a million jobs in China and other countries.
[29:46]They need you.
[29:47]They need Americans.
[29:48]They believe that America gives all those...
[29:51]And they see.
[30:03]They see.
[30:04]After a very short time,
[30:05]they see the...
[30:06]This...
[30:07]The kind of stress of the public.
[30:08]of the public, the resentment, the rejection in the streets, right now. So I believe that
[30:16]they could be, their actual behavior, probably not their vision, but their actual behavior
[30:21]could be shifted. I even told my colleagues here that I didn't see any reason to keep
[30:29]providing them with, it doesn't make sense, they don't need it against Libya, they don't
[30:35]need it against Sudan. So basically you help them to accumulate against Israel, and then
[30:41]Israel asks to accumulate more. And you pay both, it's unlike the Saudis and the Emirates
[30:49]that pay for whatever they want. Then probably it's better to take this one half billion
[30:57]or whatever and pour it into their economy, the infrastructure, some projects that you
[31:04]can have a say about.
[31:06]What's the Israel? I mean, something will happen in Iran, maybe we'll succeed, maybe
[31:24]we won't, and that'll make it worse, but the demography seems terrible. Nobody's sane
[31:32]seems to be procreating, and everybody is sane in their own way, seems to have five
[31:38]children, whether it's Arabs or Orthodox, five children. If you're regular Israeli,
[31:45]you have one and a half children.
[31:48]The Haredim are more productive than the Arabs. We cancelled some of the, we had exponential
[32:00]support function for productivity. It's something bizarre. Rather to be an escort, we have
[32:08]a friend with three children that tell him, another two and you are deep into the social
[32:18]security trap.
[32:19]That's your enjoyment.
[32:20]The future of Israel is waking up at the right moment, even faster. It will be a bi-nation
[32:47]at first and then a generation with an Arab majority. In fact, one of Abu Mazen's leadership,
[32:58]Abu Ala, he was the one who negotiated with us. He negotiated with Tzipi Livni, far from
[33:13]the public eye, and she demanded that he would recognize Israel, the Jewish state, as part
[33:24]of any document. I told her, you know, I cannot do it. If you continue with this demand,
[33:37]it will probably turn into one state, a big state.
[33:43]From the Jordan to the Mediterranean, every citizen will get a vote, and the majority
[33:52]will decide what could be simpler. So it's not a, there is a need to stop this immediately.
[34:00]But in a way, it's a collective blindness of our society. The site field is not full.
[34:11]You don't, there are some people who do not see everything, what's going to happen. You
[34:15]don't see anything. So that's what happens to our society right now. So that's number
[34:21]one. And that's why it's not a zero-sum game. We are not making them a favor, doing a favor
[34:27]to them. But even within the borders of smaller Israel, there is still an issue. And I think
[34:39]the Arabs are growing slowly. They were 40 years ago, they were 16% and now they are.
[34:47].
[34:50]to make, to provide equality, first to the Druze, they are about 1%, they are totally
[34:59]Israelis in their behavior by security people, by the military aid that came for the president,
[35:06]some generals, some pilots are Druze. Then we should take the Christian minority, they
[35:14]are about another 2%, because they have an education system which is better than ours.
[35:20]Like minority, it reminds me somehow of our students, especially between the Dnieper and the Gronach.
[35:31]The minority with a sense of being kind of isolated from, they accept everything they are doing.
[35:40]Then we have, I believe we have to break the monopoly of the Orthodox rabbinate on marriage and
[35:50]funerals and whatever.
[35:52]That's the definition of a Jew.
[35:54]And accept, open in a sophisticated, subtle manner, open the gates from massive conversion into Judaism.
[36:08]Many will apply, at the beginning without making it a precondition, but under the social pressure,
[36:16]the need, especially of the second generation to adapt, it will happen.
[36:21]And we can control the quality, much more effective than our ancestors or the founding fathers of Israel
[36:31]could did with the ways that it was a kind of salvation way from North Africa, from the Arab world, from whatever.
[36:37]They took whatever came for us to save people.
[36:41]Now we can be selective.
[36:43]And I think that with much more, much more open kind of mind about, you know,
[36:49]turning Jew.
[36:52]We can easily absorb another million.
[36:58]I used to tell Putin always, what we need is not just one more million.
[37:04]He changed Israel in a dramatic, dramatic manner.
[37:09]The million Russians.
[37:12]And I see that many will prefer to be Belorussian.
[37:18]Many young, handsome girls will come.
[37:21]We now have, we used to, then you come, you interview someone entering into some unit in the army,
[37:34]asking what's your name, he answers, Sergei Biton.
[37:38]It's already started to work, Sergei Biton, Vladimir Abutbol.
[37:43]You find everything.
[37:45]I think that, I'm optimistic.
[37:50]There's some necessity creates more flexibility.
[37:54]And we have the background.
[37:56]It depends on what you look for.
[37:58]The, I used to scorn the Haredim all the time about the Bedouin wife of Moses.
[38:07]He went to the, they brought the Bedouin wife.
[38:11]Zipporah was Bedouin.
[38:13]Or the grand-grandmother of King David.
[38:15]She was Moabite that seduced his grand-grandfather in the field.
[38:21]And the whole story is there.
[38:28]So we can be more tolerant.
[38:30]I think that...
[38:31]Is there any recognition of, I mean,
[38:32]what you said about smaller Israel, not bigger Israel, is the only prospect.
[38:37]That seems right, but there doesn't seem to be any recognition within the country.
[38:43]There is.
[38:45]There is certain lying recognition.
[38:50]It's not, you know, we had the quite surrealistic election right now.
[38:56]These questions are extremely interesting.
[38:59]Both Iran and the Palestinian issue.
[39:03]But the whole discussion was about the draft law for Haredim
[39:09]and the memories of the recent kind of...
[39:13]We had much more genuine, a wider field.
[39:16]Occupy Wall Street kind of...
[39:19]More genuine.
[39:21]Really mobilized masses.
[39:24]And they appeared.
[39:25]They took the son of Tommy LaPee, the journalist that everyone knows because he's handsome.
[39:30]And he appears every Friday evening.
[39:32]The most popular TV anchor.
[39:38]And he became, out of nowhere, not a drop of a...
[39:42]It's like taking a presenter of a bank, making him the CEO, which I can't say.
[39:47]And became the second largest party.
[39:51]But that reflects somehow the uneasiness of the mainstream,
[39:56]Israel, the old elites and the youngsters,
[40:00]from what we are doing.
[40:02]So I think that probably a wake-up call will come.
[40:05]I always hope not through a painful crisis where you have to bury the...
[40:17]Through something softer.
[40:18]But basically there is a clear, clear...
[40:21]Whoever is ready to think of it independently knows what should be done.
[40:25]We should launch immediately a dramatic effort.
[40:28]Even if we know that probably it won't yield a fully fledged piece.
[40:33]But it can yield quite easily an interim agreement,
[40:36]where we set for a solution for borders and security.
[40:42]And the world guarantees the Palestinians that it will not remain so.
[40:46]That within five years there will be a solution for the rest of the world.
[40:52]I think that we have to launch immediately with the American effort
[40:58]to create a regional security system based on the America, Europe,
[41:04]the moderate Arab countries and Israel.
[41:06]Focused on blocking the fundamentalist terror,
[41:11]Islamist terror, missile defense and cornering Iran
[41:16]and coming to terms with the Islamist government.
[41:22]And that will help those...
[41:27]The fact that we are moving with the Palestinians
[41:30]will help those moderate Sunni leaders,
[41:33]most of them are monarchs and emirs.
[41:35]To join hands with us and America vis-à-vis Iran.
[41:40]Because they personally don't care about the Palestinians probably.
[41:44]But they are fully aware that they are peoples.
[41:47]In their streets there will be a very high price to work with Israel
[41:51]to modify the tensions if we are not going with the Palestinians.
[41:56]And for the Israeli public this will create a kind of framework
[42:00]for something reasonable.
[42:02]We join hands.
[42:03]We do not promise heaven on earth
[42:06]but we join hands with the white people in the region of the world
[42:10]to solve concrete issues.
[42:14]It will help a lot to reduce the tensions.
[42:23]And even somehow if...
[42:25]I see when you focus only on the Palestinian-Israeli issue,
[42:33]Israelis feel fire, we say in Yiddish,
[42:36]kind of a...
[42:38]If they...
[42:39]It's because they remember I pulled out from Lebanon,
[42:44]there are 60,000.
[42:46]Sharon pulled out from Gaza, there are 10,000.
[42:49]If we will pull out from the West Bank,
[42:52]there will be just behind the...
[42:55]When you come to land, to Ben Gurion,
[42:57]you go over some 2,000 feet over Arab...
[43:02]the occupied territories.
[43:04]It could be crazy.
[43:05]In Slovakia?
[43:07]People feel that we are only giving,
[43:11]we cannot get anything.
[43:12]And it's true.
[43:13]People from the Palestinians cannot get anything.
[43:15]But once you put into the equation
[43:18]the whole Arab moderate world,
[43:20]it ends up that you get a lot,
[43:23]recognition from the Arab world.
[43:25]That's been the argument.
[43:26]But the problem is that's been the argument for...
[43:29]in one way or another.
[43:30]Something...
[43:31]Last 20 years.
[43:32]Yeah, I was going to say the last 15 years.
[43:35]And it seems like it's less...
[43:39]It's a less strong argument.
[43:41]That's a success
[43:43]in the negative sense.
[43:46]He became successful in convincing our people
[43:52]that we did our part of it.
[43:55]That we tried.
[43:57]And all the responsibility is upon the shoulders of...
[44:00]Which is not true.
[44:02]We never tried in the last four years to make...
[44:09]We were never ready to make painful decisions
[44:13]in order to ever break through.
[44:15]Play the round.
[44:17]Abu Mazen is responsible partly for what happens.
[44:21]The Americans made mistakes.
[44:24]The Europeans made a lot of mistakes.
[44:26]But that doesn't...
[44:28]Cannot justify our, I don't know,
[44:32]it's failure for...
[44:37]Yeah, and it's true.
[44:38]And Abu Mazen doesn't help.
[44:41]He's not an easy client.
[44:43]Do people expect that
[44:46]Obama and Kerry
[44:48]are going to invest heavily
[44:50]in Israel-Palestinians?
[44:52]No.
[44:53]Why don't they?
[44:54]Or that they're going to stay away from it?
[44:56]Probably they dream about it, some of them.
[44:58]But I don't think they...
[45:01]I think the rhythm of Obama's visit
[45:05]is that he has to do it.
[45:07]There are even some stories that
[45:09]it was born
[45:11]in not exactly normal way
[45:14]that Perez, who got here
[45:17]with a kind of liberty medal,
[45:22]planned to bring Obama in June,
[45:27]bring him some medal of the Israeli president,
[45:32]to participate in a conference
[45:34]that Perez initiates
[45:37]in the last several years, every June,
[45:39]and to participate in his 90th birthday.
[45:42]You can't arrange a funeral,
[45:45]at least arrange a birthday.
[45:48]And promoted by some people
[45:53]who supported
[45:56]Obama actively.
[46:02]So he said,
[46:03]OK, yes, no problem.
[46:06]Then his people heard about it
[46:09]and some Jewish owners heard about it
[46:11]and said,
[46:12]Are you crazy?
[46:13]You're going to make a private visit?
[46:14]You missed Israel.
[46:19]You have to...
[46:20]The only way is to make a formal visit
[46:22]and to be hosted by the prime minister.
[46:25]So he found himself there.
[46:29]Then he thought twice and thought,
[46:31]Yeah, it's not that bad.
[46:32]Probably just to make sure that
[46:34]I cease to be the reason for everything,
[46:37]the fact that I didn't visit Israel,
[46:40]now that because of this
[46:42]everything doesn't work.
[46:44]So OK, let's be there,
[46:46]visit all the capitals,
[46:48]talk to the people.
[46:50]I don't think that's dramatic
[46:55]in the long run.
[46:56]Clinton...
[46:59]You would know infinitely better than I,
[47:01]but Clinton at a certain point
[47:03]decided that this was his path
[47:06]to a Nobel Prize in history.
[47:09]And I don't think...
[47:11]Obama does not feel on that trajectory
[47:13]to move forward.
[47:14]He's not a geologist.
[47:15]But Kerry, it seems to me,
[47:17]will decide that's what he wants to do, won't he?
[47:19]No.
[47:20]I mean, the imperatives of Kerry's job
[47:22]are that if he wants to have
[47:25]a historic achievement to end his career,
[47:28]he's not going to get a historic achievement
[47:30]out of anything they do in the Pacific.
[47:32]No.
[47:33]I think the understanding
[47:35]that he plans to come to Israel,
[47:38]probably even before,
[47:40]I don't know how to cut it.
[47:42]Just take it.
[47:44]I want to take so much.
[47:45]I know.
[47:46]You can leave it on your plate.
[47:53]I think that Kerry made several missions
[48:05]for Obama in the past,
[48:07]sometimes with Palestinians.
[48:12]I can't stand it.
[48:13]Sometimes with the Karzai.
[48:15]No, the Karzai, that's far from our medium.
[48:19]But with Assad.
[48:20]The young Assad.
[48:21]And he came as a kind of freelancer.
[48:27]He used to be always,
[48:29]if by his very enthusiasm,
[48:32]he will, it will...
[48:35]Infect.
[48:36]I will call it, yeah.
[48:37]Contagion will take place
[48:38]and there will be all this enthusiasm.
[48:43]Before they land,
[48:45]they will have something.
[48:55]He's more realistic now.
[48:56]And he knows that he comes too early.
[49:04]Bibi doesn't have a fixed idea
[49:06]about what should be done
[49:07]and then he makes the government,
[49:10]the government that can do it.
[49:11]He just waits to see
[49:13]what kind of government he has
[49:14]and then he will modify
[49:16]what he wants to achieve.
[49:18]If Kerry comes too late,
[49:20]too early for this.
[49:22]But he wants to make sure
[49:24]that Abu Mazen is with him.
[49:28]He's more realistic.
[49:29]He will try.
[49:30]But I think he needs a lot of luck,
[49:34]probably some intervention.
[49:36]Opportunity for a fully fledged,
[49:43]an agreement will be...
[49:44]Since you left,
[49:53]who's now going to be leaving government,
[49:56]he's going to go into the real world
[49:58]after 50 years.
[49:59]It was his birthday two days ago,
[50:01]your birthday, yes?
[50:02]Uh-huh.
[50:03]How old are you?
[50:11]Born exactly six course
[50:13]and 13 years after Lincoln.
[50:17]Same day.
[50:18]And have you been,
[50:21]have you ever been in the private sector?
[50:23]Yeah.
[50:24]You've been in government.
[50:25]I have been for several years.
[50:26]You were for several years
[50:28]after you were prime minister.
[50:30]Yeah.
[50:31]You were in the private sector
[50:33]and doing various kinds of business.
[50:37]Yeah.
[50:38]I was involved with two.
[50:40]Equity.
[50:43]This is a part of the advice
[50:53]to several,
[50:54]some of the biggest hedge funds
[50:56]and private equity.
[50:57]The consultant
[51:02]and made some lectures
[51:05]and participate in some
[51:07]small scale opportunities.
[51:09]Some Israel companies wanted to work
[51:11]in Africa,
[51:12]Africa make IPO in London.
[51:14]They need someone who can be with them
[51:17]when they come to London
[51:18]and the people will listen to them.
[51:21]And is that the kind of thing you're going to,
[51:26]is that the kind of thing
[51:27]I don't know.
[51:28]you're going to try,
[51:29]you're going to try to do now?
[51:30]I think of making,
[51:33]finding ways to make more money
[51:35]and to do something more substantive,
[51:37]but I cannot go with my agent
[51:40]from this position
[51:42]and start to high resolution level
[51:49]running an operation
[51:51]or whatever
[51:53]that will be too late in life.
[51:56]And are you,
[52:00]do you think you're now done with government?
[52:03]Do you think you're now done?
[52:09]Or do you always looking for,
[52:14]I mean Israeli politics
[52:16]I'm not looking.
[52:17]is very cyclical.
[52:19]I'm not looking.
[52:21]And I'm,
[52:23]I don't have any kind of burning,
[52:28]compelling motive to come back
[52:30]and to prove something justified.
[52:32]But with our kind of stage where we are,
[52:45]I cannot exclude that under certain types of crisis
[52:49]I might be called.
[52:53]Not, I don't know,
[52:58]backward with any kind of hard feelings
[53:01]or unlike, I don't know,
[53:05]if you knew Sharon.
[53:08]Sharon was burning with a kind of sense of,
[53:13]that had not been completed
[53:15]from the time he could not become
[53:17]the Chief of Staff.
[53:18]Then he could not become a Prime Minister.
[53:21]He was Defense Minister.
[53:22]He was sent out under kind of inquiry commission
[53:25]that blamed him with some missteps and so on.
[53:29]So he was burning it.
[53:31]And he didn't see even the lines.
[53:34]He basically got the stroke
[53:36]in the evening or in the morning.
[53:38]Major headlines said that he got
[53:41]according to the police,
[53:42]3.5 billion as a bribe
[53:44]to finance some kind of political activity.
[53:52]Even Rabin was burning with need
[53:54]to come back after his first.
[54:01]But I know that I might be called.
[54:04]So I would not do something that deliberately
[54:08]and for sure will close the way back.
[54:13]I will not hesitate to go something that might.
[54:16]The significant probability will stretch me
[54:21]in a way that will make it almost impenetrable
[54:31]if it's tempting enough by the conversation.
[54:38]Probably the way to have the greatest chance
[54:46]to come back,
[54:47]look least interested and eager to come back.
[54:56]I think that's an irony of political life
[55:00]is that when you look like you don't need it
[55:04]and don't want it,
[55:08]you become more desirable.
[55:13]You become more desirable as a...
[55:17]But you would go back to government
[55:22]at this stage?
[55:24]I'm like he...
[55:26]I wasn't prime minister of my country.
[55:28]And I'm not going to be president of my country.
[55:38]I am, I think, in the same general...
[55:42]I'm a little younger, I'm 58.
[55:44]But I'm in the same general place.
[55:46]I think that there were moments in my life
[55:51]when I was burning in the 1990s.
[56:14]Now, if the right role presented itself,
[56:17]the right role that I want to do anything,
[56:24]I don't want to carelessly foreclose options
[56:31]since I don't know what I'm going to want in the future.
[56:35]But unlike to take somebody I was friendly with,
[56:40]whenever Richard Holbrooke was not in government,
[56:45]his whole life was organized around
[56:49]figuring out how to maximize the chance.
[56:52]Once they asked me,
[57:05]you know, where was the Democratic Party,
[57:09]where's the Democratic Party going to be
[57:11]on the nonproliferation agreement?
[57:13]And I said, and they had been talking about Holbrooke,
[57:15]and I said, well, what did Holbrooke think?
[57:19]They said, well, Holbrooke thinks it's a good idea.
[57:21]Holbrooke's supporting our position.
[57:23]And I said, well, then the Democratic Party will support it.
[57:25]Have that much influence?
[57:35]But I promise he will not have taken a position
[57:38]on the record that has any substantial chance
[57:41]of being opposed by whoever the Democratic presidential candidate was.
[57:44]So I don't want to live my life...
[57:51]He was in a way suppressed,
[57:54]kind of depressed when he was out of...
[57:57]He never really enjoyed being out of government, Holbrooke.
[58:01]No, it was all about getting back into it.
[58:04]It was all about getting back into government.
[58:08]People say, I have not...
[58:10]I've known him fairly well
[58:13]for the last two years or so,
[58:17]but I didn't know him before.
[58:19]People said that it took Kissinger
[58:23]a long time to come to terms with the fact...
[58:28]That he doesn't influence anymore.
[58:30]Well, that he wasn't going back into government.
[58:32]That for a long time he was organized around
[58:36]going back into government.
[58:38]And at a certain point,
[58:40]he decided to become...
[58:44]He decided to have a different kind of role.
[58:48]My challenge has been,
[58:59]I don't know whether you've found this,
[59:01]it sounds from the way you spoke like me,
[59:02]to make substantial amounts of money.
[59:21]Not money like Jeffrey and some of his friends,
[59:23]but money like...
[59:25]Money that was like a lot of money from my point of view.
[59:28]The challenge is,
[59:30]and it's actually not that hard to do things
[59:33]that are reasonably pleasant
[59:36]and kind of interesting.
[59:38]What is hard is doing things
[59:42]that cause you to have adrenaline.
[59:44]Cause you have?
[59:46]Adrenaline.
[59:47]Excitement, yeah.
[59:48]That are exciting, where you like...
[59:50]Yeah, yeah.
[59:51]Where you...
[59:52]It depends.
[59:54]It probably depends how deep you're going.
[59:57]In my last round in business,
[1:00:00]I have a friend who was very successful
[1:00:03]at the very beginning of the hype.
[1:00:10]And he asked me to work with him.
[1:00:12]And after several months,
[1:00:13]he told a common friend of us
[1:00:16]that Ehud is not hungry enough to...
[1:00:20]But I feel more hungry now than then.
[1:00:23]Because then I still thought
[1:00:25]that I might come back within several years.
[1:00:28]And now I don't have any problem
[1:00:32]with not going with...
[1:00:35]Finding something that should be fun
[1:00:38]and very profitable
[1:00:41]and fun at least some of the time.
[1:00:44]You know, in my experience,
[1:00:46]even politics was not always fun.
[1:00:48]Even science, you know.
[1:00:50]Before I choose to go to the military
[1:00:53]rather than to science,
[1:00:55]I spent a summer at the Weizmann Institute.
[1:01:00]I met yesterday
[1:01:02]a Nobel Prize laureate in astrophysics
[1:01:06]that worked together with a member of my class
[1:01:10]who is also an astrophysicist.
[1:01:13]And he told me that we worked together
[1:01:16]in the Weizmann Institute.
[1:01:19]So after this summer,
[1:01:21]he decided to stay in science.
[1:01:24]And I decided that
[1:01:27]we were working all the summer
[1:01:29]on photographs from bubble cells,
[1:01:34]you know, kind of hydrogen
[1:01:36]under heavy magnetic fields.
[1:01:38]The preliminary CERN operation
[1:01:42]about identifying the kind of behavior of particles.
[1:01:46]And I've seen...
[1:01:48]We were six labs working all over Europe and Israel
[1:01:52]on the same one million photographs.
[1:01:55]And after a year and a half,
[1:01:57]the professors sat down together,
[1:01:59]decided what to do.
[1:02:01]Young PhDs threw the greatest idea.
[1:02:03]The professor went to the congresses
[1:02:06]abroad to represent
[1:02:08]and so on.
[1:02:10]And I found the relation between
[1:02:12]the fascinating work
[1:02:14]in the last six weeks
[1:02:16]and the extremely boring
[1:02:18]looking of a picture after picture
[1:02:20]to see some abnormality
[1:02:22]in the behavior of all these
[1:02:24]bubble chambers.
[1:02:27]And I decided to go there.
[1:02:29]So somehow, I don't think that any
[1:02:32]probably...
[1:02:35]So nothing is fun or...
[1:02:38]The question is whether...
[1:02:40]The question is finding...
[1:02:43]Something that makes a change.
[1:02:45]Adrenaline.
[1:02:46]Adrenaline.
[1:02:47]Where you feel like it's...
[1:02:49]It's not just achievement.
[1:02:50]It's meaning.
[1:02:51]That there is some meaning.
[1:02:52]Something which is important to you.
[1:02:54]Some kind of meaning
[1:02:55]which depends on both
[1:02:57]what the thing is.
[1:02:59]Yeah.
[1:03:00]It's about something
[1:03:12]that goes beyond your body
[1:03:14]and beyond your time.
[1:03:16]Something important,
[1:03:17]really important.
[1:03:18]It's not complicated.
[1:03:19]Yeah.
[1:03:20]I don't think that there are many things.
[1:03:22]You are probably at an earlier age
[1:03:23]than all of us.
[1:03:25]Someone can gamble on some idea
[1:03:28]and bring something from scratch
[1:03:30]that had never been there
[1:03:32]and changed a certain part of the world.
[1:03:34]It's not for us.
[1:03:35]The most we can do
[1:03:37]is to use our capacity
[1:03:40]to integrate things
[1:03:42]and still to make judgments
[1:03:44]and to make good recommendations
[1:03:46]to back up what we say
[1:03:48]or layers deeper into certain areas
[1:03:52]and probably to find a way
[1:03:57]to join such efforts
[1:03:59]in a way that creates synergy
[1:04:01]between several countries.
[1:04:02]I think that the day last Saturday
[1:04:11]or the week before
[1:04:13]we were invited to Georgia
[1:04:29]or to Mongolia,
[1:04:31]Montenegro,
[1:04:32]Albania,
[1:04:34]Zagreb,
[1:04:35]Estonia,
[1:04:36]the very kind of
[1:04:48]not primordial
[1:04:49]but embryonic phases
[1:04:51]of normalizing a society
[1:04:53]or state
[1:04:54]facing huge challenges
[1:04:56]and having huge potentials
[1:04:59]in a way.
[1:05:01]And they don't know how to
[1:05:03]don't feel confident
[1:05:05]about how to move in the economy,
[1:05:07]how to move in finance,
[1:05:09]how to move in security,
[1:05:11]how to move in international relations,
[1:05:13]positions and such.
[1:05:19]Working on such projects
[1:05:20]could be fascinating
[1:05:22]because you see
[1:05:24]embryonic nations.
[1:05:27]Some of them had been
[1:05:28]born as nations.
[1:05:29]They have all
[1:05:30]had some identities.
[1:05:33]And they look,
[1:05:34]think that for you
[1:05:35]something that's
[1:05:36]long behind you
[1:05:38]is the great next challenge.
[1:05:41]I've been to Montenegro
[1:05:49]or Mongolia
[1:05:50]but I assume
[1:05:51]if you go to Mongolia
[1:05:52]it is nomadic.
[1:05:54]Most interesting thing
[1:05:57]I have heard about them
[1:05:58]participating
[1:05:59]in gathering
[1:06:00]by some NGO
[1:06:03]in Davos
[1:06:04]about micro-insurance.
[1:06:05]They want to copy
[1:06:06]the idea of micro-financing
[1:06:07]to work.
[1:06:08]They want to
[1:06:09]do micro-insurance.
[1:06:10]And someone told
[1:06:11]a story there
[1:06:12]that they went
[1:06:13]with micro-financing
[1:06:14]or micro-insurance
[1:06:15]against the weather
[1:06:16]to Mongolia.
[1:06:17]And they had to
[1:06:18]set a way
[1:06:19]how to calculate
[1:06:20]and pass
[1:06:21]a kind of
[1:06:22]equal judgment
[1:06:23]about
[1:06:24]what to pay
[1:06:25]how to create
[1:06:28]a parameter
[1:06:29]because you cannot
[1:06:30]go to Mongolia
[1:06:31]to take
[1:06:32]case by case.
[1:06:33]So it ended
[1:06:34]with one parameter
[1:06:35]was the size
[1:06:36]of the health
[1:06:37]that you own.
[1:06:38]That's the
[1:06:39]problem.
[1:06:40]Because you didn't
[1:06:41]they didn't
[1:06:42]get someone
[1:06:43]from the locals
[1:06:44]to work with them.
[1:06:45]It ended up
[1:06:46]that they set
[1:06:47]the counting
[1:06:48]station
[1:06:49]at some point
[1:06:50]in the landscape
[1:06:56]and many
[1:06:57]of the
[1:06:58]shepherds
[1:06:59]identified
[1:07:00]immediately
[1:07:01]without knowing
[1:07:02]anything about
[1:07:03]what you call it
[1:07:04]that that's a parameter
[1:07:05]and the earth
[1:07:06]were moving
[1:07:07]around
[1:07:08]they didn't
[1:07:09]put a stamp
[1:07:10]on any
[1:07:15]so
[1:07:25]accumulated
[1:07:26]to make
[1:07:27]you know
[1:07:28]you cannot
[1:07:29]you can't
[1:07:30]invent
[1:07:31]a vaccine
[1:07:32]against
[1:07:33]I know
[1:07:34]some remote
[1:07:35]parasite
[1:07:36]in Africa
[1:07:37]but in sub-Saharan Africa
[1:07:41]now you
[1:07:42]there is
[1:07:43]many
[1:07:44]many corrupt
[1:07:45]people
[1:07:46]it will take
[1:07:47]time
[1:07:48]for probably
[1:07:49]a generation
[1:07:50]down the stream
[1:07:51]they will keep
[1:07:52]robbing
[1:07:53]the nature
[1:07:54]associated
[1:07:55]by the elites
[1:07:56]but
[1:07:57]but they are
[1:08:05]still moving
[1:08:06]forward.
[1:08:07]The two areas
[1:08:08]I think these
[1:08:09]nations
[1:08:10]these beginning
[1:08:11]nation states
[1:08:12]whether Mongolia
[1:08:13]or parts of Africa
[1:08:14]or even Kazakhstan
[1:08:15]has a lot of money
[1:08:16]but they are not
[1:08:17]the sophistication
[1:08:18]is
[1:08:19]ten years back
[1:08:20]cellular service
[1:08:21]being
[1:08:22]sort of
[1:08:23]a prime example
[1:08:24]of not being
[1:08:25]burdened
[1:08:26]with copper
[1:08:27]in the ground
[1:08:28]and fiber
[1:08:29]so you can go right
[1:08:30]to cellular phone
[1:08:31]you have this
[1:08:32]leapfrog
[1:08:33]and I think
[1:08:34]you are both
[1:08:35]a little
[1:08:36]bit
[1:08:37]the two hottest
[1:08:38]areas
[1:08:39]every country
[1:08:40]wants to be
[1:08:41]now
[1:08:42]in the world
[1:08:43]of finance
[1:08:44]they are not
[1:08:45]really talking
[1:08:46]about manufacturing
[1:08:47]if you are a leader
[1:08:48]you are talking
[1:08:49]about food security
[1:08:50]you are not talking
[1:08:51]about a production
[1:08:52]line
[1:08:53]you want to
[1:08:54]explore natural
[1:08:55]resources
[1:08:56]but you want to
[1:08:57]exploit your
[1:08:58]natural resources
[1:08:59]for an economy
[1:09:00]and you
[1:09:01]want to have
[1:09:02]two things
[1:09:03]you want to
[1:09:04]have economy
[1:09:05]and you want to have money
[1:09:06]primary positions
[1:09:07]for the current time
[1:09:08]I don't know
[1:09:09]if it lasts more than
[1:09:10]5, 10 years
[1:09:11]maybe something
[1:09:12]else takes over
[1:09:14]you
[1:09:15]We are not interested
[1:09:15]in development
[1:09:16]for more than
[1:09:18]30 years
[1:09:19]for a number of
[1:09:20]times
[1:09:20]no, but
[1:09:21]security
[1:09:21]I think you need
[1:09:22]to think about
[1:09:23]how to break it down
[1:09:25]that's
[1:09:26]the
[1:09:27]I think
[1:09:28]going to be
[1:09:29]the hot button
[1:09:29]for the next
[1:09:30]two years
[1:09:30]Big time
[1:09:32]border security
[1:09:32]is less of an issue
[1:09:33]a lot of people
[1:09:35]can handle it
[1:09:35]but and the
[1:09:35]But national security is something, because in many of these countries they don't know how to approach on a national level the issue of security of a country in the backyard of Europe, like Montenegro or Albania or Estonia or Latvia, and on the other hand, a totally different situation, the security of Mongolia or Kazakhstan.
[1:10:01]They don't even have, they don't know what to do, so they do what they know. They issue bids and take some. And that's it. They don't build even national security in a proper way. The last guy who comes to them with some impressive ideas and good margins, they fall into the trap.
[1:10:23]But if you were advising Mongolia on security, again, I'm not sure, the general security, what is that?
[1:10:33]Yes.
[1:10:34]Where do you start? What's the first, step one through five is why?
[1:10:36]Well, from budget to what to do and what not to do, and how to do it effectively, and what could not be treated by any kind of security but by diplomacy. And probably even, you know, I met with the foreign minister of the National Security Advisor, and they insisted on sending a, they're good people, but they're so, so far behind. It's like coming to a seminar at the university about something.
[1:11:11]They have something. They are responsible for the country. They try to, but they never, never thought of how to, how to balance, how to approach this issue, how to make it, what's worth investing, what's not worth investing in, how to, how to make the major effort they are doing now with multinationals to balance their approach to, to mining, how to combine this with security, for example.
[1:11:44]Security of the, the mining fields and the security of, of the whole area and what to do with it. They are trying to find a way. They are reasonable people, but they afraid, afraid that some of the advice that they are given are motivated by great powers behind those who advise them.
[1:12:10]Of course, they don't know what to do with the economy and even what to do with the money they can get.
[1:12:18]How to, how to use the potential, what to do, how to develop what should be taken by the state, how to make the big companies participate in it, how you can leverage them to do it, how to make them, how to keep the edge of being the owner of the whole thing beyond the first signature on a, on a document. They, they are not, you know, it's not, not simply.
[1:12:43]You were saying before you came in that there are a lot of, that you think there are a lot of these people who really are very hungry for.
[1:12:54]Yeah.
[1:12:55]Advice, I think.
[1:12:56]I mean, you see it, right?
[1:12:58]I feel the same. I feel that if, that's, that's a, a hypothesis. I, I, I spoke to a friend of mine that became a friend of Jeff as well, a guy who works with, with Ban Ki-moon for one dollar per year named Terry Larsen. It's a Norwegian diplomat. His wife is Norwegian.
[1:13:17]Mm-hmm.
[1:13:18]He, he had some trouble, so he left the, the public services. His wife remained.
[1:13:24]Mm-hmm.
[1:13:24]And he travels all around the world on behalf of the, you know, assume for a moment that you and Jeff and myself and this Terry Larsen establish a consulting group that take on the basis of countries, sovereigns, to give them advice, strategic advice on macroeconomy, finance, security, and international relationships.
[1:13:56]And these all things for leaders, even democracy for, for government, but clearly for more kind of for autocratic leaders, it's a gestalt. They, they don't really see a difference. Everything touches, everything is.
[1:14:10]And if some group that has kind of can talk to each other quickly, intelligently, give them advice, it works money. And for some of them, you know, think of Kazakhstan can pay. In fact, they are paying.
[1:14:26]By now, they are paying for more than one, in more than one channel. They, they want second opinion, third opinion, third, third, and a special opinion on this and that. They pay quite a lot of money. They have this money for taking consult. Sometimes they see it as not just consulting. They, all, all, all these sovereigns, they think that if they will choose the right people, they get certain edge in probably nothing.
[1:14:57]Mm-hmm.
[1:14:58]Lobbying, not in active lobbying, but in helping them to find a way of navigating issues that they have with international bodies and with NGOs. And sometimes even to ask those advisors to find who could be the lobbyist. If they have to pass certain, I remember Nazarbayev came to me 10 years ago.
[1:15:19]Sure.
[1:15:20]Because he was, I thought he was frightened by some, some investigation. He was, went from, from the United States.
[1:15:28]I believe. About some behaviors of his government. Sometimes they need an access to the, access.
[1:15:42]You have to be careful. They're, they probably need access.
[1:15:55]Yeah, but they rely more on the advice from Israel than advice from America.
[1:15:59]Because Israel's problems are more like their problems.
[1:16:00]No, because Israel is small enough not to threaten.
[1:16:04]Yeah.
[1:16:05]Right.
[1:16:05]We are supposed to have good contacts all around the world.
[1:16:08]You know, when I took the Mongolians, they asked me, can you talk to Putin? I said, yes.
[1:16:13]Can I talk to him?
[1:16:14]It's important for them because there are certain, many antagonisms and, and if a Russian or an American, if a Russian would come to them, they would think that he works for Putin.
[1:16:29]If an American comes, they might find that they find themselves within a bigger gate at all.
[1:16:34]So we have.
[1:16:35]No, that's right.
[1:16:36]We have certain kinds of people being connected in the world and not threatening anyone.
[1:16:40]And you have a, you have a sense of having been given your.
[1:16:53]You have a sense of having been extraordinarily successful, effective, given its location and its size.
[1:17:02]Yeah.
[1:17:03]And so, you know.
[1:17:04]And a human capital.
[1:17:06]I'm not sure whether you have the same human capital in Mongolia, but they know it as well.
[1:17:10]No, but I think if you're, if you're a Mongolia or a, or a Kazakhstan, you know, I'd like to have a generation ahead.
[1:17:19]Yeah.
[1:17:19]Like Israel had.
[1:17:20]Yeah.
[1:17:20]Which is a natural way to think.
[1:17:24]Whereas.
[1:17:25]I'd like to have a generation like the United States.
[1:17:28]It's different.
[1:17:29]Yeah.
[1:17:30]They're just going to be in a different kind of.
[1:17:32]No, we are also a source of unique cutting edge knowledge, Israel, in some issues which are extremely important for the water processing.
[1:17:46]And both this and anything reuse of water and even the effectiveness of use of it in agriculture and semi-aeroid and aeroid.
[1:17:55]We have the most sophisticated agriculture on earth.
[1:18:01]The real point is that all players are Israeli, so they sometimes take, I don't know, two kilograms of newly manufactured, genetically manufactured seeds, bring them to Cuba or some Angola or wherever, and within five years we have competitors.
[1:18:19]So we have to excel in running ahead of the wave in agriculture.
[1:18:25]And we're doing it in agriculture, and you know better than me that there's a need to probably double the food production within a generation or so without kind of causing.
[1:18:39]So you are, you and I are going to tell them what seeds they want to use.
[1:18:44]Yeah, yeah, not, but what the direction could be.
[1:18:47]You have to do the people who are going to tell them that.
[1:18:49]Yeah, yeah.
[1:18:49]And there is, Jeffrey can tell us, it could be.
[1:18:55]There is a certain kind of practical economic benefit from being able to be the one who point to them genuine, sincere players in certain area.
[1:19:11]But you know who are you going to recommend in advance.
[1:19:15]You can leverage this kind of being, having the trust of a government.
[1:19:23]Like a bit modern.
[1:19:25]Montenegro, Latvia, of course the Danish government doesn't need it.
[1:19:30]But all these governments which are not yet self-confident enough, they feel that they need it.
[1:19:36]They need experienced people who doesn't lose a sleep at night if they hear of major problems in some country, they face that issue.
[1:19:50]You're saying it's not India, but it is Mongolia.
[1:19:52]But it is Mongolia.
[1:19:55]And maybe it's Sri Lanka, and maybe it's...
[1:19:58]Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[1:19:59]Yeah, many people.
[1:20:00]Out of the 194 nations, I can easily think that some 50 need it and we cannot work in 50 places.
[1:20:08]And some of them are quite, potentially quite rich or with other potentials to create money that enables them to pay for it.
[1:20:17]And they feel it or realize it.
[1:20:20]There's no sense for us to go to lost places.
[1:20:24]Well, England who has...
[1:20:25]Has natural resources.
[1:20:26]Yeah.
[1:20:27]Because...
[1:20:28]Has a way of quasi-state control.
[1:20:34]Yeah.
[1:20:35]That's not quite the government.
[1:20:36]Yeah.
[1:20:37]It's not like the government's kind of taking you...
[1:20:38]You're not...
[1:20:39]That's presumably where the money comes from.
[1:20:40]I do not exclude the possibility that in five years' time, you will end up with decentralization of decision-making.
[1:20:41]China and India, for different reasons, through different mechanisms, where you might find
[1:20:49]a way of decentralization of decision-making.
[1:20:50]Yeah.
[1:20:51]Yeah.
[1:20:52]Yeah.
[1:20:53]Yeah.
[1:20:54]Yeah.
[1:20:55]Yeah.
[1:20:56]Yeah.
[1:20:57]Yeah.
[1:20:58]Yeah.
[1:20:59]Yeah.
[1:21:00]Yeah.
[1:21:01]Yeah.
[1:21:03]Yeah.
[1:21:04]Yeah.
[1:21:05]Yeah.
[1:21:06]Yeah.
[1:21:07]Yeah.
[1:21:08]Yeah.
[1:21:13]Yeah.
[1:21:15]Yeah.
[1:21:16]Yeah.
[1:21:17]Yeah.
[1:21:18]Yeah.
[1:21:19]Yeah.
[1:21:20]Yeah.
[1:21:23]Yeah.
[1:21:24]Yeah.
[1:21:25]Yeah.
[1:21:26]Yeah.
[1:21:27]Yeah.
[1:21:28]Yeah.
[1:21:29]Yeah.
[1:21:30]Yeah.
[1:21:31]Yeah.
[1:21:32]Yeah.
[1:21:33]Yeah.
[1:21:34]Yeah.
[1:21:35]Yeah.
[1:21:36]Yeah.
[1:21:37]Yeah.
[1:21:38]Yeah.
[1:21:39]Yeah.
[1:21:40]Yeah.
[1:21:41]Yeah.
[1:21:42]Yeah.
[1:21:43]Yeah.
[1:21:44]And if we can copy 400 times Singapore, we are the real success of the world.
[1:21:54]When you meet with Chinese mayors right now, first of all, some of them have population
[1:22:00]under control, which are medium-sized to big, they are bigger than most of the European
[1:22:06]countries, like Austria, Switzerland and Denmark together.
[1:22:14]And they get more.
[1:22:15]That's part of the way of the Chinese to face the threat of the result of a social crisis.
[1:22:27]The whole transition boat's ill for them, it's not going to be a smooth way for them.
[1:22:35]And in order to face it, they try to anticipate and to find generic solutions, not to keep
[1:22:44]us through processes that will...
[1:22:46]...smooth the heating of the problems.
[1:22:53]And India, for different reasons, they come from another direction, but they also, you
[1:22:58]might find that in Indian states, they will get more, they have the governor who is supposed
[1:23:13]to intervene on behalf of one thing, but it's only if things get wrong in an explicit
[1:23:21]way, illegal way.
[1:23:22]Big scale.
[1:23:22]It's like a mandal that comes to the surface.
[1:23:27]So I think that there is a lot of work, it could be fascinating because it's really,
[1:23:31]in a way, it's using what you accumulate all along your life to help real people face
[1:23:36]real problems that you are acquainted with, and they don't feel as confident, they draw
[1:23:44]both kind of confidence.
[1:23:48]It's a very good thing to do.
[1:23:54]I think once you, sorry, hang out the shingle.
[1:23:57]They find you.
[1:23:58]They don't know where to go.
[1:24:01]They sort of, who do I talk to?
[1:24:04]I said by default they talk to me, but it's by default.
[1:24:06]They read in the Economist the articles about them in order to try to find a hint about
[1:24:13]how they...
[1:24:15]It's wild.
[1:24:16]Now, you have to be sensitive.
[1:24:18]There's places like the Congo, that have tremendous natural resources, but it's a zero.
[1:24:24]You have to stay away, because it's impossible.
[1:24:26]Rwanda, there's African countries have...
[1:24:28]different. So it's different than Mongolia. I met Kagame. What's his name? The big basketball
[1:24:34]player. President of Rwanda. And I believe that Tony Blair is giving him a lot of advice.
[1:24:44]But Kagame, I don't know about Kagame. Kagame is, it feels like if you're the president
[1:24:51]of Rwanda, you should sometimes be in Rwanda. Judging by how often I meet him, going to one
[1:24:59]conference or another, he couldn't be spending very much time in Rwanda. Yeah, but it's a
[1:25:07]way to avoid the stress of being all the time in Rwanda. But it's like Rwanda has gas, but
[1:25:16]it's in the middle of the lake. Are there places in Africa? Which lake? I think Africa
[1:25:20]is in the middle of the lake.
[1:25:22]Kagame said there's a gigantic gas field, but just like there's a place in...
[1:25:27]Well, what's the problem? The Caspian Sea also is in the gas.
[1:25:32]You can't, because it's inside. You can't get it out of the country.
[1:25:35]Why?
[1:25:36]There's no infrastructure.
[1:25:39]It's not... Well, in Africa, putting in even trains, half the time they steal. You put
[1:25:45]down the rails, you go to sleep, and the rails are gone because someone took it.
[1:25:50]Is there any place in Africa that you think has a prospect?
[1:25:53]No.
[1:25:54]No?
[1:25:54]Yes.
[1:25:55]You think no?
[1:25:57]Angola, maybe. I don't know who... No. I think it's... Let me be...
[1:26:01]South Africa is going to be a major...
[1:26:07]Yes, but I think...
[1:26:08]South Africa?
[1:26:10]Yeah.
[1:26:12]I think the concept is over some 30 years, maybe. But I think there are easier... There's
[1:26:17]low-hanging fruit, like Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is a perfect example. There's $80 billion
[1:26:23]in sovereign wealth. They would like to be part of the Western world. They would like
[1:26:27]to be part of the Western world. It's the big things to be seen that have human rights.
[1:26:32]They want to be part of the financial system. Part of it is that they don't want to be embarrassed.
[1:26:39]That's clear. So when they want to talk to someone, they want to know there's discretion
[1:26:44]and good advice, so they can at least take credit for their decisions. But... So those
[1:26:49]are easier places. So in Africa, maybe, but very hard work.
[1:26:53]What about Africa?
[1:26:57]South America. Venezuela at the moment. Venezuela.
[1:26:59]What about Afghanistan?
[1:26:59]moment
[1:27:00]Chavez
[1:27:01]dies
[1:27:01]I had
[1:27:02]a whole
[1:27:02]bunch
[1:27:02]of the
[1:27:02]oil guys
[1:27:03]here
[1:27:03]monstrous
[1:27:06]proven
[1:27:06]reserves
[1:27:07]lots of
[1:27:08]things to
[1:27:09]do
[1:27:09]once
[1:27:11]Chavez
[1:27:11]goes
[1:27:12]the
[1:27:13]financial
[1:27:13]system
[1:27:13]devalued
[1:27:15]their
[1:27:15]currency
[1:27:15]last
[1:27:16]week
[1:27:16]they had
[1:27:19]three exchange
[1:27:20]rates
[1:27:20]now they
[1:27:20]only have
[1:27:21]two
[1:27:21]exchange
[1:27:21]rates
[1:27:22]but they
[1:27:22]don't
[1:27:22]have
[1:27:23]an
[1:27:23]economy
[1:27:23]that's
[1:27:27]the only
[1:27:27]thing
[1:27:28]one of
[1:27:28]the best
[1:27:28]conductors
[1:27:29]on earth
[1:27:29]the
[1:27:31]young
[1:27:31]Venezuelan
[1:27:32]so I
[1:27:35]think there's
[1:27:36]plenty of
[1:27:37]places
[1:27:37]China is
[1:27:37]a different
[1:27:38]thing
[1:27:38]because
[1:27:39]there's
[1:27:39]a
[1:27:39]cultural
[1:27:40]you have
[1:27:41]a better
[1:27:41]you both
[1:27:42]have
[1:27:42]a great
[1:27:43]issue
[1:27:43]in China
[1:27:44]because
[1:27:44]it gives
[1:27:46]them
[1:27:46]face
[1:27:47]to talk
[1:27:49]to you
[1:27:49]or to
[1:27:50]you
[1:27:50]so that
[1:27:51]they feel
[1:27:51]and if
[1:27:52]you went
[1:27:53]to see
[1:27:53]them for
[1:27:53]a day
[1:27:54]and you
[1:27:54]left
[1:27:54]you never
[1:27:55]want to
[1:27:55]stay
[1:27:55]there
[1:27:56]because
[1:27:57]if you
[1:27:57]go
[1:27:57]and you
[1:27:57]leave
[1:27:58]they can
[1:27:59]tell all
[1:27:59]their
[1:27:59]friends
[1:27:59]that you
[1:28:00]can't
[1:28:00]just
[1:28:00]to see
[1:28:00]them
[1:28:01]so that's
[1:28:01]a
[1:28:02]same
[1:28:03]thing
[1:28:04]just
[1:28:05]tricky
[1:28:06]I met
[1:28:07]Aliyev
[1:28:08]yes
[1:28:08]and I
[1:28:10]remember
[1:28:10]his father
[1:28:11]his father
[1:28:12]was a
[1:28:13]communist
[1:28:14]kind of
[1:28:15]KGB
[1:28:17]kind of
[1:28:18]representative
[1:28:19]in a place
[1:28:19]head of
[1:28:20]the communist
[1:28:20]party
[1:28:21]and now
[1:28:24]the son
[1:28:24]took over
[1:28:25]when the
[1:28:25]father
[1:28:25]died
[1:28:26]it's a
[1:28:26]it's a
[1:28:27]kind of
[1:28:27]run like
[1:28:28]a family
[1:28:28]business
[1:28:29]I met
[1:28:29]their
[1:28:30]father
[1:28:31]the minister
[1:28:33]of foreign
[1:28:33]affairs
[1:28:34]it ended
[1:28:35]up that
[1:28:35]he's
[1:28:36]not just
[1:28:36]most
[1:28:37]preferred
[1:28:38]colleague
[1:28:38]but also
[1:28:39]the best
[1:28:40]friend
[1:28:40]he has
[1:28:40]in Israel
[1:28:41]is Avigdor
[1:28:42]Lieberman
[1:28:42]but
[1:28:43]Israelis
[1:28:46]are making
[1:28:47]a lot
[1:28:47]of
[1:28:47]business
[1:28:48]I think
[1:28:53]once you
[1:28:53]said
[1:28:53]once
[1:28:55]you
[1:28:55]people
[1:28:55]understood
[1:28:56]that you're
[1:28:56]really in
[1:28:56]business
[1:28:57]you have
[1:28:58]to choose
[1:28:58]which is
[1:28:59]the right
[1:28:59]place
[1:29:00]and you
[1:29:02]can charge
[1:29:02]a lot
[1:29:03]of money
[1:29:03]I think
[1:29:05]there is
[1:29:05]an opportunity
[1:29:06]and if
[1:29:07]you don't
[1:29:07]create a
[1:29:08]huge
[1:29:08]overhead
[1:29:09]do not
[1:29:11]pretend
[1:29:12]to run
[1:29:13]operations
[1:29:13]to secure
[1:29:15]oil fields
[1:29:16]you point
[1:29:17]them to
[1:29:18]companies
[1:29:19]there are
[1:29:19]many in
[1:29:21]Israel
[1:29:21]some in
[1:29:23]America
[1:29:23]some would
[1:29:24]not like
[1:29:25]to have
[1:29:26]an American
[1:29:26]company running
[1:29:27]but something
[1:29:27]from a
[1:29:28]smaller
[1:29:28]company
[1:29:29]what have
[1:29:31]you found
[1:29:32]most interesting
[1:29:32]you've been
[1:29:33]out now
[1:29:34]for how
[1:29:34]long
[1:29:34]a year
[1:29:35]I've
[1:29:36]been out
[1:29:36]two years
[1:29:38]and I
[1:29:42]would say
[1:29:43]two most
[1:29:43]interesting
[1:29:44]things
[1:29:45]have been
[1:29:46]being on
[1:29:48]the boards
[1:29:49]of a
[1:29:49]couple of
[1:29:50]high tech
[1:29:50]you just
[1:29:56]have a
[1:29:57]sense
[1:29:57]that you're
[1:29:57]creating
[1:30:01]something new
[1:30:03]and they're
[1:30:04]young and
[1:30:04]they're
[1:30:05]vigorous
[1:30:05]and there's
[1:30:06]a sense
[1:30:07]of energy
[1:30:09]and being
[1:30:09]an adult
[1:30:10]add something
[1:30:14]and so
[1:30:15]I've enjoyed
[1:30:16]I do a
[1:30:26]couple hedge
[1:30:27]I advise
[1:30:27]a couple
[1:30:28]hedge funds
[1:30:29]and that's
[1:30:29]interesting
[1:30:30]well if
[1:31:02]opportunities
[1:31:03]materialize
[1:31:04]without the
[1:31:07]shingle
[1:31:07]it's a
[1:31:09]country doctor
[1:31:10]but
[1:31:10]has a new
[1:31:13]meaning
[1:31:13]now
[1:31:14]access on
[1:31:15]country
[1:31:15]yeah but
[1:31:18]access into
[1:31:19]country
[1:31:19]can in
[1:31:20]certain
[1:31:21]countries
[1:31:21]create a
[1:31:23]leverage
[1:31:23]to make
[1:31:24]a lot
[1:31:24]of money
[1:31:24]for long
[1:31:25]time
[1:31:26]sometimes
[1:31:26]you can
[1:31:26]just
[1:31:28]work
[1:31:28]together
[1:31:29]leading
[1:31:30]major
[1:31:31]kind of
[1:31:31]mining
[1:31:33]company
[1:31:33]with
[1:31:33]leading
[1:31:34]place
[1:31:35]to mine
[1:31:35]whatever
[1:31:36]they look
[1:31:36]for
[1:31:37]and just
[1:31:37]agree with
[1:31:38]them on
[1:31:38]a
[1:31:39]extremely
[1:31:40]small
[1:31:41]percentage
[1:31:43]or
[1:31:44]promillage
[1:31:46]or whatever
[1:31:46]they are
[1:31:47]doing
[1:31:47]but as
[1:31:48]long as
[1:31:49]the operation
[1:31:49]is there
[1:31:49]you might
[1:31:50]end up
[1:31:51]living
[1:31:52]quiet
[1:31:53]also
[1:31:54]has its
[1:31:55]value
[1:31:56]but has
[1:31:58]something
[1:31:58]in the
[1:31:58]past
[1:31:58]two years
[1:31:59]gotten you
[1:32:00]excited
[1:32:00]in the
[1:32:01]adrenaline
[1:32:01]yeah I
[1:32:02]said
[1:32:03]work with
[1:32:04]the
[1:32:04]young
[1:32:04]people
[1:32:04]that's
[1:32:05]going to
[1:32:05]say
[1:32:05]is
[1:32:05]square
[1:32:07]been the
[1:32:08]most
[1:32:08]thing
[1:32:08]square
[1:32:09]has
[1:32:09]probably
[1:32:09]been the
[1:32:10]thing
[1:32:10]that you
[1:32:11]look forward
[1:32:11]to going
[1:32:12]out
[1:32:12]I look
[1:32:12]forward
[1:32:13]I look
[1:32:13]forward
[1:32:13]to
[1:32:13]going
[1:32:16]out
[1:32:17]there
[1:32:17]but it's
[1:32:17]not
[1:32:18]that I
[1:32:19]I really
[1:32:20]do look
[1:32:21]forward
[1:32:21]to it
[1:32:37]it's not
[1:32:37]quite at
[1:32:37]the level
[1:32:38]of I'm
[1:32:38]thinking
[1:32:38]about it
[1:32:39]every night
[1:32:39]before I
[1:32:39]go to
[1:32:40]sleep
[1:32:40]in part
[1:32:42]because
[1:32:43]you know
[1:32:45]a lot
[1:32:45]of what
[1:32:45]it is
[1:32:45]it's like
[1:32:46]technology
[1:32:47]and all
[1:32:48]that
[1:32:48]it's not
[1:32:49]what I
[1:32:49]do
[1:32:49]think of
[1:32:50]it
[1:32:50]it's one
[1:32:50]of your
[1:32:51]edges
[1:32:51]as well
[1:32:52]at the
[1:32:52]same
[1:32:52]time
[1:32:53]because
[1:32:54]part of
[1:32:56]what they
[1:32:57]needed
[1:32:57]someone
[1:32:57]who's
[1:32:58]experienced
[1:32:58]enough
[1:32:59]to look
[1:32:59]at it
[1:32:59]and be
[1:33:02]able to
[1:33:03]judge
[1:33:03]or avoid
[1:33:05]a kind
[1:33:05]of
[1:33:05]over
[1:33:06]enthusiasm
[1:33:06]that
[1:33:07]sometimes
[1:33:07]blinds
[1:33:08]them to
[1:33:09]where they
[1:33:09]are heading
[1:33:10]or what
[1:33:11]could be
[1:33:11]the
[1:33:12]consequence
[1:33:12]that's
[1:33:13]where you
[1:33:13]can
[1:33:13]end
[1:33:14]because
[1:33:14]you have
[1:33:15]much
[1:33:15]more
[1:33:15]judgment
[1:33:17]wisdom
[1:33:18]and I'm
[1:33:20]able to
[1:33:20]say
[1:33:21]that
[1:33:21]I'm
[1:33:21]able to
[1:33:21]you know
[1:33:22]and I'm
[1:33:23]able to
[1:33:24]say
[1:33:24]like you
[1:33:25]are
[1:33:26]I'm
[1:33:26]able to
[1:33:27]say to
[1:33:27]anybody
[1:33:28]that doesn't
[1:33:30]seem quite
[1:33:30]right
[1:33:31]when
[1:33:32]lots of
[1:33:33]people
[1:33:33]spend their
[1:33:35]lives
[1:33:35]surrounded
[1:33:36]by people
[1:33:36]who will
[1:33:37]never
[1:33:37]say to
[1:33:37]them
[1:33:37]that's
[1:33:38]not
[1:33:39]that's
[1:33:43]that's
[1:33:44]not
[1:33:45]that's
[1:33:48]so I
[1:33:49]like the
[1:33:50]things
[1:33:50]Israel is a
[1:33:59]fascinating
[1:34:00]place
[1:34:00]there are
[1:34:05]a lot of
[1:34:06]people
[1:34:06]very
[1:34:07]well
[1:34:07]there are
[1:34:08]a lot
[1:34:08]of
[1:34:08]young
[1:34:09]people
[1:34:09]who
[1:34:09]are
[1:34:10]very
[1:34:10]well
[1:34:10]it's
[1:34:11]very
[1:34:12]typical
[1:34:12]to find
[1:34:13]the
[1:34:13]best
[1:34:14]two
[1:34:15]kind
[1:34:16]of
[1:34:17]desolants
[1:34:18]of the
[1:34:18]population
[1:34:20]coming out
[1:34:20]of the
[1:34:21]amphus
[1:34:21]some
[1:34:21]are
[1:34:21]spending
[1:34:22]their time
[1:34:22]in the
[1:34:23]amphus
[1:34:23]in
[1:34:24]activities
[1:34:25]which are
[1:34:26]basically
[1:34:26]R&D
[1:34:27]or
[1:34:28]kind of
[1:34:28]startup
[1:34:29]kind of
[1:34:30]operations
[1:34:31]without
[1:34:32]economic
[1:34:32]side
[1:34:33]to it
[1:34:33]and they
[1:34:34]come
[1:34:35]they
[1:34:35]jump
[1:34:36]energetically
[1:34:37]are you
[1:34:44]going to
[1:34:44]live in
[1:34:44]Israel
[1:34:44]or are
[1:34:45]you going
[1:34:45]to live
[1:34:45]in New
[1:34:46]York
[1:34:46]I
[1:34:47]basically
[1:34:48]live in
[1:34:49]Israel
[1:34:49]but I
[1:34:50]am
[1:34:50]extremely
[1:34:51]fascinated
[1:34:52]about
[1:34:52]going
[1:34:53]out
[1:34:53]and see
[1:34:53]the world
[1:34:54]and to
[1:34:56]be in
[1:34:56]many places
[1:34:56]so I
[1:34:57]don't
[1:34:57]feel any
[1:34:58]kind of
[1:35:00]problem
[1:35:00]of spending
[1:35:01]most of
[1:35:02]my time
[1:35:03]out of
[1:35:03]the
[1:35:04]country
[1:35:04]that was
[1:35:05]a fascinating
[1:35:05]but you're
[1:35:06]going to
[1:35:07]your home
[1:35:07]you're going
[1:35:08]to make
[1:35:08]your home
[1:35:10]intelligent
[1:35:11]rather than
[1:35:12]one year
[1:35:12]in New
[1:35:13]York
[1:35:13]yeah
[1:35:13]you can
[1:35:13]fly
[1:35:14]I don't
[1:35:17]have a
[1:35:18]problem
[1:35:18]if I
[1:35:18]had to
[1:35:18]spend
[1:35:19]a full
[1:35:20]two months
[1:35:21]in New
[1:35:22]York
[1:35:22]before you
[1:35:31]go
[1:35:31]what's
[1:35:32]your sense
[1:35:32]of the
[1:35:32]economy
[1:35:32]what do
[1:35:35]you think
[1:35:35]is going
[1:35:35]on now
[1:35:36]I think
[1:35:39]the best
[1:35:40]guess is
[1:35:41]we're
[1:35:47]turning
[1:35:47]a bit
[1:35:48]I think
[1:35:48]because
[1:35:49]Jeffrey
[1:35:49]and I
[1:35:49]were
[1:35:50]discussing
[1:35:50]before
[1:35:53]I think
[1:35:54]a wall
[1:36:01]of money
[1:36:02]coming in
[1:36:03]just a
[1:36:03]gigantic
[1:36:04]amount
[1:36:04]of money
[1:36:05]yeah
[1:36:05]a wall
[1:36:06]of money
[1:36:06]stock
[1:36:07]market
[1:36:08]you know
[1:36:09]I had
[1:36:10]been
[1:36:10]thinking
[1:36:14]to myself
[1:36:14]two months
[1:36:16]ago
[1:36:16]the
[1:36:18]interest
[1:36:19]rate
[1:36:19]stocks
[1:36:25]are pretty
[1:36:26]cheap
[1:36:26]now sure
[1:36:34]and so
[1:36:35]there should
[1:36:35]be a lot
[1:36:35]of deal
[1:36:36]activity
[1:36:36]and now
[1:36:38]sure enough
[1:36:39]in the
[1:36:40]last month
[1:36:40]there's
[1:36:42]there's
[1:36:43]Dow
[1:36:43]but there
[1:36:44]is not
[1:36:45]typical
[1:36:45]somehow
[1:36:46]he's doing
[1:36:46]it himself
[1:36:47]with some
[1:36:48]who
[1:36:49]Dell
[1:36:50]Dell is not
[1:36:51]typical
[1:36:51]but Heinz
[1:36:53]is typical
[1:36:53]Heinz
[1:36:54]the
[1:36:55]Ketchup
[1:36:56]Keri is
[1:36:57]correct
[1:36:58]yeah
[1:36:58]and you
[1:36:59]saw it
[1:36:59]just happen
[1:37:00]she sold
[1:37:01]she's
[1:37:02]I don't
[1:37:02]think she
[1:37:03]ever
[1:37:03]I don't
[1:37:03]think she's
[1:37:04]pretty much
[1:37:04]out of it
[1:37:05]but the
[1:37:05]Warren Buffett
[1:37:07]yeah
[1:37:07]and
[1:37:08]a Brazilian
[1:37:09]beer guy
[1:37:10]yeah
[1:37:11]just
[1:37:12]just
[1:37:12]taking it
[1:37:13]just paying
[1:37:14]putting
[1:37:14]20
[1:37:15]paying
[1:37:15]$23 million
[1:37:16]to buy it
[1:37:20]they're all
[1:37:22]getting bought
[1:37:22]up
[1:37:22]how could
[1:37:23]you not
[1:37:23]do it
[1:37:23]combined
[1:37:24]when interest
[1:37:24]rates are
[1:37:25]this low
[1:37:26]how can
[1:37:27]you not
[1:37:27]go into
[1:37:27]the
[1:37:27]takeover
[1:37:28]business
[1:37:28]I mean
[1:37:29]not
[1:37:29]me
[1:37:30]and I
[1:37:32]think
[1:37:32]it's
[1:37:32]starting
[1:37:32]to happen
[1:37:33]so I
[1:37:34]think
[1:37:34]that
[1:37:34]that
[1:37:35]plus
[1:37:35]the fact
[1:37:36]that
[1:37:36]housing
[1:37:37]is
[1:37:38]turning
[1:37:40]plus
[1:37:41]the fact
[1:37:42]that
[1:37:43]while
[1:37:43]everybody's
[1:37:44]hysterical
[1:37:45]about the
[1:37:45]dysfunctionality
[1:37:46]of our
[1:37:46]government
[1:37:47]the truth
[1:37:48]is we're
[1:37:48]a pretty
[1:37:49]dynamic
[1:37:49]society
[1:37:51]and our
[1:37:52]government
[1:37:52]doesn't
[1:37:53]usually
[1:37:53]do insane
[1:37:54]things
[1:37:54]I think
[1:37:55]it's
[1:37:56]time to
[1:37:58]be optimistic
[1:37:59]about us
[1:38:00]I think
[1:38:00]it's a
[1:38:00]pretty
[1:38:01]bad
[1:38:01]time
[1:38:02]because
[1:38:08]in
[1:38:08]September
[1:38:09]there is
[1:38:09]election
[1:38:10]in
[1:38:11]Germany
[1:38:11]I
[1:38:11]talked
[1:38:12]to
[1:38:12]Schauble
[1:38:13]and
[1:38:13]Demesier
[1:38:13]Demesier
[1:38:14]is my
[1:38:14]colleague
[1:38:14]but he
[1:38:15]was advisor
[1:38:15]to the
[1:38:16]chancellor
[1:38:16]for a
[1:38:16]long
[1:38:16]time
[1:38:17]Schauble
[1:38:17]I know
[1:38:18]him
[1:38:18]from
[1:38:18]before
[1:38:20]he was
[1:38:21]shot
[1:38:21]before
[1:38:24]he was
[1:38:25]shot
[1:38:26]he's now
[1:38:26]in a
[1:38:26]wheelchair
[1:38:27]I still
[1:38:27]remember
[1:38:28]him
[1:38:28]walking
[1:38:28]on his
[1:38:29]feet
[1:38:30]I got
[1:38:34]the impression
[1:38:34]that
[1:38:35]Germany
[1:38:36]cannot do
[1:38:37]anything
[1:38:37]politically
[1:38:37]speaking
[1:38:38]they cannot
[1:38:39]do anything
[1:38:39]by throwing
[1:38:40]some
[1:38:41]short
[1:38:42]and
[1:38:42]immediate
[1:38:43]small
[1:38:44]pieces
[1:38:44]to
[1:38:45]the
[1:38:45]Spanish
[1:38:47]or
[1:38:47]Italian
[1:38:48]or
[1:38:48]Greek
[1:38:49]in order
[1:38:49]not to
[1:38:50]break
[1:38:50]the whole
[1:38:51]thing
[1:38:51]before
[1:38:52]but
[1:38:52]after
[1:38:53]they can
[1:38:55]and
[1:38:56]basically
[1:38:56]they will
[1:38:57]because
[1:38:57]they are
[1:39:00]not doing
[1:39:00]a favor
[1:39:01]for the
[1:39:01]rest of
[1:39:01]Europe
[1:39:02]they
[1:39:02]don't
[1:39:03]it's
[1:39:03]something
[1:39:04]people
[1:39:04]are still
[1:39:05]getting
[1:39:05]old
[1:39:05]they
[1:39:07]still
[1:39:07]don't
[1:39:07]want
[1:39:07]to
[1:39:08]work
[1:39:08]very
[1:39:08]hard
[1:39:08]and
[1:39:10]it's
[1:39:10]not
[1:39:10]very
[1:39:10]innovative
[1:39:11]so
[1:39:12]I
[1:39:12]think
[1:39:13]that
[1:39:13]Southern
[1:39:15]Europe
[1:39:16]is going
[1:39:16]to
[1:39:17]become
[1:39:17]like
[1:39:17]Southern
[1:39:18]Europe
[1:39:18]to
[1:39:19]Europe
[1:39:20]will
[1:39:20]be
[1:39:21]like
[1:39:21]Southern
[1:39:21]Italy
[1:39:22]to
[1:39:22]Italy
[1:39:22]poor
[1:39:24]not
[1:39:26]very
[1:39:26]competitive
[1:39:26]lots
[1:39:28]of
[1:39:28]people
[1:39:28]not
[1:39:29]working
[1:39:29]dependent
[1:39:31]and
[1:39:32]but
[1:39:32]staying
[1:39:33]and
[1:39:34]so
[1:39:34]I think
[1:39:35]I now
[1:39:36]think
[1:39:37]a lot
[1:39:39]about
[1:39:39]Greece
[1:39:40]but I
[1:39:40]think
[1:39:40]we
[1:39:41]will
[1:39:42]stay
[1:39:43]together
[1:39:43]in a
[1:39:50]place
[1:39:51]it
[1:39:57]means
[1:39:57]that
[1:39:57]ultimately
[1:39:58]culture
[1:39:58]matters
[1:39:59]the
[1:39:59]Mediterranean
[1:39:59]culture
[1:40:00]is
[1:40:00]inferior
[1:40:01]to
[1:40:01]the
[1:40:01]kind
[1:40:02]of
[1:40:02]Scandinavia
[1:40:03]the
[1:40:03]kind
[1:40:04]of
[1:40:04]post
[1:40:06]post
[1:40:06]reformation
[1:40:08]kind
[1:40:08]of
[1:40:09]answer
[1:40:10]maybe
[1:40:11]the
[1:40:11]cultures
[1:40:11]vary
[1:40:12]and
[1:40:12]they
[1:40:12]work
[1:40:13]well
[1:40:13]for
[1:40:14]50
[1:40:14]year
[1:40:14]periods
[1:40:15]and
[1:40:15]theirs
[1:40:16]isn't
[1:40:16]but
[1:40:16]I
[1:40:17]don't
[1:40:18]know
[1:40:18]that
[1:40:18]Japan
[1:40:18]you know
[1:40:27]the last
[1:40:28]thing
[1:40:28]they
[1:40:28]invented
[1:40:28]that
[1:40:32]was a
[1:40:32]long
[1:40:33]time
[1:40:35]ago
[1:40:36]and
[1:40:37]so
[1:40:37]I
[1:40:37]think
[1:40:39]that
[1:40:40]they're
[1:40:40]probably
[1:40:40]going to
[1:40:40]try to
[1:40:41]pump
[1:40:41]up
[1:40:41]and
[1:40:42]print
[1:40:42]a lot
[1:40:42]of
[1:40:42]money
[1:40:42]this
[1:40:44]Abbey
[1:40:45]serious
[1:40:46]guy
[1:40:46]because
[1:40:47]last
[1:40:47]time
[1:40:48]that he
[1:40:48]was
[1:40:48]in power
[1:40:49]he was
[1:40:50]not
[1:40:50]serious
[1:40:50]I don't
[1:40:51]think
[1:40:51]he's
[1:40:51]I hear
[1:40:54]and read
[1:40:55]I don't
[1:40:56]think
[1:40:57]he is
[1:40:57]all the
[1:41:01]hedge funds
[1:41:02]if there
[1:41:23]is a
[1:41:26]Paulson
[1:41:27]trade
[1:41:31]if
[1:41:34]there's
[1:41:34]a
[1:41:34]the one
[1:41:35]from
[1:41:35]the
[1:41:36]mortgage
[1:41:36]back
[1:41:37]security
[1:41:37]go up
[1:41:39]and then
[1:41:39]fell down
[1:41:40]right
[1:41:40]if there's
[1:41:41]a
[1:41:41]if there's
[1:41:43]a trade
[1:41:43]like that
[1:41:44]in the
[1:41:44]next
[1:41:45]three
[1:41:45]inflation
[1:42:01]in which
[1:42:02]case
[1:42:02]they'll
[1:42:03]stop
[1:42:04]having
[1:42:04]long
[1:42:05]runs
[1:42:05]at
[1:42:06]70
[1:42:06]basis
[1:42:06]points
[1:42:07]maybe
[1:42:07]they'll
[1:42:08]decide
[1:42:08]that they
[1:42:09]can't
[1:42:09]really
[1:42:09]fix
[1:42:09]their
[1:42:10]problems
[1:42:10]at
[1:42:10]all
[1:42:10]in
[1:42:11]which
[1:42:11]case
[1:42:11]people
[1:42:12]will
[1:42:12]start
[1:42:12]to
[1:42:12]worry
[1:42:12]about
[1:42:13]whether
[1:42:13]they're
[1:42:13]going
[1:42:13]to
[1:42:13]get
[1:42:13]repaid
[1:42:14]in
[1:42:15]which
[1:42:15]case
[1:42:15]they
[1:42:16]won't
[1:42:16]be
[1:42:16]at
[1:42:16]70
[1:42:17]basis
[1:42:17]points
[1:42:18]so
[1:42:18]it
[1:42:19]seems
[1:42:19]to
[1:42:19]me
[1:42:20]that
[1:42:20]they're
[1:42:21]likely
[1:42:21]what
[1:42:21]is
[1:42:21]70
[1:42:22]basis
[1:42:22]points
[1:42:22]the
[1:42:22]spread
[1:42:23]of
[1:42:23]Japanese
[1:42:24]that's
[1:42:24]the
[1:42:24]law
[1:42:25]over
[1:42:25]10
[1:42:25]years
[1:42:26]the
[1:42:26]interest
[1:42:26]rate
[1:42:27]is
[1:42:27]70
[1:42:27]basis
[1:42:27]points
[1:42:28]so
[1:42:30]but
[1:42:31]it's
[1:42:31]been
[1:42:31]that
[1:42:31]way
[1:42:31]for
[1:42:31]a
[1:42:32]while
[1:42:32]to
[1:42:32]be
[1:42:33]fair
[1:42:33]but
[1:42:34]they
[1:42:34]may
[1:42:35]it's
[1:42:35]been
[1:42:35]very
[1:42:36]long
[1:42:36]but
[1:42:36]they
[1:42:37]are
[1:42:38]somehow
[1:42:38]people
[1:42:39]would
[1:42:39]have
[1:42:39]said
[1:42:39]the
[1:42:39]same
[1:42:39]thing
[1:42:40]the
[1:42:40]widow
[1:42:41]makers
[1:42:42]what
[1:42:42]they
[1:42:42]call
[1:42:42]the
[1:42:42]trade
[1:42:43]correct
[1:42:43]but
[1:42:45]they
[1:42:45]already
[1:42:45]have
[1:42:46]for
[1:42:46]a
[1:42:46]long
[1:42:46]time
[1:42:46]they
[1:42:46]have
[1:42:46]some
[1:42:47]200%
[1:42:48]of
[1:42:48]the
[1:42:49]debt
[1:42:49]so
[1:42:49]they
[1:42:50]keep
[1:42:51]pouring
[1:42:52]money
[1:42:53]into
[1:42:54]the
[1:42:54]system
[1:42:54]so
[1:42:55]that's
[1:42:55]why
[1:42:55]I
[1:42:55]said
[1:42:56]that
[1:42:56]if
[1:42:57]there
[1:42:57]is
[1:42:57]a
[1:42:58]success
[1:42:58]it
[1:42:59]will
[1:42:59]be
[1:42:59]that
[1:43:00]and
[1:43:00]you
[1:43:01]know
[1:43:01]when
[1:43:01]the
[1:43:02]last
[1:43:02]time
[1:43:03]they
[1:43:03]were
[1:43:03]crazy
[1:43:03]there
[1:43:04]were
[1:43:04]more
[1:43:04]people
[1:43:05]who
[1:43:05]thought
[1:43:05]their
[1:43:05]stock
[1:43:06]market
[1:43:06]was
[1:43:06]nuts
[1:43:07]when
[1:43:08]it
[1:43:08]was
[1:43:08]at
[1:43:08]25,000
[1:43:09]than
[1:43:10]there
[1:43:10]were
[1:43:10]who
[1:43:11]thought
[1:43:11]it
[1:43:11]was
[1:43:11]nuts
[1:43:11]at
[1:43:11]35,000
[1:43:15]because
[1:43:15]by the
[1:43:16]time
[1:43:16]it
[1:43:16]got
[1:43:16]to
[1:43:16]35,000
[1:43:17]everybody
[1:43:18]had
[1:43:18]taken
[1:43:19]their
[1:43:19]crack
[1:43:19]at
[1:43:19]thinking
[1:43:20]that
[1:43:20]it
[1:43:20]was
[1:43:20]nuts
[1:43:21]and
[1:43:22]been
[1:43:23]wiped
[1:43:23]out
[1:43:23]and
[1:43:24]so
[1:43:24]they
[1:43:24]thought
[1:43:24]they
[1:43:24]didn't
[1:43:25]understand
[1:43:25]and
[1:43:25]maybe
[1:43:26]it
[1:43:26]would
[1:43:26]keep
[1:43:26]going
[1:43:27]and
[1:43:28]that's
[1:43:28]a little
[1:43:28]bit
[1:43:28]how
[1:43:28]the
[1:43:29]Japanese
[1:43:29]bond
[1:43:29]feels
[1:43:30]to me
[1:43:30]right
[1:43:30]now
[1:43:31]we
[1:43:32]have
[1:43:33]more
[1:43:33]to
[1:43:33]worry
[1:43:34]about
[1:43:34]inflation
[1:43:35]as a
[1:43:36]result
[1:43:36]of
[1:43:36]all
[1:43:36]this
[1:43:37]supply
[1:43:38]of
[1:43:38]wider
[1:43:39]money
[1:43:39]or
[1:43:40]deflation
[1:43:43]what's
[1:43:43]more
[1:43:44]worry
[1:43:45]for
[1:43:46]you
[1:43:46]the
[1:43:48]last
[1:43:48]four
[1:43:49]years
[1:43:50]I've
[1:43:50]been
[1:43:50]very
[1:43:51]confident
[1:43:52]that
[1:43:52]it
[1:43:52]was
[1:43:52]deep
[1:43:53]time
[1:43:57]passes
[1:43:57]I
[1:43:59]move
[1:44:00]my
[1:44:00]view
[1:44:00]I
[1:44:01]am
[1:44:01]still
[1:44:02]more
[1:44:02]worried
[1:44:03]about
[1:44:03]slow
[1:44:04]down
[1:44:05]than
[1:44:05]I
[1:44:06]am
[1:44:06]about
[1:44:07]inflation
[1:44:08]I
[1:44:08]don't
[1:44:12]think
[1:44:12]countries
[1:44:13]don't
[1:44:13]get
[1:44:13]big
[1:44:13]increase
[1:44:14]in
[1:44:16]labor
[1:44:16]my
[1:44:30]friend
[1:44:31]Stan
[1:44:31]Fisher
[1:44:31]did
[1:44:31]a
[1:44:31]good
[1:44:31]job
[1:44:32]in
[1:44:32]Israel
[1:44:32]to
[1:44:34]most
[1:44:35]kind
[1:44:35]of
[1:44:35]observers
[1:44:36]very
[1:44:37]popular
[1:44:37]he is
[1:44:37]extremely
[1:44:38]popular
[1:44:38]people
[1:44:39]believe
[1:44:40]that
[1:44:40]he
[1:44:40]solved
[1:44:41]it
[1:44:41]saved
[1:44:43]us
[1:44:43]from
[1:44:43]major
[1:44:44]disaster
[1:44:45]and
[1:44:46]he is
[1:44:46]highly
[1:44:47]appreciated
[1:44:47]in
[1:44:47]the
[1:44:48]country
[1:44:48]but
[1:44:49]there
[1:44:49]are
[1:44:50]here
[1:44:50]and
[1:44:50]there
[1:44:50]few
[1:44:51]quiet
[1:44:52]players
[1:44:56]in
[1:44:56]the
[1:44:57]financial
[1:44:58]markets
[1:44:59]who
[1:44:59]think
[1:45:00]differently
[1:45:00]that
[1:45:01]he
[1:45:01]did
[1:45:02]accumulate
[1:45:02]too
[1:45:03]much
[1:45:03]he
[1:45:03]did
[1:45:03]not
[1:45:04]invest
[1:45:04]in
[1:45:04]the
[1:45:04]right
[1:45:05]timing
[1:45:05]goal
[1:45:05]the
[1:45:05]whole
[1:45:06]running
[1:45:07]of
[1:45:07]the
[1:45:07]because
[1:45:08]he
[1:45:08]raised
[1:45:09]the
[1:45:09]reserve
[1:45:10]from
[1:45:10]20
[1:45:11]billion
[1:45:11]to
[1:45:11]80
[1:45:12]billion
[1:45:12]and
[1:45:12]he
[1:45:12]made
[1:45:13]a
[1:45:13]major
[1:45:13]move
[1:45:14]and
[1:45:15]they
[1:45:16]complained
[1:45:16]that
[1:45:17]probably
[1:45:17]he
[1:45:18]could
[1:45:18]have
[1:45:18]done
[1:45:18]better
[1:45:20]if
[1:45:20]he
[1:45:21]would
[1:45:21]have
[1:45:21]invested
[1:45:22]more
[1:45:22]in
[1:45:23]gold
[1:45:24]or
[1:45:25]more
[1:45:28]capital
[1:45:28]to
[1:45:30]run
[1:45:30]his
[1:45:31]money
[1:45:34]somehow
[1:45:35]even
[1:45:35]without
[1:45:36]gambling
[1:45:36]and
[1:45:37]some
[1:45:38]even
[1:45:38]argue
[1:45:42]that
[1:45:43]probably
[1:45:45]did
[1:45:46]identify
[1:45:47]too
[1:45:49]late
[1:45:50]and
[1:45:50]that
[1:45:51]what the
[1:45:52]swiss
[1:45:53]has done
[1:45:54]with the
[1:45:55]with their
[1:45:56]weight
[1:45:57]could be
[1:45:58]done with
[1:45:59]the
[1:46:00]shekel
[1:46:01]so he
[1:46:02]for some time
[1:46:03]he appeared
[1:46:04]as if he
[1:46:05]believes that
[1:46:06]you cannot
[1:46:07]fight the
[1:46:08]market when
[1:46:09]in reality
[1:46:10]you can
[1:46:11]fight it on
[1:46:12]one side
[1:46:13]if you are
[1:46:14]so popular
[1:46:15]everyone wants
[1:46:16]to buy
[1:46:17]so there
[1:46:18]is certain
[1:46:19]critics among
[1:46:20]the people
[1:46:22]who think
[1:46:23]that
[1:46:24]he is
[1:46:25]going to
[1:46:26]live in
[1:46:27]a short
[1:46:28]time
[1:46:29]yeah
[1:46:30]that was
[1:46:31]my impression
[1:46:32]that he had
[1:46:35]done very
[1:46:36]good
[1:46:37]that he had
[1:46:38]been very
[1:46:39]successful
[1:46:40]but that's
[1:46:41]the thing
[1:46:42]i like
[1:46:43]him very
[1:46:44]much
[1:46:45]he's
[1:46:46]sincere
[1:46:47]respectful
[1:46:48]he
[1:46:49]seems
[1:46:50]slow
[1:46:51]and there's
[1:46:52]a phrase
[1:46:53]a safe
[1:46:54]pair of
[1:46:55]hands
[1:46:56]safe
[1:47:04]a safe
[1:47:24]pair of
[1:47:25]hand
[1:47:26]hands
[1:47:27]you know
[1:47:34]the thing
[1:47:34]about
[1:47:35]negative
[1:47:37]yeah
[1:47:38]right
[1:47:39]and everybody
[1:47:40]ought to
[1:47:41]be
[1:47:42]yeah
[1:47:43]but that
[1:47:44]that's
[1:47:45]the the
[1:47:46]scars
[1:47:47]from the
[1:47:48]recent
[1:47:48]events
[1:47:49]people lose
[1:47:49]their
[1:47:50]it's like
[1:47:51]a hair
[1:47:52]Immediately they are frozen.
[1:47:55]Human nature.
[1:48:05]Spend some time with Ehud.
[1:48:06]I'll see you tomorrow morning at 10.
[1:48:07]I'm picking you up at 10 in the morning.
[1:48:09]You're picking me up at 10 in the morning.
[1:48:10]I will see you then.
[1:48:11]Excellent.
[1:48:12]Ehud, this was very good.
[1:48:14]It was very good to see you.
[1:48:15]I hope we'll have a chance.
[1:48:16]One of these places or one of these...
[1:48:20]He's going to be a free man.
[1:48:22]One of these things.
[1:48:23]In three weeks, I hope.
[1:48:26]I contemplate setting a departure ceremony and set a time, a day, and a time.
[1:48:32]Because I'm afraid that under certain tricky developments, there will be no new government.
[1:48:40]I will go to another election and that's...
[1:48:44]Theoretically, it's possible.
[1:48:45]I don't want to find myself stuck.
[1:48:48]Great to see you.
[1:48:49]Very nice to see you.
[1:50:43]Am I close?
[1:50:44]Yeah.
[1:50:45]Yeah.
[1:50:46]Good for you.
[1:50:47]Thanks again.
[1:50:48]I had a favorite difference...
[1:50:52]I didn't think to set it.
[1:50:53]I thought it capacity, that this is not going to work.
[1:50:58]So if one to pick ...
[1:51:10]You're very good at this.
[1:51:15]I appreciate...
[1:51:16]It's a nuance.
[1:51:17].
[1:51:18]No, I will...
[1:51:19]I think...
[1:51:22]How do you manage more than one diagnosis with no one to do it with?
[1:51:26]I mean, you wouldn't, you don't need to worry. You don't need to be scared.
[1:51:35]But that's the...
[1:51:37]That's the point. Because I know that there's so many things.
[1:51:40]And, you know, everything is going to be fine.
[1:51:46]Except when I say, you know, I agree. I'm certainly not lying.
[1:51:54]I mean, put back to the company.
[1:52:03]Yeah, but some of them, they...
[1:52:09]They need to talk to me. They've got their...
[1:52:35]Want more tea, sir?
[1:52:55]Yeah, more tea, if you can.
[1:52:57]Yes, sir.
[1:54:37]What do you think? He has the appetite to go...
[1:54:46]Yes.
[1:54:47]Yeah?
[1:54:48]Yes.
[1:54:49]Okay, that's good. I believe that's a very good name.
[1:54:52]That's one of the ideas that I kind of exchanged with...
[1:54:57]Terry.
[1:54:58]Terry, yeah.
[1:54:59]I think it could be really interesting if we find a way to work together
[1:55:05]to make probably a pilot on one or two of them.
[1:55:08]Yes. Look, he's...
[1:55:10]Larry is not liked by any...
[1:55:12]What he said...
[1:55:14]I said that, you know, you were going to come.
[1:55:17]To dinner.
[1:55:18]To dinner.
[1:55:19]And he said, did you read the article on foreign affairs?
[1:55:21]Did...
[1:55:22]Ah, yeah.
[1:55:23]And he read it?
[1:55:24]Yes.
[1:55:25]He said to me, did you read the article on foreign affairs?
[1:55:27]Yeah.
[1:55:28]And what did he say about it?
[1:55:29]I said, yeah.
[1:55:30]He said, well, what did you think?
[1:55:31]I said, I didn't like it very much.
[1:55:32]I didn't like it, yeah.
[1:55:33]He said, well, I...
[1:55:35]He said, I come at it from a different angle.
[1:55:37]He said, I didn't like it, but I identify because they say everything they say about him, they say about me.
[1:55:43]Yeah.
[1:55:44]Yeah.
[1:55:45]Yeah.
[1:55:51]Yeah.
[1:55:52]Let's go through...
[1:55:53]I want to...
[1:55:54]I thought we would start earlier, but I...
[1:55:56]It's okay.
[1:55:57]I have time.
[1:55:58]I hope we have enough...
[1:55:59]I have patience.
[1:56:00]I have patience and I have time.
[1:56:02]Yeah.
[1:56:03]I want to go with you through a variety of opportunities that were kind of proposed,
[1:56:09]different levels of concreteness.
[1:56:12]Okay.
[1:56:13]But that I find that probably with...
[1:56:18]I want to hear your advice before I try to focus...
[1:56:21]Okay.
[1:56:22]...on an order of priority and probably to have your judgment on some of them and what it means.
[1:56:29]Now, unlike...
[1:56:30]Probably unlike Larry, I can find fascinating adrenaline and satisfaction in just making money.
[1:56:42]I knew that.
[1:56:43]I already knew that.
[1:56:44]I will spend it.
[1:56:45]That I will have the real adrenaline.
[1:56:46]It's not for making, for spending it.
[1:56:47]Yes.
[1:56:48]It's not for making, for spending it.
[1:56:49]Yes.
[1:56:50]I was spending it.
[1:56:51]Spending it cleverly on...
[1:56:52]Okay.
[1:56:53]I want to start with what I brought you here.
[1:56:58]I brought you here documents of a German...
[1:57:02]A German takeover.
[1:57:05]A German supposedly sophistry takeover group that I was one of the founders of.
[1:57:14]And according to the real achievements that they have.
[1:57:15]And according to the...
[1:57:16]Well, I think it's interesting.
[1:57:17]I think it's interesting.
[1:57:18]achievements that they had according to this record are those that they have
[1:57:24]made when I was still there. I don't know what they have done since then. Probably they
[1:57:28]won some court trial about some deal that they were involved in and they were
[1:57:38]bypassed at the last moment. Probably the deal never materialized. It had to be with
[1:57:46]a sub-unit of Deutsche Telekom that operates here. T-Mobile was taken by ATT.
[1:57:53]But in a way, the way to bypass them was by acting much
[1:58:01]more aggressively and by this aggressive action, they raised the attention of the
[1:58:07]authorities and regulators here. And somehow it was blocked. But they kind of had a
[1:58:13]complaint. Probably they had some
[1:58:15]cases.
[1:58:16]30 million or whatever from this complaint,
[1:58:19]and they run themselves the office since then.
[1:58:23]Probably there are some areas that I don't know of,
[1:58:25]but basically I see something which reminds me very much
[1:58:28]what we had in mind six years ago
[1:58:32]when I left them as I entered this.
[1:58:37]Read it and try to get,
[1:58:39]ask me whatever question I know the people I know.
[1:58:44]Who's the principal?
[1:58:45]Who's the main person?
[1:58:47]Originally it was four people.
[1:58:51]One named Philip Scholler.
[1:58:55]You will find all the details about him.
[1:58:56]Who do you like the most?
[1:58:58]Who do you have the best?
[1:58:59]No, no.
[1:58:59]I have with the two,
[1:59:01]we were five people.
[1:59:04]Philip Scholler,
[1:59:06]Christoph Bulford,
[1:59:07]who's a lawyer,
[1:59:09]another entrepreneurial kind of guy,
[1:59:11]Hubertus Hoffman.
[1:59:12]And,
[1:59:13]and,
[1:59:16]and,
[1:59:17]German origin Canadian guy.
[1:59:21]And at the moment do they have any money?
[1:59:23]Named,
[1:59:24]I will remind you in a moment.
[1:59:35]Okay.
[1:59:36]And we were,
[1:59:38]basically four of us,
[1:59:39]we established a German corporation,
[1:59:42]registers in the islands,
[1:59:44]BVI.
[1:59:47]You will read it.
[1:59:48]I will, no, no.
[1:59:49]You will find it.
[1:59:50]Basically the idea was the following.
[1:59:52]There is suppressed value
[1:59:53]within the DAX leading companies
[1:59:55]from the biggest to the smallest,
[1:59:57]leading DAX company.
[2:00:02]Because of three elements.
[2:00:04]One is the nature of governance of companies in Germany,
[2:00:09]with these double,
[2:00:12]two layers of a board,
[2:00:14]which slows down dramatically
[2:00:18]and spreads the decision power and the ability to take decisions.
[2:00:24]Secondly, the deep involvement of unions that they are participating,
[2:00:29]which is a very important element of the board and you can practically cannot move without them.
[2:00:35]And then passive shareholders.
[2:00:38]There is no,
[2:00:38]nothing like ICANN or whatever here.
[2:00:42]Extremely passive.
[2:00:45]Now,
[2:00:45]I don't know this is suppressed.
[2:00:48]You take any company,
[2:00:50]take BASF and compare it to DuPont or whatever here.
[2:00:55]Similar sized company,
[2:00:57]you will end up German company
[2:00:59]and half the take any insurance big company compared to Warren Buffett,
[2:01:16]which basically is an insurance company,
[2:01:18]finance other activities and you will end up that much lower.
[2:01:24]But even if you compare them to any successful North American companies and do the same with every,
[2:01:30]in every aspect and that's in fact,
[2:01:36]that's the case.
[2:01:37]They are much lower.
[2:01:38]Uh,
[2:01:38]uh,
[2:01:39]yes.
[2:01:40]Now,
[2:01:41]in order to do something with it,
[2:01:43]you have to change it.
[2:01:46]The idea is that you can easily take by the rules.
[2:01:49]Uh,
[2:01:49]if you get 10% of a,
[2:01:51]the stock of a company,
[2:01:53]you become practically the owner of the company.
[2:01:56]You can call a special,
[2:01:59]uh,
[2:01:59]general assembly of the whole shareholding and,
[2:02:03]uh,
[2:02:03]you can nominate,
[2:02:04]uh,
[2:02:05]you know,
[2:02:06]when the actor,
[2:02:07]you can change the nature of,
[2:02:08]it usually doesn't work before.
[2:02:12]If you're a German,
[2:02:13]it's,
[2:02:14]they look at you quite in quite bizarre way.
[2:02:18]Uh,
[2:02:19]if you're non-German,
[2:02:20]they will go.
[2:02:23]So the idea is to establish a,
[2:02:25]a German.
[2:02:27]Yeah.
[2:02:28]And this,
[2:02:28]a group,
[2:02:29]you will see,
[2:02:29]they have a group of people about my age.
[2:02:32]We are former heads of leading ducks companies.
[2:02:36]They know the company from within.
[2:02:38]They know the people who are,
[2:02:39]who are there,
[2:02:40]the relationship and everything.
[2:02:43]Uh,
[2:02:43]they have a lot of informal,
[2:02:46]internal information about what happens,
[2:02:49]including when we,
[2:02:50]I remember fighting with,
[2:02:52]uh,
[2:02:52]Volkswagen,
[2:02:53]Volkswagen before,
[2:02:54]right over.
[2:02:56]And with the Deutsche Telekom,
[2:02:58]when we were continuously acquainted with what really happens in any board meeting afterwards and so on.
[2:03:06]So to establish a Luxembourg or whatever,
[2:03:09]uh,
[2:03:09]uh,
[2:03:10]operation for any given,
[2:03:13]uh,
[2:03:13]project.
[2:03:14]And let's say if,
[2:03:15]uh,
[2:03:16]you typically might need,
[2:03:18]I don't know,
[2:03:20]one billion equity,
[2:03:21]another one billion in debt to,
[2:03:24]to create 10% of,
[2:03:25]uh,
[2:03:26]of a company that,
[2:03:27]uh,
[2:03:27]the market cap of 20 billion and start to operate.
[2:03:30]You will need more if it's a bigger company,
[2:03:33]but usually it's relatively small market.
[2:03:37]Think of,
[2:03:38]uh,
[2:03:38]I know,
[2:03:39]I understand all of it.
[2:03:40]Munich Re.
[2:03:42]I understand.
[2:03:42]Very huge potential of money like Berkshire Hathaway,
[2:03:47]but probably making 4 billion per year.
[2:03:49]Right.
[2:03:50]On 200 billion.
[2:03:54]So by just making not very good insurer,
[2:03:58]but good manager of assets,
[2:04:01]you can do more.
[2:04:02]That's the idea.
[2:04:03]Now they want to find players or think that whether we can find players who are ready and capable.
[2:04:11]After they understand they can be behind this SPV,
[2:04:16]probably having convertible kind of a bond to the SPV.
[2:04:21]Let me stop you for a second because it's much more important in these initial,
[2:04:26]when you initially describe these things is the structure of where and whether SPVs or it's in Luxembourg BVI.
[2:04:35]It doesn't mean anything.
[2:04:37]The only thing you need to focus on now,
[2:04:41]when you're talking about these types of businesses are the numbers.
[2:04:45]Yeah.
[2:04:46]So that the numbers are the numbers are the numbers.
[2:04:49]Nothing else is going to make a difference.
[2:04:51]So you need to tell me five things.
[2:04:53]A,
[2:04:54]what's their perform,
[2:04:55]have they performed before and what's their returns?
[2:04:58]Because structurally it's different and not,
[2:05:00]oh,
[2:05:00]I'll look,
[2:05:01]but.
[2:05:01]You will find two examples,
[2:05:03]which are successful ones.
[2:05:04]Both of them happened when I was there.
[2:05:07]And I will add to that.
[2:05:09]If you have to send it to ask me,
[2:05:11]whether they're extremely successful till now,
[2:05:14]my answer is no.
[2:05:15]Okay.
[2:05:16]Otherwise they will,
[2:05:18]they're rich people,
[2:05:19]all of them,
[2:05:20]but not.
[2:05:20]What do they want from you?
[2:05:22]So I want to know numbers and what do they want from you?
[2:05:25]So that,
[2:05:25]so those are my two biggest goals.
[2:05:30]Numbers you will find.
[2:05:31]Right.
[2:05:32]The idea to take anything from a small,
[2:05:36]small DAX company could be taken over by putting 300,
[2:05:42]probably 300,
[2:05:43]300 in equity and 300 in debt.
[2:05:45]You have 600 million to take over things.
[2:05:49]The very big ones might need 3.5 billion in debt and 3.5 billion in equity,
[2:05:56]which enables you to take even a dime.
[2:06:01]In fact,
[2:06:01]the only one who did what GCG has as a vision is Ferdinand Pirch,
[2:06:11]when he took over.
[2:06:12]Right.
[2:06:12]He ran ahead of us.
[2:06:14]We had been here trying to convince several big private equity companies
[2:06:21]and hedge funds to do exactly what he had done.
[2:06:26]Okay.
[2:06:27]They were much slower,
[2:06:28]but his several generations there have already had a strong hold within the company.
[2:06:35]Right.
[2:06:36]Probably identified the opportunity,
[2:06:38]but he extracted clearly a real jump that still holds several years,
[2:06:42]probably five,
[2:06:43]six years after all.
[2:06:44]Basically,
[2:06:46]think what Pirch have done with Volkswagen and you will get a sense of what they plan.
[2:06:54]Right.
[2:06:54]Whether they did it or not,
[2:06:56]that's probably the reason why they want me.
[2:06:59]They want me to be able to somehow help them,
[2:07:03]to convince somehow for whom these amounts of money are not frightening.
[2:07:08]Right.
[2:07:09]If we convince,
[2:07:10]for example,
[2:07:11]the sovereign fund,
[2:07:12]the sovereign fund of be it Singapore or the Emirates or China to be with us
[2:07:22]or even a major Russian company to be with us,
[2:07:28]the GCG provides the front in Luxembourg and they are behind it.
[2:07:34]Because if some sovereign fund will take over a major Dutch company,
[2:07:37]it could end up politically.
[2:07:40]They want you to go to the sovereign funds.
[2:07:42]Yeah.
[2:07:42]To help them to convince the sovereign fund or extremely rich individual.
[2:07:49]Right.
[2:07:49]Like Tom Pritzker, for example.
[2:07:52]I just wrote down Tom's name because I talked to him this morning.
[2:07:56]Probably a guy that can,
[2:07:58]if he wants,
[2:07:59]to take over a major.
[2:08:01]I understand.
[2:08:02]But what is your real advantage for them?
[2:08:06]The fact that you know rich people and the fact that you have open access.
[2:08:09]I can open the door.
[2:08:11]I can access.
[2:08:12]I can be there.
[2:08:13]I cannot be at the core of the...
[2:08:20]I understand.
[2:08:20]You're the door opener.
[2:08:21]Yeah.
[2:08:22]In a way.
[2:08:22]And yeah, someone that they respect,
[2:08:24]it gives them certain respect,
[2:08:26]as you said about this blue...
[2:08:29]Right.
[2:08:30]So basically,
[2:08:35]and they know me and they trust me because we work together.
[2:08:38]I help them to go to Bruce Kovner and to, you know...
[2:08:45]You know, Black and to others and start to see.
[2:08:49]Right.
[2:08:52]For example, they work very hard to convince the Russians and they failed.
[2:08:57]Until now.
[2:08:57]And I think that probably I can convince, you know, one of the guys that...
[2:09:01]Think of two of the guys that they get now with BP 10K.
[2:09:06]All together they got some four of them, so they got some 28 billion.
[2:09:10]They have to put it...
[2:09:13]You know, the story with Germany is quite clear.
[2:09:16]It's the best performing operation on the...
[2:09:19]Manufacturing floor.
[2:09:20]And a very slow, not creative on the top.
[2:09:26]Right.
[2:09:26]But Germany's always traded a discount to the States.
[2:09:30]I'm not sure the comparison of German company valuations and earning price
[2:09:34]marks is an issue with taxes and unions.
[2:09:36]You can't fire people there so easily.
[2:09:39]But my concern is that they want you to open the door.
[2:09:43]I understand.
[2:09:45]It's not real.
[2:09:46]What I...
[2:09:47]It's not really your expertise.
[2:09:49]Yeah, but they're going to make a lot of money.
[2:09:51]I understand.
[2:09:53]You see, your capabilities, I think you're going to...
[2:09:54]What they basically say is...
[2:09:56]You're going to make a lot of money.
[2:09:57]See...
[2:09:58]I'm not going?
[2:09:59]You're going to make a lot of money.
[2:10:00]You're definitely going to make a lot of money.
[2:10:02]I'm not going?
[2:10:03]You will.
[2:10:04]You're definitely going to make a lot of...
[2:10:05]You will make money.
[2:10:07]The question is how you...
[2:10:09]Which place you do it with.
[2:10:10]Okay, look.
[2:10:11]I have...
[2:10:12]I will show...
[2:10:12]After you read it, I will show the concrete proposal that they sent to me.
[2:10:17]They gave an example.
[2:10:18]They say...
[2:10:18]Okay, we are ready.
[2:10:19]We are going to get, when we put the money...
[2:10:24]Assume for a month you succeed in bringing us someone who can put $1 billion on equity for some project.
[2:10:32]Right.
[2:10:33]Big enough.
[2:10:34]Think, for example, the China investment company.
[2:10:37]They run probably $400 billion.
[2:10:39]They can afford doing it, if it's affordable.
[2:10:42]Yes.
[2:10:43]Okay, assume that we convince them.
[2:10:45]They say, okay, with the debt it's $2 billion.
[2:10:47]I understand.
[2:10:48]Out of the $2 billion, we got 3%.
[2:10:50]I understand.
[2:10:50]We are ready to give you $12 million.
[2:10:53]Right.
[2:10:53]Out of the $60 million we get immediately, and then smaller amounts down the...
[2:10:59]Right.
[2:11:00]So what Tom asked me this morning, and he said he told you at Davos,
[2:11:06]was he thought you should make a list of his work, not...
[2:11:11]Was...
[2:11:12]Metrics, as I told you.
[2:11:14]Yes.
[2:11:14]But who has IOUs to you?
[2:11:17]Yes.
[2:11:17]Is that, who's the...
[2:11:19]Out of the people in the past who you think you're close to, he said that he really wanted
[2:11:25]you to make this list of, this person owes me a favor, this person owes me his life,
[2:11:34]this person owes me his job, this person owes me...
[2:11:37]Yeah, okay.
[2:11:39]And so you got to work it backwards and say, here is my...
[2:11:44]Instead of thinking about what the opportunities are first, because right now you're focused
[2:11:48]on opportunities.
[2:11:49]Yeah.
[2:11:50]I need you to focus on your personal balance sheet in terms of competences.
[2:11:59]What's your real strengths?
[2:12:01]What's the...
[2:12:02]One of the liabilities is you're 71 years old, so you can't be in a business that takes
[2:12:05]20 years to make money.
[2:12:06]Yeah.
[2:12:07]We have to make money in the next three years.
[2:12:11]So people, competence, things.
[2:12:14]So for...
[2:12:15]I talked to Ian yesterday.
[2:12:16]I asked him to come.
[2:12:17]Yeah.
[2:12:18]He flew in from London.
[2:12:19]He's crazy.
[2:12:20]He's crazy.
[2:12:21]What was his impression from the...
[2:12:22]He's...
[2:12:23]So, same thing.
[2:12:24]He...
[2:12:25]Because he's very connected to Samsung.
[2:12:26]Very.
[2:12:27]Who?
[2:12:28]Samsung.
[2:12:29]Korean Samsung.
[2:12:30]Samsung.
[2:12:31]Yes.
[2:12:32]Yeah.
[2:12:33]Very.
[2:12:34]Yeah.
[2:12:35]They pay him $3 million a year.
[2:12:36]Just to make PR?
[2:12:37]Yes.
[2:12:38]He has 10 companies like that now.
[2:12:39]Okay.
[2:12:40]So he said there's this company called Lookout.
[2:12:41]He said he mentioned it to you.
[2:12:42]Lookout.
[2:12:43]Lookout.
[2:12:44]Lookout.
[2:12:45]Lookout.
[2:12:46]Lookout.
[2:12:47]Lookout.
[2:12:48]Lookout.
[2:12:49]Lookout.
[2:12:50]Lookout.
[2:12:51]Lookout.
[2:12:52]Lookout.
[2:12:53]Lookout.
[2:12:54]Lookout.
[2:12:55]Yeah.
[2:12:56]Lookout.
[2:12:57]They pay you a couple of million dollars to be on the board...
[2:12:58]Cool.
[2:12:59]Thank you.
[2:13:00]... candy too.
[2:13:01]L-o-o-k-a-n-u-t.
[2:13:09]Yeah.
[2:13:10]Yeah.
[2:13:11]You talk about...
[2:13:12]Yep.
[2:13:13]He thinks they'll pay you a couple million dollars to be on the board.
[2:13:14]Yeah.
[2:13:15]That would be good.
[2:13:16]I understood.
[2:13:17]He thought there was two cyber companies.
[2:13:18]Lookout and even though...
[2:13:19]I know Peter...
[2:13:20]I've never met Peter Thiel and everybody says he jumps around and acts securing...
[2:13:21]He looks...
[2:13:22]Like he's on drugs.
[2:13:23]Smoking, yeah.
[2:13:24]Yeah.
[2:13:25]company called Palantir, P-A-L-L-E-N, T-I-E-R, Palantir is Peter Thiel's company. And look
[2:13:35]at it. Palantir, P-A-L-A-N-T-I-E-R? Yes. Why Thiel? T-H-I-E-L-L-Y. T-H-I-E-L. L-L-Y. No,
[2:13:53]T-H-I-E-L-L. So he thought that Peter would put you on the board of Palantir. Peter Thiel
[2:14:03]is one of the best. I've never met him. He's going to come here next week. So I wanted
[2:14:08]to talk to him after I talk to you. He and Andreessen, it's called Andreessen Horowitz.
[2:14:18]Andreessen Horowitz, that's what, they pay Larry a million dollars a year. Just to advise
[2:14:24]them. Andreessen and? A-N-D-R-E-E-S-O-N, Andreessen and Horowitz.
[2:14:35]And Horowitz? H-O-R-O, Horowitz. What are they? It's a lobbyist. What are they? They
[2:14:45]are the biggest venture capital people in Silicon Valley. Bigger than Sequoia or Kleiner
[2:14:53]Perkins? These are the new Kleiner Perkins. Everybody, these are the smart boys. So those
[2:15:04]two companies right away, in terms of, I said that we need, now in the next three weeks
[2:15:10]if you're going to leave, those two right away. Let's go through.
[2:15:35]More through. I need to see the numbers here before I have, so I can be intelligent.
[2:15:39]See the numbers. What is tempting there, that I know the people, and basically you don't
[2:15:47]know more than one success in this game, according to the contract that they proposed
[2:15:53]to me, to get basically much richer than I am now. I understand. Getting some 20 or
[2:16:00]30 million dollars along several years. I understand.
[2:16:05]Okay. Okay. So that's number one.
[2:16:08]Number two. A Swiss private bank. I'm going to meet with them. This coming, I fly tomorrow
[2:16:18]to Europe. I'm going to meet with them.
[2:16:26]They basically asked me to, help to join something very similar to what, if I understand
[2:16:42]well, Tony or H06.
[2:16:43]Tony?emma?
[2:16:45]that Schultz was doing for Jay Pembroke, namely running certain kinds of international advisory
[2:16:54]boards that they don't have now to help them to push business.
[2:16:59]And they are very clear what they would like to do, to help them to approach effectively
[2:17:06]and convince people and players, families.
[2:17:13]They are like many other banks, they want to concentrate on high net worth, some extremely
[2:17:28]big operations for some reason have to be quite known names, small and private and
[2:17:43]like almost kind of confidential like Pigtet or Lombard.
[2:17:49]And as a result, cleaner.
[2:17:51]I tried to check, I didn't find anything.
[2:17:54]About them, but they told me, frankly, that they don't want to work with Americans.
[2:18:02]Right.
[2:18:03]Because any, even if I agree.
[2:18:06]Nobody works with Americans.
[2:18:07]Yeah, see, they told me that makes sense from a reputational point of view to work with
[2:18:12]Americans because they want to know everything, they want to publicize.
[2:18:16]It's not easy to the customer, not easy for us.
[2:18:21]So they want me to help them to reach sources.
[2:18:26]So they want me to help them to reach sources of money to manage in whatever, Latin America.
[2:18:32]How big are they now?
[2:18:33]How big are they now?
[2:18:36]Do you know?
[2:18:36]I see between mainly wealth kind of companies.
[2:18:56]I don't know exactly.
[2:18:58]They didn't reach this level.
[2:19:01]And they want, they feel, for example, they don't know even how to approach Russia because
[2:19:07]they were, they didn't like, they still feel that some of them are not going to be able to
[2:19:10]work with them.
[2:19:10]Some of the Russians are bad and they shouldn't approach them.
[2:19:14]But some others are good enough because money runs their operations outside of Russia and
[2:19:20]became quite legitimized in the financial world.
[2:19:24]What's the name?
[2:19:25]Can you tell me the name?
[2:19:27]Are you close?
[2:19:27]No, they ask me, probably I will tell you in a few days.
[2:19:30]I don't, they just ask me not to.
[2:19:33]But think of it, there are several, probably half a dozen or a dozen operations.
[2:19:37]Have they been under investigation by the states?
[2:19:40]No.
[2:19:40]Are you sure?
[2:19:42]That doesn't sound right.
[2:19:43]Yeah.
[2:19:44]It doesn't sound right.
[2:19:46]Why?
[2:19:47]Because I can't imagine that there's an institution that has $150 billion that has not been under
[2:19:53]investigation by the states.
[2:19:54]Just so you, it just doesn't sound right to me.
[2:19:57]Yeah, okay.
[2:19:57]I will recheck it with them directly if you think it's not.
[2:20:02]No, you need to find some.
[2:20:06]Okay, probably after, you know, probably after the meeting.
[2:20:08]You can ask him.
[2:20:09]Probably after the meeting, in three days I will be, it will be behind me.
[2:20:17]Fine.
[2:20:18]I will find a way to ask.
[2:20:22]They were not under investigation for something wrong.
[2:20:26]Probably the American authorities approached them like they approached all other big firms.
[2:20:33]Okay, but there is, in general terms, every Swiss bank of big size like that has been
[2:20:38]under investigation.
[2:20:39]So, it's a question, if they no longer, the question you need to ask, did you ever deal
[2:20:44]with Americans?
[2:20:46]Now, if they dealt with Americans in the past, they're under investigation.
[2:20:51]Everybody who's touched an American is under investigation.
[2:20:53]Okay.
[2:20:54]So, they might not be now because they told all the, what normally happened, like there's
[2:20:59]a bank called Wegelen, W-E-G-E-L-E-N, they were the big ones.
[2:21:06]Julius Baer, big ones.
[2:21:08]If you had an American, they told all the Americans, you must take your account out.
[2:21:15]All the Swiss banks were no longer allowed to have American clients.
[2:21:22]Yeah.
[2:21:23]But, the government says, look, I need to know who had accounts at your bank, because
[2:21:32]they have not paid their taxes.
[2:21:35]And we want their names.
[2:21:37]Yeah.
[2:21:38]And the big fight for most banks are the banks that we can't, under Swiss law, we can't give
[2:21:41]you their names.
[2:21:43]But we can give it to the Swiss government.
[2:21:44]And the Swiss government probably is going to yield to the Americans in order to give.
[2:21:45]Yes.
[2:21:46]By then, all the banks will give.
[2:21:47]But all these, I believe that Lombard and the Pigtet were, it was in the open media
[2:21:48]that they were under certain investigations.
[2:21:49]Yes, they were.
[2:21:50]But Credit Suisse and the UBS.
[2:21:51]The UBS.
[2:21:52]The UBS.
[2:21:53]The UBS.
[2:21:54]The UBS.
[2:21:55]The UBS.
[2:21:56]The UBS.
[2:21:57]The UBS.
[2:21:58]The UBS.
[2:21:59]The UBS.
[2:22:00]The UBS.
[2:22:01]The UBS.
[2:22:02]The UBS.
[2:22:03]The UBS.
[2:22:04]The UBS.
[2:22:05]The UBS.
[2:22:06]The UBS.
[2:22:07]And the UBS.
[2:22:08]Also had been under.
[2:22:09]Yes.
[2:22:10]And the Wegland and the.
[2:22:12]Wegland.
[2:22:13]And the Jules Bell.
[2:22:14]The worst so far has been Wegland.
[2:22:15]Wegland.
[2:22:18]Under investigation.
[2:22:19]No, they pled guilty.
[2:22:20]Uh-huh.
[2:22:21]They already were charged.
[2:22:22]And the others, the, the Jules Bell.
[2:22:23]Not yet.
[2:22:24]No.
[2:22:25]They want.
[2:22:26]Not yet pled guilty or not yet under investigation.
[2:22:27]They're all under investigation.
[2:22:28]Yeah.
[2:22:29]Okay.
[2:22:30]Not yet charged.
[2:22:31]Everyone's under investigation.
[2:22:32]Some have been charged.
[2:22:33]Because it's how abusive.
[2:22:34]Because it's how abusive it is.
[2:22:35]It's the way they are.
[2:22:36]And the UBS.
[2:22:37]It's the UBS.
[2:22:38]Really, what happens is this.
[2:22:40]You're under investigation.
[2:22:42]Congratulations, you're under investigation.
[2:22:44]You cooperate with me.
[2:22:46]So you're okay.
[2:22:48]We won't bother you.
[2:22:49]You want to tell me to take a walk,
[2:22:52]I will indict you in New York.
[2:22:55]If we indict you in New York,
[2:22:57]you're not allowed to do business with American banks
[2:23:00]anywhere in the world.
[2:23:01]So you're out of business.
[2:23:04]So you either give us what we want.
[2:23:06]If you are not cooperating,
[2:23:09]you're dead.
[2:23:10]You will be charged here.
[2:23:16]And then automatically, anyone who is charged,
[2:23:20]you have a problem.
[2:23:21]So Weglin paid a fine of $75 million.
[2:23:25]Who?
[2:23:26]Weglin Bank.
[2:23:27]W-E-G-E-L-I-N.
[2:23:29]Paid how much?
[2:23:29]$75 million.
[2:23:31]UBS paid $750 million.
[2:23:34]$750.
[2:23:35]But?
[2:23:36]But they paid $75 million.
[2:23:38]But even, even, I've noticed, even the...
[2:23:40]Wait.
[2:23:41]RBS paid now for whatever.
[2:23:43]The different trade, but...
[2:23:45]Different trade.
[2:23:46]That was rate rigging.
[2:23:48]But here's, I'm going to pay $75 million
[2:23:50]and give you the names of every American
[2:23:53]who had an account.
[2:23:56]So that's very much,
[2:23:59]that sets the tone moving forward.
[2:24:01]If the bank has given up American names,
[2:24:04]people are a little more hesitant
[2:24:05]because, okay, we know,
[2:24:08]it's like Mubarak, right?
[2:24:10]You threw the last people,
[2:24:11]anybody who came to you the last time,
[2:24:12]Americans, maybe it's my country,
[2:24:14]it's Russia who wants to know,
[2:24:16]are we having it?
[2:24:17]Are these managed accounts?
[2:24:19]Are they private accounts?
[2:24:20]Are they secret accounts?
[2:24:21]They're all...
[2:24:22]You need to know...
[2:24:23]Yeah, yeah.
[2:24:24]Swiss banking system seems to be fully protected.
[2:24:29]Our clients know it somehow.
[2:24:31]They still trust that it's easier
[2:24:33]than in other places of the world.
[2:24:35]It's not places like...
[2:24:36]You see, the nice part...
[2:24:37]The nice part about Switzerland for people,
[2:24:43]if you have $100 million
[2:24:45]and you have it in Switzerland,
[2:24:47]you don't want a return.
[2:24:50]You don't care if your money makes money.
[2:24:53]You don't care if it doesn't make.
[2:24:55]Right, you don't care
[2:24:56]because you shouldn't, it's safe.
[2:25:00]So you just, you have it there for safety,
[2:25:02]not for profit.
[2:25:05]Yeah.
[2:25:05]So it's very easy.
[2:25:06]But they have, somehow,
[2:25:07]taking some of the money
[2:25:09]as a management fee
[2:25:11]or you're saying they probably do it
[2:25:13]and they let you get very little
[2:25:15]but you don't, not anymore.
[2:25:17]So they...
[2:25:17]In fact, if they make 2%,
[2:25:19]they take 2%.
[2:25:20]The deal is that they take 2%,
[2:25:22]they take 2%, give you half percent,
[2:25:25]all satisfied because what you really bought is safety.
[2:25:28]Right.
[2:25:29]But if that's the case,
[2:25:30]it might not be extremely complicated
[2:25:32]to help them to make money.
[2:25:34]That's correct.
[2:25:35]Unless they are under...
[2:25:37]such an investigation
[2:25:39]and end up to be on the wrong side.
[2:25:41]Correct.
[2:25:42]But why should they be on the wrong side
[2:25:44]if they understand what you have said?
[2:25:46]Because everyone ultimately,
[2:25:48]they don't have it.
[2:25:50]It's a issue of survivability.
[2:25:53]So, hello,
[2:26:05],
[2:26:13],
[2:26:17]I'm here, I'm in a meeting.
[2:26:18]Come on, I'll give you...
[2:26:30]Pick up my phone tomorrow,
[2:26:32]10 o'clock in the morning,
[2:26:33]and we'll see tomorrow's deadline.
[2:26:35]When?
[2:26:36]On the 4th, I'll...
[2:26:36]The 4th, I think.
[2:26:37]I'll make a call.
[2:26:38]Hello?
[2:26:42]Hello?
[2:26:44]Yes.
[2:26:46]Hello?
[2:26:46]Talk to me tomorrow morning at 10 o'clock.
[2:26:49]Hello?
[2:28:15]Yeah.
[2:28:16]Okay.
[2:28:17]Let's think of it.
[2:28:19]Go after you show them.
[2:28:20]Yeah, we'll come later to it.
[2:28:24]They want, basically,
[2:28:26]they seem to be interested.
[2:28:30]They never...
[2:28:32]We'll never reach them.
[2:28:32]We'll never reach the point where they will tell me,
[2:28:36]okay, we want to send you an offer.
[2:28:37]They know that I'm going to leave only several weeks.
[2:28:41]But probably after this meeting in Switzerland,
[2:28:48]they might send me a certain paper proposing that I'll be there.
[2:28:54]I don't know what they have in mind in terms of compensation.
[2:28:58]I don't want...
[2:28:59]No, I assume that they will find a way to give me
[2:29:02]a certain amount as a kind of basis.
[2:29:05]Certain coverage of expenses could be quite high
[2:29:11]because they have to satisfy...
[2:29:14]In order to meet with the possible clients,
[2:29:17]we have to spend some time, I know, in the...
[2:29:20]In Sardinia or in the Gstaad or in the Punda,
[2:29:24]in the Leicester or whatever.
[2:29:28]Did you talk numbers at all?
[2:29:29]No, no, never.
[2:29:30]No, no, never.
[2:29:31]And probably certain element of a kind of performance
[2:29:41]or results-based bonus or compensation.
[2:29:46]Probably stretch over time.
[2:29:48]I think that there is basically...
[2:29:49]I didn't talk to them about it, but...
[2:29:52]And who are you speaking...
[2:29:53]I mean, you're speaking to the president or the owner?
[2:29:59]I spoke...
[2:30:03]They came to my house as a kind of just...
[2:30:06]to our place in Tel Aviv.
[2:30:08]Asked to meet with me.
[2:30:11]One of the...
[2:30:12]Probably number three in the organization
[2:30:15]together with one of the...
[2:30:17]Probably the then CEO.
[2:30:22]Later on, they...
[2:30:24]I met with the CEO.
[2:30:29]And he spent 25 minutes with me for the first time.
[2:30:37]I know indirectly that he was quite impressed.
[2:30:40]And he made up his mind that he wants to see me there.
[2:30:45]And he asked me to meet with them.
[2:30:50]And to visit with them and to...
[2:30:54]We will meet.
[2:30:58]I assume that he will cover some issues.
[2:31:01]Probably it will come to a point when...
[2:31:04]Well, I will tell him,
[2:31:05]okay, if you're interested, send me an offer.
[2:31:08]I don't know how to continue from here.
[2:31:12]And I would appreciate if you give me some of your assessments
[2:31:16]or knowledge about how much they might propose,
[2:31:22]how much I might ask for,
[2:31:27]what could be something which is not...
[2:31:30]Outrageous.
[2:31:31]Yeah.
[2:31:32]Yeah, outrageous.
[2:31:34]Trying to use me, so I don't...
[2:31:36]They basically seem to respect me.
[2:31:38]Because it's their initiative,
[2:31:39]how they came to me.
[2:31:41]Do you want to get an offer while you're still in the government?
[2:31:44]Or would you rather wait until you get out?
[2:31:46]No. I prefer to tell them,
[2:31:48]send me an offer after the 14th of May.
[2:31:50]I don't know.
[2:31:51]I don't want something to be on record before.
[2:31:53]Right.
[2:31:54]I will tell you later on that in regard to security,
[2:31:57]there was also some quite important layer in this arena
[2:32:04]that approached me and that they wanted to see tomorrow.
[2:32:07]To bring the founder, the president, whatever,
[2:32:11]and to sit down and start to work on list of whatever,
[2:32:16]agencies or states that I will start to talk to
[2:32:22]as part of their proposal to establish some operations outside this country.
[2:32:29]Where's that company from?
[2:32:32]It's one of the...
[2:32:33]Once again, they also...
[2:32:34]I will tell you their name probably in a few days.
[2:32:37]They are one of the leaders of service providers in the internet.
[2:32:44]Okay.
[2:32:45]And they feel that they can use their security.
[2:32:48]Right.
[2:32:49]They access and they control of...
[2:32:56]I understand.
[2:32:57]...of the movement of material in the internet,
[2:33:00]the cloud enables them to create...
[2:33:03]It gives them a huge leverage.
[2:33:04]And they are in quite good relationship here.
[2:33:08]Okay.
[2:33:09]But they think that I can help them to develop the same kind of relationship
[2:33:12]with many other countries.
[2:33:14]Okay.
[2:33:14]Because they can find or identify the cyber attacks
[2:33:20]or the deployment for attacks much earlier than the firewalls
[2:33:24]or those who are looking just around the machines themselves.
[2:33:28]Now, do you...
[2:33:31]My understanding...
[2:33:32]I mentioned it because...
[2:33:33]Only because...
[2:33:34]Let me...
[2:33:34]Sure.
[2:33:35]Yeah.
[2:33:35]I mentioned it just because...
[2:33:38]Just to tell you that I deliberately delayed them at certain price
[2:33:43]because they want to...
[2:33:46]They also came to me.
[2:33:48]I didn't...
[2:33:49]Right.
[2:33:50]...know...
[2:33:51]I knew the name but I didn't know what they are doing.
[2:33:54]They came to me.
[2:33:55]They asked to meet with me.
[2:33:57]I didn't yet see the number one person.
[2:34:01]I see the president.
[2:34:02]I didn't see the CEO, the guy who runs it.
[2:34:07]But it seems that they are...
[2:34:08]They are interested.
[2:34:09]And I delayed them too.
[2:34:11]I told them I cannot do it.
[2:34:12]It's not proper.
[2:34:13]Too many people in the room who ended up that I started making business
[2:34:18]when I was still Minister of Defense.
[2:34:19]Right.
[2:34:20]Especially in regards to security.
[2:34:22]But I go back to that.
[2:34:23]I don't want a proposal before I end.
[2:34:25]But I want to draw from you certain feelings.
[2:34:30]I also...
[2:34:30]What could be reasonable for them
[2:34:33]and whether they might ask me to be exclusive.
[2:34:35]It makes...
[2:34:36]Does it make sense?
[2:34:37]If America is not part of it, so why should they have any...
[2:34:42]For the next month, it's the same attitude which is,
[2:34:45]look, I came here.
[2:34:49]I wanted to listen to what you have to offer.
[2:34:54]I am very fortunate because...
[2:34:57]As many...
[2:34:58]I have to...
[2:34:59]I'm going to make a decision by April where I will devote my time.
[2:35:07]I'm not going to make a decision before April 1st.
[2:35:10]Yeah.
[2:35:11]When is your last day?
[2:35:12]It's...
[2:35:13]Last day is 14 of...
[2:35:15]March.
[2:35:16]Of March.
[2:35:17]If Bibi succeeds in...
[2:35:20]Is it possible he doesn't succeed?
[2:35:23]It has no precedent, but it can happen.
[2:35:26]If then I'm going to lose a quarter of a million dollars
[2:35:35]just for the first six weeks by having to cancel certain lectures.
[2:35:40]I consider even to retire.
[2:35:48]To sack myself.
[2:35:52]To resign.
[2:35:53]Right.
[2:35:55]On the 14th.
[2:35:57]But it won't be read properly in Israel.
[2:36:00]People immediately will identify.
[2:36:01]They will find where I met him.
[2:36:04]Yeah.
[2:36:04]The only thing I can say, okay, I planned it in advance.
[2:36:07]I cannot...
[2:36:09]But...
[2:36:10]People say, yeah, what will happen is two days.
[2:36:12]Afterwards, Syria will collapse.
[2:36:13]There is no experience.
[2:36:16]And what is the truth there?
[2:36:22]It happens in Syria.
[2:36:23]Syria is going to collapse.
[2:36:24]I don't know where.
[2:36:25]I don't know when.
[2:36:26]No, but what happens if Syria...
[2:36:29]I guess America is not going to go after Iran soon.
[2:36:37]But if something happens that's dramatic,
[2:36:40]if Hezbollah does something goofy,
[2:36:44]who else is going to...
[2:36:46]Here's one of my issues.
[2:36:47]I mean, even though you're disliked as a politician,
[2:36:52]if Israel has a military something or other,
[2:36:58]who's going to do it besides you?
[2:36:59]No, no.
[2:37:00]There will be...
[2:37:01]Once there is a defense minister,
[2:37:03]he will do it, probably short of perfect,
[2:37:05]but he will do it with the government.
[2:37:07]He's not alone.
[2:37:08]There's an arm for it.
[2:37:09]I worry only about the technical situation that might be created.
[2:37:15]I hope it won't if nothing happens.
[2:37:19]And then there is another round.
[2:37:21]And if the other round fails as well after another,
[2:37:24]probably the mid of April,
[2:37:27]another round is failing.
[2:37:30]So within 90 days,
[2:37:32]mainly May, June, July,
[2:37:34]at the beginning of July,
[2:37:35]there will be another election,
[2:37:37]after which there is another...
[2:37:39]It can end up the whole summer.
[2:37:41]So I don't want to be stuck there.
[2:37:44]Right.
[2:37:45]I prefer to impose upon Bibi
[2:37:48]to nominate someone else the 14th,
[2:37:50]even if temporarily.
[2:37:53]And just say, okay...
[2:37:55]Because I...
[2:37:58]It's important that the first offer be high.
[2:38:01]Right.
[2:38:02]Let's assume they say $3 million a year.
[2:38:05]Tony gets $5 million from J.P. Morgan.
[2:38:08]Yeah, but J.P. Morgan is a much bigger operation.
[2:38:11]One of the biggest...
[2:38:12]So we know it's not going to be more than five.
[2:38:15]Yeah.
[2:38:16]So the number is going to be between one and four.
[2:38:19]Between one and four, yeah.
[2:38:21]That's the real number.
[2:38:22]Okay.
[2:38:23]So if they believe you have lots of other alternatives,
[2:38:26]I think they'll offer you one and a half to two to start off with.
[2:38:30]Yeah.
[2:38:31]We'll negotiate...
[2:38:32]I can't.
[2:38:33]Sorry.
[2:38:34]I thought you were serious.
[2:38:35]I thought you were a serious player.
[2:38:36]If a million and a half dollars,
[2:38:37]I can make that in five speeches for five days a year.
[2:38:38]I don't need it.
[2:38:39]Yeah.
[2:38:40]Now, in real life, though,
[2:38:41]once we really know,
[2:38:42]because you can't have yourself involved in a bank
[2:38:43]that does funny things.
[2:38:44]What is funny?
[2:38:45]Illegal.
[2:38:46]I don't think it is illegal.
[2:38:47]I don't know, but you don't know.
[2:38:48]Yeah.
[2:38:49]I don't know.
[2:38:50]I don't know.
[2:38:51]I don't know.
[2:38:52]I don't know.
[2:38:53]I don't know.
[2:38:54]I don't know.
[2:38:55]I don't know.
[2:38:56]I don't know.
[2:38:57]I don't know.
[2:38:58]I don't know.
[2:38:59]I don't know.
[2:39:01]I don't know.
[2:39:02]I don't care what you think.
[2:39:03]It's interesting.
[2:39:04]But we need to know that you can't...
[2:39:06]How can I know and how can I present this?
[2:39:09]The very question raised doubts about their position.
[2:39:14]Is it...
[2:39:15]Well, once you tell me their name,
[2:39:16]we can have some sense.
[2:39:18]Who are their big clients?
[2:39:19]Are their big clients Africans, Russians, South Americans?
[2:39:23]No.
[2:39:24]No.
[2:39:25]That's exactly...
[2:39:26]They are not.
[2:39:27]There are many Europeans.
[2:39:28]You know, the Italians have a problem.
[2:39:30]Yeah.
[2:39:31]They told me, quite frankly, that they hesitated to enter Russia because of reputational issues.
[2:39:39]Right.
[2:39:40]And that they are not...
[2:39:45]They are relatively weak in Latin America.
[2:39:48]They think that they have to go there, or Latin America and Central America.
[2:39:52]Don't even know how to start to think about China.
[2:39:58]And they think that it's a rising...
[2:40:00]Do they have any other branches, any other countries?
[2:40:04]Yeah, yeah.
[2:40:05]There are hundreds of people working here.
[2:40:07]No, no.
[2:40:08]But do they have other branches?
[2:40:11]Like a real business in Singapore?
[2:40:13]Do they have a bank in Singapore?
[2:40:15]Do they have a bank?
[2:40:16]I don't know.
[2:40:17]I don't think that they have banks in the normal sense.
[2:40:22]I need to know more.
[2:40:23]I don't think that they are...
[2:40:25]I don't think that they are wanting...
[2:40:27]I don't know, retail.
[2:40:31]Retail for sure they don't have.
[2:40:33]I need to...
[2:40:34]But what...
[2:40:35]And they don't have...
[2:40:37]I never see them on the car of...
[2:40:38]on the kind of undersigning operations.
[2:40:43]So probably they are doing it...
[2:40:46]So instead of talking theory,
[2:40:49]when you're free to tell me the details,
[2:40:51]I can give you real information.
[2:40:53]Yes.
[2:40:55]So probably it will happen
[2:40:56]mid-next week, probably Wednesday.
[2:41:00]And the security company, when?
[2:41:07]They won't talk to you before that?
[2:41:08]No, they talk to me.
[2:41:12]I met with their president.
[2:41:13]Right.
[2:41:14]And they sent a guy who is associated with them in Israel.
[2:41:19]And they came directly,
[2:41:22]they came to me and asked for a meeting now,
[2:41:26]here or in their headquarters.
[2:41:30]What country?
[2:41:31]Here.
[2:41:32]It's an American company.
[2:41:37]So it's a...
[2:41:39]They also...
[2:41:39]But I, you know, I cannot...
[2:41:42]They also...
[2:41:43]They...
[2:41:43]I didn't mention numbers.
[2:41:45]But from what I know,
[2:41:46]to be a member of the board of an American company
[2:41:49]could be, I don't know, half a million dollars a year or so.
[2:41:52]Probably 300,000, probably half a million, depends on it.
[2:41:55]Right.
[2:41:56]And, okay, if they do it just to get it,
[2:42:00]they probably will ask, you know,
[2:42:01]according to what they wait for this meeting,
[2:42:05]they are very extremely practical people.
[2:42:07]They want me to help them because they believe
[2:42:09]that outside of this continent,
[2:42:11]in this continent they are quite well,
[2:42:13]very well connected.
[2:42:15]But once again, I noticed that the race,
[2:42:18]the high board, when they learn,
[2:42:22]whom I know personally here from the people
[2:42:24]they are fighting to convince the hierarchy underneath them to work.
[2:42:30]But...
[2:42:31]Is it a public company?
[2:42:38]They don't have this kind of access to Germany.
[2:42:43]Right.
[2:42:43]But publicly traded companies are easier
[2:42:45]because most of the information is available.
[2:42:48]Yeah.
[2:42:48]So we know what the board...
[2:42:49]We can find out what all the board members...
[2:42:50]Yeah, yeah.
[2:42:50]That's by looking...
[2:42:51]I don't think they want me on the board.
[2:42:53]Okay.
[2:42:53]I think that probably they won't.
[2:42:56]They even left...
[2:42:58]They told the Israeli guy, left the open.
[2:43:00]Ask Barak what he would like.
[2:43:02]They want to be member or head of international advisory board
[2:43:07]or advisor to us, consultant, whatever.
[2:43:10]But we know exactly what we want from him.
[2:43:13]Right.
[2:43:13]We want him to help us with his authority on security and...
[2:43:17]Right.
[2:43:19]And whatever.
[2:43:20]When quite advanced intelligence community was there,
[2:43:26]they know whatever they need about me.
[2:43:29]And say we want...
[2:43:31]We believe that if we arrange a list of countries...
[2:43:34]Right.
[2:43:35]That you can approach on top level...
[2:43:37]Do they know your last name used to be Brog?
[2:43:40]I don't know.
[2:43:41]Yes.
[2:43:41]Probably.
[2:43:44]But they expect me to create a list of...
[2:43:48]Is it?
[2:43:49]Is it working?
[2:43:50]Is it being scheduled to bring the people to start to convince other people to...
[2:43:56]But those things, again, are easy.
[2:43:58]Because, in fact, if we know what you're selling and how much your work...
[2:44:02]What you're selling is worth...
[2:44:03]Yeah.
[2:44:03]And here, once again, I think that the real story is how...
[2:44:07]What kind of model could be shaped that will compensate me a long time.
[2:44:12]Do it in whatever.
[2:44:15]In regard to contracts that I held there,
[2:44:18]we set a target that are exclusive.
[2:44:21]In the sense that I would approach them,
[2:44:23]and if something goes up for me,
[2:44:27]I would be supporting them.
[2:44:27]No question.
[2:44:28]That's the second story.
[2:44:33]Now, there is a third one that I will share with you,
[2:44:38]because it comes together with something that I owe you, kind of.
[2:44:47]I approached an American CEO.
[2:44:53]It's originally German, Klaus Kleinfeld.
[2:44:55]He's the head of a company called Alcoa now,
[2:45:01]Aluminium, the biggest company.
[2:45:07]I know him from the time that he was here,
[2:45:13]heading of Siemens America,
[2:45:16]under Heinrich von Pyrrhe,
[2:45:18]who was a friend of mine, head of Siemens.
[2:45:21]Right.
[2:45:21]And Dr. von Pyrrhe asked me a favor,
[2:45:25]that I will go meet with the young,
[2:45:28]the most young person,
[2:45:30]and will give him my impression of the guy,
[2:45:35]because he wants to consider whether he can jump him
[2:45:38]over the heads of everyone on the board,
[2:45:40]and put him as his replacement.
[2:45:46]And I came here, I was quite impressed by the guy,
[2:45:49]and I had several meetings with the rest of the board members,
[2:45:52]I saw them as well.
[2:45:54]And I told him I think it could be good,
[2:45:56]and he did it.
[2:45:58]He took him and jumped him.
[2:46:00]And I...
[2:46:02]I'm still wondering, I'm not sure that Klaus knows all the stories,
[2:46:06]but probably later on he became acquainted with it somehow,
[2:46:10]through Dr. von Pyrrhe himself or...
[2:46:13]But we have...
[2:46:15]I met with him several times in business gatherings
[2:46:18]when I was in private life,
[2:46:20]and we even tried to start some initiative in Moscow,
[2:46:24]some parking system,
[2:46:26]that Siemens would be the prime contractor,
[2:46:28]we would create a relationship with Luchkov,
[2:46:31]and...
[2:46:32]with Yelena Baturina,
[2:46:34]and all the French leadership, too.
[2:46:39]And they...
[2:46:41]I asked him, sent him something similar there,
[2:46:43]we met, he brought his number two kind of operational assistant,
[2:46:50]a guy who was once with NSC, and...
[2:47:02]And they also say basically,
[2:47:07]tell us what you want, it's...
[2:47:10]Okay, we like you, we...
[2:47:12]Right.
[2:47:13]He didn't use the, I owe you, but he said,
[2:47:16]I like Barak very much, great person,
[2:47:19]tell me what, how, what way you want to be involved.
[2:47:23]Probably once again it might end up with certain kind of
[2:47:26]several hundred thousand that he can decide to pay if I give them,
[2:47:30]I don't know, whatever, consultancy about protecting the mines around the world.
[2:47:36]But...
[2:47:37]Security.
[2:47:38]Yes.
[2:47:39]But that doesn't make a lot of money,
[2:47:41]unless I can find some way once again
[2:47:44]to bring together achievements that I can help them to do,
[2:47:48]either in upstream or downstream and...
[2:47:50]But my...
[2:47:51]They will know more about what you can do for them than you can guess.
[2:47:58]So you need to, that's what I'm saying,
[2:47:59]you need to have them say, look,
[2:48:01]it's the same thing, I am...
[2:48:03]I don't have that much time,
[2:48:05]I'm 71 years old,
[2:48:08]I have five years of being...
[2:48:10]travel around for five years active.
[2:48:12]I'm going to have to make a decision about how I spend my time.
[2:48:16]If you think I'm going to be an ass...
[2:48:22]If you think I'm an asset for you,
[2:48:25]you should send me a proposal, but it should be...
[2:48:28]I need to receive it by March 20th.
[2:48:30]Between the 14th and the 20th.
[2:48:32]Because by April 1st I'm going to make decisions.
[2:48:36]That's it.
[2:48:37]No more talking, we're done.
[2:48:39]They know how much you're worth to them.
[2:48:43]But the more you say, well, we...
[2:48:45]You can't ask, will you pay my expenses or...
[2:48:48]Just...
[2:48:49]Send me a proposal.
[2:48:51]Send me an offer between the 14th and the 20th,
[2:48:53]and by April 1st I'll give you an answer.
[2:48:56]One, two, three.
[2:48:58]No discussion.
[2:49:00]Because...
[2:49:02]The offer will come in higher than you think because of that.
[2:49:05]I like the security company more than I like the bank.
[2:49:21]The security company you can't get in trouble.
[2:49:26]I would...
[2:49:29]I will...
[2:49:32]Let's continue and then we'll compare all the...
[2:49:35]Sure.
[2:49:36]March.
[2:49:46]Yes, March 14th and the 20th.
[2:49:51]As if you're giving them an order.
[2:49:54]Yeah.
[2:49:55]March 31st and on April 1st I...
[2:50:02]You want an offer between the 14th and the 20th.
[2:50:07]Send me an offer between the 14th and the 20th.
[2:50:10]21st.
[2:50:11]Okay.
[2:50:13]You negotiated with me already.
[2:50:15]Yeah, and on April 1st,
[2:50:18]I will give you an answer.
[2:50:26]Actually, send me an offer however kind of...
[2:50:30]No, don't mention however detailed.
[2:50:32]Nothing.
[2:50:33]Just send me an offer.
[2:50:34]Yeah.
[2:50:35]Okay.
[2:50:39]You said basically the bank.
[2:50:41]They give...
[2:50:42]They might propose something between one and four million.
[2:50:45]Right.
[2:50:46]Probably.
[2:50:48]And probably some mechanism of bonus.
[2:50:52]Will they ask for exclusivity?
[2:50:55]No.
[2:50:56]No.
[2:50:57]They can't basically.
[2:50:58]No.
[2:50:59]Because they are not dealing with North America.
[2:51:00]They don't...
[2:51:01]Right.
[2:51:02]And basically even if they would ask...
[2:51:03]They might ask for a bank exclusively.
[2:51:04]Yeah.
[2:51:05]I could easily explain to them that some other activities might create synergies.
[2:51:06]It's not...
[2:51:07]It's better not...
[2:51:08]Again.
[2:51:09]No.
[2:51:10]The answer is it's not...
[2:51:11]I'm not...
[2:51:12]I can't do an exclusive.
[2:51:14]Yeah.
[2:51:15]It's not...
[2:51:16]It's better not...
[2:51:17]Again.
[2:51:18]No.
[2:51:19]The answer is...
[2:51:20]It's not...
[2:51:21]I'm not...
[2:51:22]I can't do an exclusive.
[2:51:23]Yeah.
[2:51:24]It's not...
[2:51:25]It's not exclusive.
[2:51:26]Yeah.
[2:51:27]Don't defend yourself.
[2:51:28]Don't explain yourself.
[2:51:29]Yeah.
[2:51:37]Yeah.
[2:51:38]I can give them...
[2:51:39]Give them less than more.
[2:51:40]Yeah.
[2:51:41]If...
[2:51:42]Would you consider exclusivity?
[2:51:43]No.
[2:51:44]No.
[2:51:45]No.
[2:51:46]You need to be seen...
[2:51:47]Especially the military.
[2:51:48]This is...
[2:51:49]Yeah.
[2:51:50]I fully understand.
[2:51:51]Okay.
[2:51:52]Let me continue.
[2:51:53]A friend.
[2:51:54]By a guy.
[2:51:55]A friend of mine.
[2:51:56]Or a soldier of mine.
[2:51:57]A soldier of mine.
[2:52:00]A soldier of mine.
[2:52:04]A soldier of mine.
[2:52:05]A soldier of mine.
[2:52:06]A soldier of mine.
[2:52:07]A soldier of mine.
[2:52:13]A soldier of mine.
[2:52:14]In a unit that once commanded the service.
[2:52:15]He is now a small sized kind of real estate businessman here in New Jersey owning some
[2:52:22]kind of parking operations here.
[2:52:25]Right.
[2:52:26]But he is well connected.
[2:52:29]Up to Biden.
[2:52:30]You know the people in the...
[2:52:33]He came to me and said the following.
[2:52:39]I feel very strongly that small funds.
[2:52:42]Small funds.
[2:52:43]Small funds.
[2:52:44]probably between 3 to 8 or 9 billion dollars in size, will be extremely interested.
[2:52:59]Not the big ones who have their own foreign ministries, but the small ones would be interested in having you,
[2:53:08]just because of your name you can go, something very similar to what you told me about Blue Mountain.
[2:53:15]And it seems that without even checking with them, he told me I know one or two of those guys that
[2:53:23]easily want to pay you one million dollars just to use your name, or two million dollars to tell that you are one of them.
[2:53:32]And it works for them, because otherwise...
[2:53:37]He mentioned one name.
[2:53:39]Are you going to tell me that name, or you're not going to tell me that name either?
[2:53:42]No, no. Jimmy Walker.
[2:53:44]But the name sounds to me something very...
[2:53:47]Because that was a guy that once, I met him several years ago here,
[2:53:52]and he was somehow dealing with running money for the Assad family or something like this.
[2:54:01]The Assad family?
[2:54:02]Yeah. Jimmy Walker probably the name.
[2:54:12]I will tell you the rest of the names as well, long before March 14.
[2:54:38]Probably I will know the name tomorrow.
[2:54:48]The hedge fund is here?
[2:54:50]It's not a hedge fund, it's probably private equity.
[2:54:53]So you think it's private equity?
[2:54:57]Probably.
[2:54:58]But the name is Jimmy Walker.
[2:55:01]You can't find too many Jimmy Walkers.
[2:55:04]I might be able to tell you tomorrow.
[2:55:13]I have more details on what this is.
[2:55:15]Probably there are others, I don't know what he has in mind.
[2:55:18]I'm going to meet this guy.
[2:55:20]Okay.
[2:55:24]Sergei, was he a Washington firm?
[2:55:38]Yeah, probably, either Washington or New York.
[2:55:41]I met him here.
[2:55:42]Wealth management, yeah, probably.
[2:55:50]Yeah, probably.
[2:55:55]How old is he?
[2:56:05]No, that one is too old.
[2:56:07]He has two, so many kids.
[2:56:09]How old he might be?
[2:56:11]If you get married in 67, he's 47.
[2:56:18]He's probably 70, 65, 70.
[2:56:25]50?
[2:56:26]65, 70?
[2:56:27]No.
[2:56:28]Okay.
[2:56:29]No.
[2:56:30]Can't be that.
[2:56:32]Why don't you get me the real...
[2:56:34]Yeah, but wait.
[2:56:36]I will tell you.
[2:56:37]I will tell you tomorrow by noon time.
[2:56:42]I will call you and tell you.
[2:56:44]Got it.
[2:56:46]I'm going to meet with this guy.
[2:56:48]Okay.
[2:56:50]But think of it once again.
[2:56:53]Is it Golden City?
[2:57:05]Probably.
[2:57:07]How he looks.
[2:57:08]Too many black people named Jimmy Walker.
[2:57:40]All right, tomorrow you tell me.
[2:57:42]I will tell you.
[2:57:43]Okay.
[2:57:45]Now, the other idea is what Terry raised.
[2:57:53]Can you tell me in one word what do you think about it?
[2:57:57]The idea that we will establish certain operation, probably together, probably with him and with
[2:58:05]me and with Terry.
[2:58:06]I don't know whether you are leaders or kind of want to...
[2:58:09]Probably you are behind the scenes.
[2:58:11]Yes.
[2:58:12]Okay.
[2:58:13]Do you think that it's something viable or basically it will take years to do?
[2:58:18]To develop the reputation, whatever and...
[2:58:20]No, it's viable.
[2:58:25]Yeah?
[2:58:26]Because I remember Kissinger.
[2:58:27]You mentioned Kissinger.
[2:58:28]Kissinger once told me that he took to him, whether probably it was Eric Bakhtin or whoever
[2:58:29]was before him, that he took him probably one and a half years to make the first one
[2:58:30]million.
[2:58:31]That was...
[2:58:32]Yeah.
[2:58:33]He told me...
[2:58:34]You know, I had...
[2:58:35]I once told you that he wanted to consult probably Westinghouse or O.T. for...
[2:58:36]Yeah.
[2:58:37]But...
[2:58:38]But...
[2:58:39]But...
[2:58:40]But...
[2:58:41]But...
[2:58:42]But...
[2:58:43]But...
[2:58:44]But...
[2:58:45]But...
[2:58:46]But...
[2:58:47]But...
[2:58:48]But...
[2:58:49]But...
[2:58:50]But...
[2:58:51]But...
[2:58:52]And were you dry for getting two banks for...
[2:58:53]No.
[2:58:54]No.
[2:58:55]No.
[2:58:56]Because what...
[2:58:57]Because what did he...
[2:58:58]That's why I said...
[2:58:59]That's why I said...
[2:59:00]Kissinger was a policy.
[2:59:01]Yeah.
[2:59:02]Strategy, policy.
[2:59:03]Yeah.
[2:59:04]So what does that mean?
[2:59:05]It means everything and nothing.
[2:59:06]Yeah.
[2:59:07]So it takes...
[2:59:08]It's no longer, nobody knows what it is.
[2:59:09]Yeah.
[2:59:10]In your case, and in his case, it's security...
[2:59:11]Yeah.
[2:59:12]And economy.
[2:59:13]...and economy.
[2:59:14]It's very simple.
[2:59:15]It's a totally different deal.
[2:59:16]Yeah.
[2:59:17]Yes.
[2:59:18]And then you're talking about free gaming...
[2:59:19]Oh, yes.
[2:59:20]What is he talking about?
[2:59:23]yeah no I think
[2:59:24]so probably we'll have to set
[2:59:27]without asking you
[2:59:29]to send me an offer to send
[2:59:31]to sit down together with Terry
[2:59:33]first later on with
[2:59:35]Terry is coming are you going to see him
[2:59:36]I can see him tomorrow
[2:59:37]he's here
[2:59:39]he'll be here tomorrow
[2:59:40]I'm leaving in the morning
[2:59:43]he'll be in New York tomorrow Terry
[2:59:46]he's coming in at 3 o'clock I think
[2:59:47]I see him Monday night
[2:59:51]I'm going to see Larry tomorrow
[2:59:54]I'm taking Larry to Florida
[2:59:56]look I think the following
[3:00:00]start to think
[3:00:03]over with Terry
[3:00:05]the idea of what could be the kind of
[3:00:11]services
[3:00:11]the business model
[3:00:15]how do we make money out of it
[3:00:17]the contract
[3:00:19]with the government
[3:00:20]that's also
[3:00:23]something that I've heard from you
[3:00:25]Terry I believe
[3:00:27]that Tony Blair
[3:00:29]for example is doing some
[3:00:30]probably 11 million per year
[3:00:33]from the Kazakhstan government
[3:00:35]just to give them
[3:00:36]advice to help them with lobbying
[3:00:39]and some NGOs and UN organizations
[3:00:41]Tony has turned funny
[3:00:43]so I don't know
[3:00:45]what Tony is doing for money
[3:00:46]and I don't know if the money Tony is getting
[3:00:49]is actually to Tony or to somebody else
[3:00:51]sorry
[3:00:55]because it goes to Tony
[3:00:58]because they need help
[3:00:59]so Tony gets to pay some of the money
[3:01:01]to somebody else
[3:01:02]because I hear gigantic numbers
[3:01:04]given to Tony
[3:01:05]5 million here
[3:01:05]10 million here
[3:01:06]5 million there
[3:01:07]Tony's not making
[3:01:08]30 million dollars a year
[3:01:10]yeah but he's became quite
[3:01:13]I can judge from the style of his
[3:01:16]watch
[3:01:17]yes but he's making 10 million a year
[3:01:18]yeah
[3:01:18]yeah
[3:01:19]probably
[3:01:19]yeah but probably he get the money
[3:01:22]and he leave some of it with others
[3:01:23]yeah probably
[3:01:24]probably
[3:01:25]some of the providers
[3:01:26]but again
[3:01:28]see Tony is much more
[3:01:30]you
[3:01:31]you have
[3:01:32]for the moment
[3:01:33]and that's
[3:01:33]one of the things is we have to do it fast
[3:01:35]yeah
[3:01:36]yeah because it fades away very fast
[3:01:39]very fast
[3:01:40]yeah I will not have an opportunity to say
[3:01:43]to talk this way to
[3:01:46]that's correct
[3:01:46]fans
[3:01:47]but once
[3:01:48]correct
[3:01:49]right now
[3:01:50]I fully understand the opportunity
[3:01:52]okay but this one is also something that we have to discuss
[3:01:56]because
[3:01:57]we can do it beyond anything else
[3:02:00]and it can happen
[3:02:01]and it can end up being both the advice for them
[3:02:04]and probably part of the model
[3:02:06]is the capacity to provide
[3:02:09]opportunity to some
[3:02:12]think of some
[3:02:13]we are advising some country
[3:02:16]which have kind of box site
[3:02:19]and we get the
[3:02:23]don't worry about that
[3:02:25]just think about
[3:02:26]opportunity to propose to clients
[3:02:29]and the mind
[3:02:30]yes
[3:02:31]it may be the majority
[3:02:32]yes
[3:02:33]yes
[3:02:34]what makes sense
[3:02:35]that we want to go
[3:02:36]and we don't think
[3:02:37]but Ian Osborn
[3:02:38]29 years old
[3:02:39]yes
[3:02:40]29
[3:02:41]so samsung pays
[3:02:42]he has ten clients pay them 3 million
[3:02:43]and he doesn't investments for
[3:02:46]he does
[3:02:47]so
[3:02:48]Samsung
[3:02:49]Samsung
[3:02:50]it funds the fees of investment
[3:02:51]no
[3:02:52]no
[3:02:53]they can tell you
[3:02:54]because it is internet
[3:02:55]yes
[3:02:56]they said
[3:02:57]we will give you 100 million
[3:02:58]finest internet companies to buy
[3:02:59]and you get 30% of the profit
[3:03:01]this resin
[3:03:02]separate from his $3 million a year. This is brand new for him. And he doesn't have
[3:03:08]your stature. So that's the concept. It's $3 million a year and if you find an investor…
[3:03:12]Yeah, but he's something else. I've noticed that he's a socialite. He's the kind of
[3:03:18]man who entertains himself, entertains people around, enjoys. He genuinely enjoys being
[3:03:24]in a continuous party with people and work, you know. He's in a way a workaholic of social
[3:03:34]relationship where I'm a little bit more like Obama. If I have to choose, I prefer
[3:03:40]to sit alone in the room rather than to intervene. And it's not… I cannot argue that it's
[3:03:47]a forte of mine to entertain people. I can be serious with them, I can…
[3:03:53]But that's why…
[3:03:54]That's why…
[3:03:54]That's why, since you're not an entertainer, you can't explain yourself. That's my point.
[3:03:58]You have to… You seem to be military and you need to keep that in mind. You don't…
[3:04:04]You don't want to be what they want. You need to be what they think of you. If they
[3:04:10]think of you as military, it has to be crisp, clear and precise.
[3:04:13]Yeah. I will come… I'll come back to Iron Osborne. Okay. So start to think about
[3:04:21]it. I think that it's a good idea.
[3:04:24]Now, Pritzker. Pritzker asked me the same. Tell me. Try to make a matrix saying what
[3:04:30]are your… You have certain genuine…
[3:04:37]Do you have any… Can you help him in Iraq?
[3:04:39]Really. Probably within the Kurdish area, yes, but with the Iraqi government…
[3:04:49]And not Turkey?
[3:04:54]I can do it indirectly. For example, I met yesterday David Petreros.
[3:04:58]You did?
[3:04:59]I'm the only… I'm one of the only ones who keep kind of respect for him. He's a
[3:05:01]great man.
[3:05:02]He's a great man.
[3:05:03]He's a great man. He's a great man. He's a great man. He's a great man. He's a great man.
[3:05:04]He's a great man. He's a great man. He's a great man. He's a great man. He's a great
[3:05:05]man. He's a great man. He's a great man. I respect him in…
[3:05:06]Where is he?
[3:05:07]He's now… I met him with his wife, with Ollie, and I got him together with Katie
[3:05:09]Reynolds, her aunt's son.
[3:05:10]Oh, Kathy, this?
[3:05:11]For me, on the roof of the Adams, and he stood up to congratulate. I was quite embarrassed,
[3:05:12]you know, how to respond. But we talked, and he's one of the most respected people in
[3:05:34]Iraq.
[3:05:35]Thank you.
[3:05:37]We clearly have connections in Iran.
[3:05:43]I can create a contact with him.
[3:05:45]Tom already knows him pretty well.
[3:05:48]Tom thinks he's...
[3:05:49]He doesn't need me.
[3:05:50]But he also thinks he's potentially toxic.
[3:05:53]Probably, in terms of his background.
[3:05:57]Okay.
[3:05:58]We can...
[3:05:59]I can easily find...
[3:06:00]What's he going to do, Petraeus?
[3:06:01]I believe he's looking for opportunities in the private sector.
[3:06:22]I don't have hands with one or two.
[3:06:25]Like what the commander of the Balkans did.
[3:06:26]General Clark.
[3:06:27]Wesley Clark.
[3:06:28]Wesley Clark.
[3:06:29]Wrapped himself with a flag.
[3:06:30]What's Petraeus going to do?
[3:06:31]He told me, I'm going to invite you to give a speech, not for free, in the Panetta Foundation,
[3:06:32]in the...
[3:06:33]I don't know.
[3:06:34]I don't know.
[3:06:35]I don't know.
[3:06:39]I don't know.
[3:06:40]I don't know.
[3:06:41]I don't know.
[3:06:42]I don't know.
[3:06:43]I don't know.
[3:06:44]I don't know.
[3:06:45]I don't know.
[3:06:46]I don't know.
[3:06:47]I don't know.
[3:06:48]He wants to work.
[3:06:49]But we contemplated establishing an operation where Jeremy Basher was aid and Ioni will
[3:07:06]be our office and sensors.
[3:07:12]And they will bring idea where either one of us can do something.
[3:07:19]We do it to get establish some kind of idea.
[3:07:21]Do you like Pineda?
[3:07:22]I like him very much.
[3:07:23]I like him, I trust him.
[3:07:24]He'll be interesting as well.
[3:07:27]Yes.
[3:07:28]If I can, if I can, he told me, I will teach you golf.
[3:07:33]And he plays the piano.
[3:07:35]He does?
[3:07:38]See, even Pineda, you and him.
[3:07:40]Yeah, could be better than Mr.
[3:07:50]That's a strong deal.
[3:07:51]But he, he, basically, he feels quite satisfied.
[3:07:58]I, I didn't, he told me I probably will do some balls and whatever.
[3:08:05]He's kind of guy, I believe that he's about my age, probably a year older or younger,
[3:08:10]I don't know.
[3:08:11]So he probably might see that he's, okay, it's great to live in Carmel or Monterrey or
[3:08:17]whatever it is.
[3:08:18]And a farm, whatever.
[3:08:20]The, the way that he raised it signaled to me that he preferred that some younger guys
[3:08:29]will do most of the work.
[3:08:31]Right.
[3:08:32]So for us, and we step in when it's, becomes absolutely necessary to make sure that something
[3:08:40]is closed.
[3:08:41]Okay.
[3:08:42]So.
[3:08:43]And, and you, you, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the guy who has testified.
[3:08:50]Dempsey?
[3:08:51]Yes.
[3:08:52]Dempsey is still in service, but I can, for example, take Malin.
[3:08:56]Right.
[3:08:57]Malin, he might know, he's now in business.
[3:09:00]Right.
[3:09:01]Or McChrystal.
[3:09:02]McChrystal could be toxic in a way, or in a different way.
[3:09:07]So, but who do you have the best relationship with?
[3:09:10]Panetta?
[3:09:11]Yeah.
[3:09:14]Among the security people in America.
[3:09:15]Yes.
[3:09:16]Yeah, by far.
[3:09:17]I know Gates for a longer time, but he's a kind of cold fish.
[3:09:18]We are friendly, we are there.
[3:09:19]I visited him when we were both in, he headed some university somewhere in a remote place,
[3:09:20]A&M University.
[3:09:21]A&M University.
[3:09:22]A&M.
[3:09:23]A&M.
[3:09:24]A&M.
[3:09:25]A&M.
[3:09:26]A&M.
[3:09:27]A&M.
[3:09:28]A&M.
[3:09:29]A&M.
[3:09:30]A&M.
[3:09:31]A&M.
[3:09:32]A&M.
[3:09:33]A&M.
[3:09:34]A&M.
[3:09:35]A&M.
[3:09:36]If Iran goes nuclear, sometimes in the next three years, how much do you think...
[3:09:47]You at one point had suggested that everybody looks up to somebody above them, but in the
[3:09:55]case of you and Bibi there was nobody to look up to, we have to look in the mirror.
[3:09:58]Only there's someone there would be Looks like he's not answering
[3:10:03]the phone.
[3:10:05]He can't say something...
[3:10:07]No, actually he wants...
[3:10:08]He's not answering the phone.
[3:10:09]You guys didn't do what you were supposed to do?
[3:10:14]That's not clear.
[3:10:15]Depends on many.
[3:10:18]Quite probably, you know,
[3:10:19]the same people who were ready to lie on the road
[3:10:23]to block us from doing it
[3:10:25]will ask, why the hell didn't you overcome
[3:10:27]all your or our hesitation?
[3:10:31]You can expect anything, but I don't know.
[3:10:35]Basically, we never pretended
[3:10:40]that you can destroy it fully at once.
[3:10:42]The counter-argument could always be,
[3:10:47]okay, we could delay them by two and a half.
[3:10:51]You cannot know for sure.
[3:10:53]But leave it.
[3:10:55]We have now more...
[3:10:58]No, what I want to know is,
[3:11:00]what's your risk?
[3:11:01]I'm trying to think about it.
[3:11:02]That's where I'm going.
[3:11:05]I'm not going to be blamed for the fact
[3:11:08]that it's probably more the president.
[3:11:11]Okay.
[3:11:14]So with Pritzker, he asked me to try to...
[3:11:17]Vertically or vertically?
[3:11:18]But Tom uses the phrase, I owe yous.
[3:11:22]Yeah.
[3:11:23]So who owes you a favor?
[3:11:26]Who owes you something?
[3:11:28]That's what he said to me ten times already.
[3:11:31]Okay, so an example is Klaus Pfeiffer.
[3:11:35]But there is no way to prove it
[3:11:37]or to really leverage it.
[3:11:39]It's about a certain sentiment
[3:11:41]in the mind of someone
[3:11:42]rather than compelling the need to do something.
[3:11:47]Okay.
[3:11:48]When I left prime minister,
[3:11:50]the role of prime minister,
[3:11:51]Nazarbayev felt this way toward me
[3:11:55]because in several international gatherings,
[3:11:58]I praised him and he knew that I talked to Clinton
[3:12:02]and told him it doesn't make sense to behave with him.
[3:12:06]He cannot jump immediately into the Maryland standards
[3:12:10]and even the Maryland standards were not that perfect
[3:12:12]quite recently.
[3:12:14]He didn't say.
[3:12:15]And, you know, so he felt this way.
[3:12:22]And once I used it,
[3:12:24]I went there some seven years ago,
[3:12:26]brought with me an Israeli billionaire
[3:12:29]who is a Kazakhi billionaire
[3:12:32]and they waited until he was there.
[3:12:35]We were there and he asked,
[3:12:36]what do you want?
[3:12:36]And they described some big operation
[3:12:39]to take gas and oil from Turkmenistan
[3:12:42]across their area of Germany.
[3:12:45]And nothing ended up with them.
[3:12:47]Since then, 10 years, it's a long time.
[3:12:53]I cannot think of someone who owes me something.
[3:12:56]But I have very good, you know,
[3:12:59]I have very good relationship
[3:13:00]that stems out of certain sentiment with Putin.
[3:13:06]I can talk to him in a way that few, I believe,
[3:13:09]dare to or feel free to do.
[3:13:12]And I always find him responsive,
[3:13:14]very warm, very kind of, you know,
[3:13:17]steamy from a long distance.
[3:13:19]But did you have a relationship
[3:13:20]when you were prime minister or defense minister
[3:13:22]with someone from Turkish government,
[3:13:25]someone from the Jordanians?
[3:13:30]Yeah.
[3:13:31]Who you, you know,
[3:13:33]you used, who was it,
[3:13:36]before you used to have a good relationship
[3:13:38]with Suleiman, right?
[3:13:39]Who is?
[3:13:40]Egypt's Suleiman, what was his name?
[3:13:41]Yeah, Omar Suleiman.
[3:13:43]Right.
[3:13:43]Yeah, Omar Suleiman worked for years.
[3:13:45]He liked you.
[3:13:46]Yeah.
[3:13:47]Yeah, yeah, he, yeah.
[3:13:50]But he, he really owed us.
[3:13:53]But, but...
[3:13:54]He owed us his courage in a way.
[3:13:56]And Mubarak owed us a lot in more than one way.
[3:14:00]Right.
[3:14:00]So they were,
[3:14:03]in a sensitive moment,
[3:14:07]you can always look at him in the eye
[3:14:09]and remind him that you remember our relationship
[3:14:12]that's for many, many years
[3:14:15]and it became based on mutual trust
[3:14:19]and...
[3:14:19]Yes.
[3:14:22]...extraction of hand to each other.
[3:14:25]Critical points.
[3:14:26]And he, it will immediately bring to his memory.
[3:14:30]I, I don't think...
[3:14:32]So that's the question.
[3:14:33]So who else on the investigation...
[3:14:34]Shoot, cookie.
[3:14:35]Who else liked that,
[3:14:37]because that's the thing Tom was asking,
[3:14:39]was that's the type of...
[3:14:41]You mean, maybe it is?
[3:15:13]Putin is a guy...
[3:15:16]What happened to Suleiman?
[3:15:18]He's dead.
[3:15:32]Depart.
[3:15:33]Send a message to him.
[3:15:36]And I left.
[3:15:41]Mubarak, I want to meet with him,
[3:15:43]he will accept me.
[3:15:44]I mean, if I will ask a favor
[3:15:46]that he can influence,
[3:15:51]he will probably do it.
[3:15:56]As a kind of sign of trust.
[3:15:59]And it is for him, for many reasons,
[3:16:01]that I coughed it up.
[3:16:03]I want to end in a way,
[3:16:12]the way that Schroeder ended with him.
[3:16:14]The same.
[3:16:17]So they nominate him to be the representative of Gaspard,
[3:16:24]or whatever,
[3:16:29]and to be responsible for the pike that he approved.
[3:16:35]Right.
[3:16:36]So, before he left.
[3:16:38]When you ask a German leading politician,
[3:16:44]how about Schroeder,
[3:16:45]they're not feeling easy.
[3:16:51]But I could find something there,
[3:16:54]that I ask him,
[3:16:56]if it's a favor or the kind of which he can,
[3:17:01]he might do it.
[3:17:02]How often do you talk,
[3:17:03]when was the last time you spoke to him?
[3:17:06]Two years.
[3:17:07]But dealt with him.
[3:17:08]Two years?
[3:17:09]So, what I would do,
[3:17:19]it's something that,
[3:17:21]from the day one that he came to the prime minister,
[3:17:29]we replaced a guy named Stepashin.
[3:17:32]I was already prime minister,
[3:17:34]I visited Yeltsin.
[3:17:37]Right.
[3:17:38]When Stepashin was there.
[3:17:39]And then visited them when Putin just came.
[3:17:53]And since then we kept good relations.
[3:17:55]I visited him in Sochi,
[3:17:57]in St. Petersburg, in Moscow.
[3:17:59]Visiting socially or business-wise?
[3:18:01]Yeah, socially.
[3:18:03]We did a visit.
[3:18:05]I told him that I'm going,
[3:18:07]I don't remember too well.
[3:18:11]I don't remember.
[3:18:12]And he asked,
[3:18:13]come to Moscow.
[3:18:14]I said, okay.
[3:18:15]I come to Moscow.
[3:18:16]He said, oh no, I'm in Sochi.
[3:18:17]Please come to Sochi.
[3:18:18]I came to Sochi.
[3:18:19]Visited, sat down with him in his palace.
[3:18:22]He proposed we play,
[3:18:24]you know, billiards or whatever.
[3:18:26]He kind of,
[3:18:28]he all hugs me.
[3:18:30]Reminds me of stories I've told him.
[3:18:33]There is some sense of,
[3:18:36]when I'm telling him the truth about him,
[3:18:39]I'm talking to him very frankly.
[3:18:43]And he frankly kind of,
[3:18:45]someone that looks him at the eye level,
[3:18:47]talks to him,
[3:18:48]say, I don't think that you are doing the right thing for you
[3:18:51]and for Graz and this and that.
[3:18:54]I think you should look at things differently.
[3:18:56]And he listens very carefully.
[3:18:58]He respects this way of direct.
[3:19:00]Right.
[3:19:02]I don't think that there are anyone
[3:19:04]who really owes me something in the sense that.
[3:19:07]Nobody means that.
[3:19:09]You know, in a way,
[3:19:11]Ban Ki-moon doesn't owe me anything.
[3:19:14]But I believe that he developed a kind of respect for me.
[3:19:20]I helped him to appear better
[3:19:23]in many small cases around the world.
[3:19:26]He told me,
[3:19:29]bluntly, that he is ready to help me.
[3:19:33]There are moments I see even in his grunt.
[3:19:36]So the key would be,
[3:19:39]I would think about, not decided,
[3:19:42]that at some point,
[3:19:44]you can say, look,
[3:19:45]I would send a note to Putin.
[3:19:48]Say, I'm going to leave government
[3:19:50]in March 14th.
[3:19:52]I'm going to be in Scandinavia or
[3:19:58]I plan to be in Northern Europe.
[3:20:01]We should have dinner.
[3:20:04]Yeah.
[3:20:05]That's it.
[3:20:06]No more.
[3:20:07]It has to be very short.
[3:20:11]In terms of recent military responsibility for you,
[3:20:18]how would you describe your strength now?
[3:20:22]You know, I read the...
[3:20:24]Is it strategy, operations, tactics?
[3:20:29]How do you think about Putin for dinner?
[3:20:35]Or tea or vodka?
[3:20:38]You know, you can meet somewhere.
[3:20:40]Are you going to be in Paris?
[3:20:41]We should have...
[3:20:42]We should make a plan
[3:20:44]to meet sometime in the next two months.
[3:20:47]I can just tell him I would like to meet with you.
[3:20:49]That's it.
[3:20:50]Right.
[3:20:51]He will say come.
[3:20:53]But you're saying nothing...
[3:20:55]He will say come.
[3:20:57]Right.
[3:20:58]He loves to sit with me.
[3:21:00]Right.
[3:21:01]And talk with someone
[3:21:04]because he doesn't trust you.
[3:21:08]He takes one of his personal...
[3:21:09]What was the next point?
[3:21:15]The question I want to know is in terms of your military competence.
[3:21:20]Yeah.
[3:21:21]Let me tell you.
[3:21:22]I sat down yesterday for the second time,
[3:21:25]a week earlier in Tel Aviv,
[3:21:27]with the lady who runs Popin Marti.
[3:21:30]And I talked to her about directions in Damdown Street.
[3:21:43]The risk that the F-35 is the last.
[3:21:46]Probably many countries will not buy it.
[3:21:53]And even those who bought it might.
[3:21:55]So reluctant to see a reduction in performance
[3:22:01]or climbing prices.
[3:22:05]And basically,
[3:22:06]unlike the situation 20 years ago,
[3:22:08]the decision makers are not really looking for fighters
[3:22:11]that will win a war
[3:22:12]because they don't believe that there will be a war with them.
[3:22:16]Right.
[3:22:17]In the life cycle of the airplane.
[3:22:19]So they are ready to settle for something much simpler,
[3:22:24]cheaper,
[3:22:25]that still flies.
[3:22:27]And then...
[3:22:28]Yes.
[3:22:29]And I talked to her about the need to balance.
[3:22:35]I thought...
[3:22:37]I looked at her.
[3:22:39]She's an intelligent woman that was pushed under the circumstances into the top role.
[3:22:45]I think that no one at her leadership talks to her this way
[3:22:52]without insulting her or something.
[3:22:56]Right, right.
[3:22:57]Much more authority,
[3:22:58]not to disturb,
[3:22:59]not to attack.
[3:23:00]Not to follow the industry as the generation before.
[3:23:04]And she was just...
[3:23:05]And she's not very fast.
[3:23:07]She's almost 60.
[3:23:08]And with such a wide kind of penetrating,
[3:23:14]thoughtful insights about what is going to happen.
[3:23:20]What should be the fraction of dependence on contracts from the Pentagon
[3:23:26]and to what extent.
[3:23:28]What should be balanced between F-16.
[3:23:31]Which they are now grossed 4500 or so.
[3:23:36]And the F-22 that ended.
[3:23:38]And the F-35 that will be a...
[3:23:41]I don't believe that it will become popular.
[3:23:44]But no one has the money to pay for it.
[3:23:48]Except for us.
[3:23:50]You see, Canada.
[3:23:52]Do you really believe that Canadians really see that they will have to order it flying
[3:23:58]against the health of Tupolev?
[3:24:00]Of course.
[3:24:04]And for some of the Arabs,
[3:24:05]it will become a kind of token of prestige to have the best peace,
[3:24:09]but not more.
[3:24:11]And I told you about the need to find what should be done
[3:24:16]and what's going to happen in the...
[3:24:19]Yes.
[3:24:24]I have the combination.
[3:24:25]It's not policy.
[3:24:27]I have the combination of insights into the strategic level of it.
[3:24:33]But very deep understanding,
[3:24:36]detailed understandings of technology.
[3:24:38]To tactics.
[3:24:40]To the use.
[3:24:41]And to the...
[3:24:42]Even the fallacies.
[3:24:43]Why Boeing failed after investing probably 5 billion in future combat system for the
[3:24:46]ground forces.
[3:24:47]And how such an issue should be approached in order not to repeat mistakes.
[3:24:48]Right.
[3:24:49]So in a way it can be strategic,
[3:24:50]but with a lot of deep...
[3:24:51]No.
[3:24:52]...finger,
[3:24:53]finger,
[3:24:54]finger,
[3:24:55]finger,
[3:24:56]finger,
[3:24:57]finger,
[3:24:58]finger,
[3:24:59]finger,
[3:25:00]finger,
[3:25:01]finger,
[3:25:02]finger,
[3:25:03]finger,
[3:25:04]finger,
[3:25:05]finger,
[3:25:06]finger,
[3:25:07]finger,
[3:25:08]finger,
[3:25:09]finger,
[3:25:10]figure,
[3:25:11]finger,
[3:25:12]finger,
[3:25:13]finger.
[3:25:14]It needs to be outside of theRL headquarters office to understand what's feasible and what's
[3:25:15]not feasible.
[3:25:16]What's needed, what are forces of sophisticated countries we need in order to fight.
[3:25:17]Not the previous world, the future ones that they have.
[3:25:20]You know I'm...
[3:25:21]But could you sit on the board of Martin Mariano?
[3:25:26]I don't know.
[3:25:27]I didn't check it.
[3:25:29]Probably not...
[3:25:30]If I did it immediately it would...
[3:25:31]Right.
[3:25:32]...it's a little bit bizarre.
[3:25:34]When the Americans...
[3:25:35]Because I...
[3:25:36]I'd say...
[3:25:37]We all had a kind of...
[3:25:38]When the Americans buy, give Israel $2 billion, with the requirement that 75% of it gets bought,
[3:25:46]buys American stuff, how does that actually work?
[3:25:49]It works.
[3:25:50]We run through the operational system, the priorities there, I approve it, and I sign
[3:25:56]the order, the signing of the contracts.
[3:26:00]So I think it would be a little bit strange, but in fact we had some of the general manager
[3:26:06]former Air Force commander, general manager of the Ministry of Defense, ended up being
[3:26:16]now a major kind of high-level consultant for Boeing, or the president of Boeing Israel,
[3:26:26]for whatever it is, and his wife.
[3:26:29]But I just mention it as an example.
[3:26:33]Probably after a year I can do it, or probably I can do it.
[3:26:36]If it's clear that I'm not going to deal in any way with Israel.
[3:26:41]Yeah, exactly.
[3:26:42]But in terms of your defense…
[3:26:44]You know, look, for example, at the drones.
[3:26:48]I am the person who basically made it fly.
[3:26:53]By 30…
[3:26:54]I don't know.
[3:26:55]I don't know.
[3:26:56]I don't know.
[3:26:57]I don't know.
[3:26:58]I don't know.
[3:26:59]I don't know.
[3:27:00]I don't know.
[3:27:01]I don't know.
[3:27:02]I don't know.
[3:27:03]I don't know.
[3:27:04]I don't know.
[3:27:05]I don't know.